Cronyism and corruption may be the hallmarks of the Gaddafi regime, but NATO's military option is likely to backfire, suspects Gamal Nkrumah The Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi needs a deft hand to mend the deep fissures his desert land has cracked into under the intense aerial bombardment of NATO. Nevertheless, Gaddafi has tended to claim as his due his opponents' loyalty with a heady mix of brutish force, cronyism, nepotism and nostalgic sentimentality. However, the question uppermost in his foes' minds is who is actually arming Gaddafi these days? According to his archenemies -- the monarchies, emirates and sheikdoms of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Algeria is the main supplier of arms and ammunition to Gaddafi's Libya. Ironically, the GCC states were exceptionally nervous when it became clear that the Zein Al-Abidine bin Ali and Mubarak regimes were fast fading away in Tunisia and Egypt respectively. Still, the GCC states cannot wait to see the back of Gaddafi. They want him ousted at all costs. They keep their distance from Algeria, courting its traditional enemy Morocco, going so far as to invite the Arab world's westernmost kingdom to join the exclusive club of wealthy monarchies. Algeria, like Gaddafi's Libya, is armed to the teeth with Russian weaponry. Except that the weapons Russia sells Algeria are far superior to those it dumped on Gaddafi's Libya. It seems that what NATO unwittingly is doing is to refurbish Gaddafi with newer and more sophisticated weaponry from Algeria and getting rid of his outdated Russian implements of war. Gaddafi's troops are far less disciplined and far more poorly armed than Algeria's armed forces. Yet, in comparison to the ragtag militias of the Libyan opposition forces, they appear to be Prussians. It is an open secret that without NATO backing all resistance to Gaddafi would have crumbled within weeks of the Libyan uprising. The National Transitional Council (NTC) is incapable of charting the transition process to a post-Gaddafi Libya without tremendous Western backing. The series of NATO aerial attacks in cities across Gaddafi-held territory has claimed scores of lives, hundreds perhaps even more, highlighting the threat posed by Western combat operations in the country. NATO is ruthlessly using its superior air power to crush pro-Gaddafi forces. Unsurprisingly, many Libyans are wary of the risks attached to open alliance between the NTC and NATO. The European Union foreign policy chief Lady Catherine Ashton flew to Benghazi to meet with NTC leaders. She met with Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, chairman of the NTC and other senior defectors of the Gaddafi regime. Lady Ashton's visit to Benghazi coincided with the deployment by the French and the British of Apache helicopters in their fight to finish off the pro-Gaddafi forces. The determination and strategic vision with which Gaddafi sought to resurrect the indomitable spirit of Omar Al-Mukhtar, legendary leader of the Libyan anti-colonial struggle, means that the NATO forces have not been especially effective in fighting the pro-Gaddafi forces. The Libyan leader has so far held his ground. The first practical step in putting an end to Gaddafi, one would assume, is for the West to reinforce the under-resourced NTC army. Curiously enough, the NATO troops have not wholeheartedly gone to the support of the NTC troops. The NTC's expectations of Western support are unrealistic. Many Libyans regard the NTC's Western sponsors as a political liability. The Western nations are beginning to grumble about funding the NTC's campaign to oust Gaddafi. The costs of combating Gaddafi are fast escalating and Washington is not prepared to foot the bill. How can the international community help Libya pull back from the brink? The oil-rich Arab Gulf states are prepared to assist, but not the Western powers. Taking Tripoli, NATO bigwigs reason, will provide Libyans with the opportunity to engage in national reconciliation, which is nonsense. True reconciliation is particularly difficult at this point because NATO is after Gaddafi's head. The international media plays a poisonous role projecting Gaddafi now as a leader who looks hopelessly out of touch with his people. By seeking to crush dissent with brutal force, he has incurred the wrath of many segments of the Libyan population, the fib goes. Devolved decision-making is required in such a sprawling country as Libya. With rising food and fuel prices, the restive Libyan people are fast losing confidence in their leader's capacity to fend off his foes and Gaddafi has now become ever more dependent on his traditional tribal and personal patronage rather than on the persuasive power of his Green Book ideology. However, the suggestion by Gaddafi's cronies that he is irreplaceable or that he can only be replaced by one of his sons, quite frankly, does not wash. This scenario of there not being a suitable substitute for Gaddafi, especially in light of the Egyptian, Syrian and Yemeni experience, confirms that potential leaders of varied ideological orientations are waiting in the wings. Gaddafi is in the doldrums, in dire straits, but he is not done with. He is fast heading towards a hellish end. However, he is not quite there yet. Gaddafi's popularity while dented even in Tripoli, Sirte and the remaining bastions of his regime, is still real. He has his henchmen and hangers-on. They are not prepared to prepare the ground for his successor. Not yet. The political impasse is stirring tribal tensions and giving militant Islamists an opportunity to exploit the power vacuum in the vast swathes of the country now considered no man's land. Basic services in Libya are in a dire state. And Gaddafi has few allies, with the notable exception of neighbouring Algeria. Yet, Algeria, too, has its own domestic concerns. Chief among Algeria's anxieties is the security situation in the Saharan region. