Turmoil in the Middle East has spurred Iraqi Kurds to increase calls for an independent Kurdish state, though in this they may be bluffing, says Salah Nasrawi Only a few hours after South Sudan was declared independent last July, Iraqi Kurdish leaders were quick to join world governments in congratulating its leaders, expressing the hope that the birth of the new state would put their own decades-long fight for independence into perspective. The enthusiasm voiced by the two Kurdish leaders seems to reflect a belief among Iraqi Kurds that the southern Sudanese model could be an example for their own aspirations for a state eight years after the US-led invasion of Iraq that empowered the autonomous northern region. Iraqi Kurds have long demonstrated their determination to be recognised as a separate nation and to gain independent statehood. But the notion of an independent Kurdish state has been widely dismissed as unrealistic, largely due to opposition by their unhappy neighbours. On Saturday, thousands of Iraqi Kurds demonstrated in the northern city of Sulaimaniya demanding independence for the autonomous Kurdish region. The demonstrators urged the Kurdish regional government to declare its independence and ask the United Nations for recognition. They also called for an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq to be a launching pad for a national Kurdish entity that would include Kurds in Iran, Syria and Turkey, the other three Middle Eastern countries that have large Kurdish minorities. The organisers of the rally are little known local nationalist groups, but their message seemed to be clear enough to reflect the transformation of the Kurds from being an Iraqi self-ruled minority into a more independent people. On 13 July, Kurdish groups urged the UN to hold a referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, similar to the referendum held in South Sudan last year that paved the way for the birth of the new Sudanese state. Other groups claimed that there had already been a semi-official referendum in the Kurdistan region during the Iraqi general elections in 2005, in which 98 per cent of the people in Kurdistan had opted for independence. In a speech before his party conference in December Barzani said that the next conference would discuss Kurdish self-determination, sparking condemnation from Iraqi Arabs but support from Kurds. The calls for Kurdish independence seem to have built on a host of local and regional events connected to troubles triggered by the Arab Spring and the major regional geopolitical shifts that many observers expect this will unleash. The Iraqi Kurds, who have been cherishing a degree of autonomy that never existed before the American invasion of Iraq, may now be trying to exploit the opportunity created by broader Middle Eastern turmoil to secede from Iraq. Yet, the question remains of how the Iraqi Kurds will be able to make this dream come true, raising concerns that this may be another miscalculation reminiscent of many that they have made before in their tireless pursuit of independence. Iraqi Kurds in tune with the demands for independence now include prominent political leaders and groups, and these argue that the autonomous status the Iraqi Kurds currently enjoy within Iraq is a short-term solution and that they should now move toward statehood. They further argue that Iraqi Arabs are opposed to a federal system, the decentralised political system enshrined in the post-Saddam constitution that they consider weakens the country. Pro-independence Kurds also think that their prospects for an independent state are better now than they were some years ago because they expect that the current Middle Eastern turmoil will bring more fragmentation to already divided nations. They hope that neighbouring Iran, Turkey and Syria, for now opposed to a Kurdish state, will be too busy dealing with problems resulting from pending regional disarray to stop moves towards Kurdish independence. Moreover, they believe that the United States, expected to remain in Iraq for years to come, will support the hoped-for state and may even station thousands of its troops in Kurdistan to defend it. On the surface, the Kurds have all the elements of a state, including land, people, government, army, and an economy that includes promising oil and gas resources. However, they lack a secure geostrategic situation and the balance of power that could be conducive to independence. Some critics argue that the pro-independence camp is ignoring important rules of the geopolitical game in the Middle East that have thus far hindered the establishment of an independent state of Kurdistan, and these rules could also be reinforced by the new kind of politics being born as a result of the Arab Spring. An independent Kurdistan would be a landlocked country, for example, with no access to the sea, and it would be surrounded by hostile countries. South Sudan cannot act as a model here, because most of its African neighbours are friendly and will give it access to the outside world. On the other hand, the Arab Spring is making its presence felt on the Middle Eastern political chess board, mainly because of the divides it has been deepening and the cross-border problems it has been arousing. Iran and Turkey, Kurdistan's giant and historically unfriendly neighbours, both look set to benefit from the turmoil, which could raise their regional status higher. If that happens even the Iraqi Kurds' present autonomy could be in jeopardy. Iran and Turkey are already responding to the discussions about Kurdish statehood in intriguing ways. Both countries have recently stepped up military pressure on Iraqi Kurds, claiming that they are fighting Kurdish guerrillas based in Iraqi Kurdistan. While Iranian troops have been chasing Iranian Kurdish guerrillas on the border with northern Iraq, Turkish war planes have also recently intensified bombings of Kurdish guerrilla positions in the same area, where Turkey says they have been operating. Some reports have suggested that Turkey, which has increased its coordination with Iran in the region, is also planning a ground operation in northern Iraq, many Turkish commentators already calling this "a legitimate act of self-defence." During their troubled history, the Kurds have turned a famous proverb that says that the "Kurds have no friends but the mountains" into a political strategy that has stirred up Kurdish nationalism and generated international sympathy and support. Yet, now there are signs that this storyline about Kurds not being able to trust outside powers may be giving way to another narrative about how the Kurds should be able to exploit rising opportunities in the Middle East in order to produce a unique and democratic society that will be a model for others. The Kurds, the world's largest ethnic group that does not have its own independent state, are entitled to self-determination, but the question is how and at what price. Evidence is accumulating today that suggests that the Middle East is going through one of its most dangerous periods, creating a new geopolitical equilibrium in the region. By drumming up demands for independence now, the Kurds may be aiming to exploit this regional turmoil for their own ends. But the bitter truth is that the Kurds will be better off if they stay away from adventurism or bluffing, at least for the time being.
