Dominated by Syria's allies, Lebanon's government sat firmly on the fence this week as Arab states turned the heat up on Damascus, reports Lucy Fielder from Beirut Last week's statement by the UN Security Council condemning Syria shone a spotlight on the split between Lebanon's Hizbullah-backed government and its anti-Syrian opponents, with Lebanon, a temporary member of the council, being the only country to abstain from the voting but still allowing it to pass. Such Security Council statements, which fall short of a full resolution, require unanimity in order to be issued, but the Lebanese government nevertheless avoided using its veto, preferring to sit on the fence instead. Its failure to vote for the statement condemning Syria was immediately slammed by the Lebanese opposition 14 March Movement, which was emboldened this week by Saudi Arabia's hardening stance. The movement's leader, former Lebanese prime minister Saad Al-Hariri, has joint Lebanese and Saudi citizenship, while Syria, along with its ally Iran, backs Hizbullah, Lebanon's powerful Shia group. After the vote, Lebanese Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour defended his government's position on Syria, which militarily and politically dominated Lebanon from the end of the civil war in 1990 until 2005, when the assassination of Al-Hariri's father Rafik led to pressure on Damascus to pull out. The 14 March Movement is named after a vast demonstration held in Lebanon on that date, during which Lebanese protesters held Syria responsible for the killing and demanded its withdrawal. Nevertheless, Syria, of which Lebanon was once a part, retains strong influence over the instability-plagued country and close links to several Lebanese parties. Further fuelling the opposition's ire, Mansour also visited Syria this week and met with the country's President Bashar Al-Assad. Analysts say that regional and international powers with a stake in Lebanon seem to see it as a special case and one that, given its fragile stability and close historical ties to its larger and more powerful neighbour, would be taking considerable risks were it to be seen to be associated with criticism of the Syrian regime. The same thing would likely hold true even if an Al-Hariri-led government was in place. According to Karim Makdisi, associate director of the American University of Beirut's Essam Fares Institute for Policy Studies, the Lebanese government had little choice but to abstain in the UN vote. Many Lebanese fear that if Syria were to slide into a sectarian civil war, this could inflame tensions between their own communities. Strife between Sunnis, who constitute about 70 per cent of Syria's population and make up the majority of the protesters on the streets, and Alawites, a sub-sect of Shia Islam that dominates the regime, could heighten tensions between Lebanon's own Sunni and Shia communities. Both countries also have Christian and Druze communities with strong cross-border ties. Hizbullah's MPs and their allies resigned from Al-Hariri's government in a dispute concerning the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) in January, causing it to collapse. Late last June, the STL issued indictments against four members of the Shia group suspected of being involved in Al-Hariri's killing, in which Hizbullah has denied taking any role. They then nominated Najib Mikati as the country's new prime minister, making use of swing votes provided by Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who defected from the March 14 Movement. Fears are growing in Lebanon that the escalating violence in Syria, with the uprising against the regime and the regime's crack-down now entering their fifth month, could spill over the border. Jumblatt, a weathervane whose shifting positions often reflect the regional climate, has reduced his pro-Syrian rhetoric from the early part of this year, reportedly re-establishing contacts with Al-Hariri. This week, Saudi Arabia withdrew its ambassador from Damascus and sharply condemned the violence in the country, with Bahrain and Kuwait immediately following suit. As the region's Sunni powers line up against Damascus, its ally in Beirut looks increasingly isolated, and it could become more so if the diplomatic battle starts to focus on Syria's alliance with Iran, the last friend of the regime not to have issued a warning to Al-Assad to stop the violence. Iran backs Hizbullah in Lebanon, as well as the Syrian Al-Assad regime. Salem said that for the moment Riyadh's actions remained on the diplomatic level, but should it choose to escalate in future by supporting the protesters in Syria, Lebanon would likely feel the impact and risk being used as a platform for any such action. For now, the still-rhetorical Saudi campaign has given the go-ahead to its allies in Beirut to step up their own verbal attacks on the Damascus leadership. The Al-Assad regime has consistently said that it is facing "armed gangs" trying to destabilise the country, and it has listed opponents in Lebanon as a source of weapons and "foreign infiltrators". Al-Hariri's backing of the Syrian opposition and protesters became more strident over the past week, and it is likely to remain so now that Arab backing for them has emerged, further isolating the Syrian government. Such developments could invigorate Al-Hariri's movement, which has looked powerless since his government collapsed in January. "Now that Saudi Arabia has taken this position, al-Hariri will be able to up his rhetoric and try to revive the spirit, as they see it, of March 14," Makdisi said. "They're trying to revitalise that constituency." In a statement following Saudi King Abdullah's statement critical of Syria, Al-Hariri called on the Lebanon's president and government not to "adopt the policies of oppression that the Syrian people are enduring." Since the protests in Syria began, Lebanon has witnessed various small demonstrations for and against the Syrian regime. Pro-regime thugs, believed to be associated with the ruling Syrian Baath Party, attacked a handful of non-aligned activists protesting against the crack-down outside the Syrian embassy in Hamra in west Beirut last week. They had chosen the location because it was associated neither with the Syrian-backed alliance, nor with 14 March, which some critics fear will try to co-opt the uprising for political ends. Many of these same activists stayed away from an anti-Syrian demonstration called for by a group of Lebanese intellectuals this week because it was being held in Martyrs Square, the location of the 2005 anti-Syrian demonstrations, and therefore strongly associated with the opposition. Between 300-500 demonstrators nevertheless met in the Square to protest against the crack-down being carried out by the Syrian regime. Makdisi said Lebanon was now under pressure, with the government being boxed in on all sides. "There's a lot of fear hovering over the country, of US pressure on Lebanese banks, of what Gulf investors in Lebanon will do," he said. "If we're reaching a tipping point in Syria, then something will have to give and Lebanon will also have to come off the fence."
