A clouded political future puts the damper on Libyan democratisation, concludes Gamal Nkrumah Libya, Africa's wealthiest country per capita, and the continent's largest oil producer, is sadly unable to build a stronger safety net for its own citizens and allow wages to rise. The country is in an economic mess, desperately in need of reconstruction and rehabilitation after a debilitating civil war that lasted for much of 2011. Yet, Libya is anaemic and its agonies have been attracting the hostile attention of the Bretton Woods institutions. The evidence of recovery is not encouraging. The new Libyan ruling clique has much more to do in order to meet the even greater challenge of re-balancing its oil-dependent economy. The sooner they start the better. Political instability and the lack of security in vast stretches of the sprawling country further complicate matters. Fresh from announcing last Saturday that the final draft of the electoral law, Libya's ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) promptly declared that no seats would be reserved for women in the country's new parliament. The electoral law is designed to form the General National Congress -- Libya's first constituent assembly since the fall of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Women's rights groups had long protested against the law saying that it is condescending and thus discriminates against women, but political observers suspect that the decision was due in large measure to pressure from Libya's largest and most influential post-Gaddafi political group -- the Muslim Brotherhood. "The NTC adopted the electoral law. The new law has abandoned the ten per cent quota for women," explained NTC member Mukhtar Abdel-Jaddal. "The Muslim Brotherhood is the only political group that can have a majority in the next election," conceded another NTC member Fathi Baja. Meanwhile, protesters stormed the NTC offices in Benghazi, Libya's second city and the birthplace of the uprising that ultimately led to the killing of Gaddafi and the end of his 42 year iron-fisted rule. Political parties were banned under Gaddafi's socialist system of "Jamahiriya" where popular assemblies theoretically governed the country. The anti-NTC protesters in Benghazi threw homemade hand grenades on the grounds of the NTC headquarters compound in Benghazi and demanded that all members of the NTC with the notable exception of the NTC head Mustafa Abdel-Jalil resign. The NTC on Monday rejected the resignation of the ruling council's number two man Abdel-Hafez Ghoga who had offered to resign on 22 January after protesters singled him out for retribution. Ghoga had been the secretary of the solicitors' syndicate under Gaddafi and protesters suspected that he was still secretly loyal to the Gaddafi regime's collaborators, a charge Ghoga vehemently denies. The longer Libya's political deadlock continues, the more disturbing are the signs that the country will inevitably be embroiled in a bitter civil war. Libya's new leaders, the NTC, will however, buy time. Protesters are angry that reconstruction has hardly begun. They insist that the NTC should use this hiatus to begin the structural reforms the Libyan economy desperately needs. Victims of the devastating civil war that led to Gaddafi's political demise are already disgruntled and are venting their frustration on the NTC, widely viewed as incompetent. Libya has only three rehabilitation centres for the war veterans. One might expect that this winter of growing discontent to be a cause of concern for the NTC. In reality, the ruling Council is closing ranks even as the country is in disarray. The authorities congratulate themselves for ridding the country of Gaddafi and his henchmen. However, celebrations should be tempered. How far do the NTC's actions go towards meeting the needs of ordinary Libyans and in particular the demands of the furious protesters? Higher international oil prices provide a cushion for the Libyan government's social welfare programmes initially implemented by the Gaddafi regime. Yet not everything is unfolding to the NTC's satisfaction. Students at the University of Tarhouna hoisted Gaddafi's green flag and chanted slogans eulogising the late Libyan leader and lamenting the dismantling of the social welfare system he founded. Since belatedly accepting the need to act, the NTC has awoken to the truism that Gaddafi's health, education and social welfare system were of pivotal importance to many Libyans. Supporters of Gaddafi's now defunct system of government overran the city of Bani Walid, one of the last strongholds of Gaddafi to fall into the hands of his adversaries. They held the city for three days until it was recaptured by troops loyal to the NTC. Meanwhile, in Gaddafi's own birthplace of Sirte, Gaddafi loyalists assassinated the NTC military commander Jamal Al-Sherif. It is suspected that members of the increasingly powerful Green Resistance, formerly Gaddafi's army, is targeting high-profile NTC officials and military commanders in a campaign of vengeance against those who killed Gaddafi. The Green Resistance appears to be active in various parts of the sprawling desert country. Tribes such as the Tuareg of southern Libya in particular are being instigated by the Green Resistance to rise up in arms against the NTC and those who collaborated with NATO forces during last year's aggression against Libya. It is against this tumultuous backdrop that the NTC announced that it is to reassess the entire diplomatic corps of Libya. Those suspected of being loyal to Gaddafi's regime will be relieved of their posts. The NTC also stated that it would name a new list of ambassadors of Libya abroad. Yet problems remain. The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) is coming under increasing pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to hasten its reforms. "The [NTC] government can afford to finance elevated current spending in the short-term," a recent IMF mission to Libya report concluded. The report also noted that "despite the removal of UN sanctions on the CBL, the public sector's financial situation remains precarious". The release of $150 billion in Gaddafi regime assets frozen during the NATO aggression against Libya has not been put to good use and ordinary Libyans are becoming increasingly impatient and agitated. The NTC's initial sigh of relief that Gaddafi was dead has now metamorphosed into a cry of despair. Libyans are now eagerly awaiting a crisis-induced fiscal stimulus package by the NTC. The wearing-off of Gaddafi's regular stimulus measures has also contributed to the country's political instability. Higher international oil prices provide a cushion for the Libyan government's social welfare programmes initially implemented by the Gaddafi regime. The Green Resistance is reminding Libyans of the golden days of the Gaddafi regime. To mitigate the risk of a general insurrection, the NTC is now focussing on accelerating the pace of Western-style multi-party democracy. However, few political groups are prepared to launch fully-fledged political parties. Yet the NTC must listen to the Libyan people. Disgruntlement continues to suck up much of the country's productive energy. The Green Resistance's star is rising. Partly in response to such developments, the NTC is combining measures that seem to contradict each other. Small wonder something feels not quite right in the post-Gaddafi Libya.
