Is the Anan peace plan simply a way for the international community to delay taking difficult decisions on the Syrian crisis, asks Bassel Oudat in Damascus Six weeks ago, the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad agreed to the peace plan put forward by UN and Arab League special envoy to the country, former UN secretary-general Kofi Anan, which the international community had hoped would diminish the bloodshed in the country and lead to a solution to the crisis. Two weeks ago, the first group of UN monitors arrived in Syria amid fears that the Syrian government had not implemented the first of the six points agreed to under the plan. Meanwhile, Syrian opposition forces said that nearly 500 civilians had died in the country since the UN monitors began their mission and that thousands had also fled to neighbouring countries. The opposition insists that the regime does not intend to adhere to the ceasefire or implement the first point in the Anan plan, which demands the withdrawal of military forces and heavy artillery from the country's towns and cities. The opposition doubts that the regime will implement the other stipulations in the Anan plan either, adding that the plan neither forces the regime to withdraw its heavy artillery from civilian districts nor to stop the onslaught on civilians who are still being killed, injured or arrested. The number of UN monitors working in Syria has risen from six at the beginning of April to 30 by the end of the same month. General Robert Mood, head of the UN inspectors, arrived in Syria earlier this week, announcing that the mission would work with all parties to implement all six articles in the Anan plan. Mood added that the number of monitors would also soon rise to 300. However, despite such statements from the UN team, the Syrian opposition has asserted that the monitoring mission has already failed, despite the rising number of inspectors. The problem is not just that their numbers are too few, but that the regime has so far only allowed in the monitors while doing nothing to implement the other five points in the plan, originally passed as one integrated package, the opposition claims. The opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) has urged the UN Security Council to pass a resolution targeting Syria under chapter VII of the UN Charter and called on the Arab states and international community to protect the Syrian people by all means possible, even if this means circumventing the Security Council. Syria is threatened with collapse if the crisis is not resolved soon, the SNC has said. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has demanded the suspension of Syria's membership of the UN General Assembly and the withdrawal of recognition of President al-Assad as head of state. Syria under Al-Assad should be viewed as being under the control of a "rogue regime", it said, that had hijacked state and society. In a meeting at the end of last week, Arab foreign ministers reiterated their support for the Anan plan, demanding that the Syrian government implement the plan and live up to its obligations, notably by not placing conditions on the monitoring group or hindering its mission. The ministers also called on the UN Security Council to speed up the deployment of inspectors in Syria. Meanwhile, some observers have warned that protesters against the Syrian regime could be running out of options because there is nothing that can force the regime to implement the Anan plan. That being so, observers say, the protesters have little other option but to continue their protests in the hope that the regime can be overthrown from within. Ali Abdallah, a leader of the opposition Damascus Declaration for Democratic Change (DDDC), described the Anan plan as "time out", adding that the regime would only implement those parts that suited it and would soon revert to its security and military crackdown. The opposition should prepare for the moment when confrontations begin again, Abdullah said. "The Anan plan was born at a delicate moment," he told Al-Ahram Weekly. "This was when the domestic balance of power was at equilibrium, since the regime was unable to defeat the revolutionaries, and the revolutionaries were unable to overthrow the regime. The Anan plan is thus a "time-out" plan, pending agreement or disagreement by the world powers about further confrontation with the regime." Abdallah, a political prisoner in Syria for many years, added that the opposition "should be cautious and not believe that the plan will succeed on the ground. The regime will not comply with it and will blame the opposition for its failure. It will probably return to its military and security crackdown. This means that the opposition must be ready when confrontations begin again, so that it does not find itself in jeopardy." It is not only the Syrian regime that may be trying to buy time, and many other parties to the crisis are also apparently biding their time as well. Commentators claim that the UN, the US and the West in general, as well as the Arab League, are all convinced that the Anan plan will not be implemented and are only supporting it because of a lack of alternatives. Washington recently again expressed its "frustration" over the failure by Damascus to uphold its obligations under the Anan plan, indicating that it would return to the Security Council if the plan failed. However, any such move would meet Russian and Chinese opposition. Russian criticism of the Syrian opposition has escalated over recent days, notably when the country's foreign ministry accused the opposition of "resorting to terrorist tactics," adding that it should be crushed "with an iron fist." Not only have none of the points in the Anan plan thus far been implemented, but observers also believe that the majority of them are unclear. Neither the UN nor the Syrian government has published the exact terms of the plan or the terms of the mandate of the monitors expected to verify its implementation. It is not clear whether Syria is able to reject some inspectors on the grounds of their nationality, or whether international organisations will be allowed to deliver humanitarian aid. No deadline has been set for the release of the thousands of detainees thought to be in Syrian prisons, and nothing has been agreed about the future of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), largely composed of defectors from the regular Syrian army. The plan gives no details of dialogue with the opposition in Syria, and it does not specify how, or when, the country's political transition should begin. Meanwhile, there are fears among the international community that the situation in Syria will become increasingly militarised, with some countries calling for the arming of the country's opposition and others being hesitant to do so. There are fears that Syria could fragment as a result of the crisis, potentially destabilising the whole region. However, for the time being all political, religious and ethnic sects in Syria are participating in the protests, and Syrian opposition spokesmen have said that Syrian society is more cohesive than it might appear to be to western analysts. Conditions in Syria remain grim, with one leader of the Coordination Authority for the Forces of Democratic Change telling the Weekly that "it is clear that Anan's initiative failed in its first week. The regime has refused to withdraw its military forces and heavy artillery from the cities, and it has tried to break the plan down into parts instead of implementing it as a complete package." "In this way, it has avoided crucial elements of the plan, such as stopping the violence, withdrawing the army, releasing prisoners, allowing peaceful demonstrations to take place, protecting civilians, and creating an atmosphere conducive to dialogue that will lead to a democratic and pluralist political regime in Syria." The UN Security Council, Arab League, Russia, China, the US, Europe and others all "realise the plan will fail, and they are simply buying time until better conditions come about. Everyone knows the plan has already failed. They are just keeping quiet about it," the leader said.
