Seven months after the start of the Syrian uprising, what are the prospects for the Al-Assad regime, asks Bassel Oudat in Damascus The violent repression used by the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to halt the popular protests that have been taking place across the country over the past seven months seems to be failing to achieve its aim, with protests still taking place in most Syrian towns and cities and international efforts increasing to put pressure on the regime. EU and US sanctions against Syria have been increased over recent weeks, and now Arab states are firming up their positions. The Syrian regime is being increasingly affected by the economic sanctions against it, commentators say, with effects being felt throughout the country. Meanwhile, defections from the armed forces have become an almost daily occurrence, even as the regime continues its campaign against peaceful demonstrators demanding freedom, justice and democracy and rejecting outside intervention. The regime has been given multiple opportunities to reform, starting with an offer of Turkish mediation and Ankara's assistance in drawing up a timetable for reform. However, the government in Damascus has either rejected or ignored such mediation efforts, leading Turkey to threaten its own sanctions against the country. An Arab initiative that would have supported Al-Assad's staying in power until 2014 if he undertook reforms and put an end to the military violence was also rejected, with Damascus telling Arab leaders not to interfere in Syria's internal affairs. The Arab League's second Arab initiative this week was also rejected by the Syrian regime. According to commentators, the Syrian regime has been turning down all offers of mediation, whether Arab, Turkish, or Russian, on the grounds that withdrawing its military and security forces from the country's towns and cities and recognising the legitimacy of the popular protest movement would fatally weaken it and lead to its overthrow. The Syrian regime, controlled by the ruling Syrian Baath Party, has kept its control of the country over the past four decades through security agencies employing as many as half a million people and a tightly controlled army of more than half a million. The regime also controls a network of beneficiaries willing to fight for it to hold onto power, with such people perhaps totaling one million. Since the demonstrations started in March, the Syrian military has been operating a shoot-to-kill policy against the protesters, seeking to intimidate them into returning to their homes and abandoning the streets to the control of the regime. There has been no shred of evidence that the regime will change its ways, and it continues to refuse to admit that the popular uprising and the demands by Syrians for freedom, democracy and justice are part of a wider political crisis. Earlier this month, the UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) announced that the actions of the Syrian regime in repressing the protests had led to the deaths of more than 3,000 people, including at least 187 children, warning that continuation could lead the country to all- out civil war. Nonetheless, even after six months of bloody confrontations with its own people, the regime has been unable to defeat the street protests, and its isolation from the international community has grown. Calls have been made both in Syria and abroad for international intervention in the crisis, or for international protection of Syrian civilians, though the ways in which this might take place remain unclear. Meanwhile, there have been incidents of Syrians taking up weapons against the regime's "death squads," which have been using live ammunition against protesters. Observers say that the uprising at present has no obvious end-point, though the protesters insist they will continue until the fall of the regime. "Syria's leadership has rejected all counsel from Arab, Turkish and European allies," Hassan Abdel-Azim, general coordinator of the opposition Democratic Forces for Change in Syria, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "It is determined to keep Syria under its control, as it did before the uprising began. It is determined to maintain its monopoly on power and to continue killing and suppressing the people in order to do so. However, this cannot continue forever: tyranny has been deposed elsewhere in the region, and the Syrian regime cannot be the only exception." "The revolution must prevail, and an alternative national and democratic regime must come to power that represents all popular forces. The people must be the source of power and sovereignty in Syria" While Abdel-Azim is confident that the Syrian regime cannot survive the protests against it, observers believe that more bloodshed is likely as the protests continue, with demonstrators saying that were they to end their protests now any loss of life would be even higher. Should the protests end, the regime will simply arrest all those who took part, the protesters say, meaning that there is no way back for either side in the conflict. According to a blog started by the British ambassador in Damascus, the Syrian regime will do anything to continue in power, attempting to conceal from the world the killings, arrests and human rights violations it is committing against those opposing its rule. "This regime is determined to maintain its control over all aspects of political life in Syria," the ambassador wrote. "It is accustomed to power, and it will do anything to keep it." For its part, Washington has said that the Syrian regime is "over," criticising it for not being serious about reforming the country. "Everything the regime is doing is cosmetic. It would be a delusion to suppose that there is any intention to reform or that the reform process is underway," Anwar Al-Bonni, director of the Syrian Centre for Legal Studies and Research, said. "However, the regime cannot remain in power without the participation of a society in which everyone has a share in decisions. The peaceful rotation of power, one of the key demands of the demonstrators, would help build a plural democratic society." Syrian opposition sources say that Syrian society has begun to divide between those who are opposed to the regime and those who are loyal to it, as well as along sectarian, party and other lines. Such fractures will inevitably lead to a weakening of the country, these sources say, adding that as long as the Al-Assad regime remains in power the economy will continue to be bled dry and the country will continue to suffer immense human losses.