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is the major headache of Algeria's leaders at the moment. AQIM fighters have taken advantage of the lawlessness and political flux in Libya. Algeria -- in conjunction with Mali, Mauritania, and Niger -- convened a meeting to discuss ways of containing the AQIM threat. It is in this context that Algeria is coordinating with the Libyan authorities to patrol their common borders. "The border with Libya has become an Algerian national security issue," declared Algeria's Interior Minister Dahou Ould Kablia recently. "The Algerian army has taken precautions," Kablia did not elaborate. However, it is clear that a large-scale surveillance security operation along the 900km long joint Algerian-Libyan border is being beefed up. Both regimes pose as leftist and abhor the Islamists. Algeria is also concerned about street protests. It is difficult to reconcile the secular socialism of Algiers and Tripoli with political Islam. As anger rises to boiling point in the zengas, or alleyways, of Libyan cities still largely loyal to Gaddafi, including the capital Tripoli, it would be politically suicidal for the opponents of the Libyan leader widely seen as stooges and lackeys of the imperialists to try and penetrate Gaddafi's strongholds. The NTC's Western backers should be urging their allies to focus on a peaceful transition if their plan for a post-Gaddafi Libya is to metamorphose into reality. "Under the economic policies of the Obama administration those who have the least are losing the most and those who have the most are getting even more," former US Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney succinctly put it. "The last thing we need to do is spend money on death, destruction and war." The irrational use of scarce resources for bellicose purposes is damaging in the extreme and results in the draining and wastage of Libya's tremendous oil wealth. Meanwhile, the nature of the NTC is not clear as far as its ideological orientation is concerned. There are vital social issues that are pending the clarification of NTC positions and perspectives, not to mention the whims of the personalities in charge. Gaddafi paid lip service to progressive causes such as improving the status of women in Libyan society. Yet, he did little to put women in positions of power and authority. Yes, there was his all-female bodyguard battalion. And, there was the token woman minister or two. But, generally speaking even though educational standards of women improved substantially under Gaddafi, women were far from active in the decision-making processes. The NTC is ambivalent about the role of women in a post-Gaddafi Libya. Women occupy only two of some 40 positions of leadership in the upper echelons of the NTC. Both portfolios are far from being high-profile or consequential. Even so, the negative perception of the NTC's role in collaborating with Western imperialists has been exacerbated by the visit to Benghazi, headquarters of the NTC, by Lady Ashton. The security situation in NTC-controlled territory remains volatile. And, the world is beginning to wonder what the Libyan leader's end may be. The Pan-Arab television satellite channels such as Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya -- in keeping with their sponsors, solidly anti-Gaddafi -- insist Gaddafi might turn out to be a robber baron ostensibly of the same ilk as Egypt's Mubarak and Tunisia's Bin Ali, though they might look closer to home for ill- gotten wealth. The Libyan leader denies wrongdoing. Whatever the story, Gaddafi could escape a planned prosecution on corruption and human rights abuses charges under a deal -- as yet not agreed. Or is it too late? A deal would amount to an admission of guilt by Gaddafi, something he is averse to. To win, all Gaddafi has to do at this point is not lose. His enemies are increasingly in disarray and embarrassed by their patently imperial venture. US participation is already illegal according to the law that all combat operations must be approved by Congress within 60 days. The mouse that roared is capturing the world's imagination and looks likely to force his attackers to back down and negotiate. He has been cowed and cannot go back to his old ways. Keeping Al-Qaeda at bay will be much more difficult if the Libyan state is further weakened. And only the most cynical plotters in the West actually want to see Libya fall apart, a likely fate if the present stand-off continues much longer.
