The mass resignation of the Turkish military high command last week sent a shock wave through Turkish politics, but the real test lies ahead, writes Gareth Jenkins in Ankara Last Friday evening, the chief of the Turkish general staff and the commanders of the Turkish army, navy and air force all tendered their resignations in protest at the continuing detention of 250 serving and retired military officers on allegations that they were plotting a coup against the government of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The military's mass resignation has no precedent in Turkey and is yet another demonstration of how much the balance of power has shifted in recent years, since for most of Turkey's modern history any confrontation between the military and the civilian government would have been likely to lead to the resignation of the politicians, not the generals. However, the events that prompted the military's resignations suggest that, far from moving towards a liberal democracy, Turkey is rapidly exchanging a military form of authoritarianism for a civilian one. Over recent months, the Turkish military high command has become increasingly frustrated by a string of legal cases alleging that members of the officer corps, together with civilian opponents of the AKP, have been plotting to overthrow the government. Although the Turkish military has a record of forcing civilian governments from office, most recently in 1997, none of the cases has produced any convincing evidence of a genuine coup plot. Indeed, many of the allegations have been so absurd that they have not even been internally consistent. More disturbingly, there has been no doubt that some of the evidence has been fabricated and planted in the homes of the accused. Last month, a Turkish court grudgingly released a young lieutenant, Emrah Kucukakca, after he was able to prove that the police had planted evidence in his apartment. Yet, no attempt was made to investigate the police officers responsible, and, in a country where the media increasingly lives in fear of antagonising the powerful AKP, the incident was hardly mentioned in the Turkish press. A total of 173 serving and 77 retired members of the Turkish military are currently being held in prison on charges of allegedly plotting a coup. They include more than 10 per cent of the country's serving generals and admirals. None has yet been convicted on any charges. Appointments and promotions in the Turkish military are decided at an annual meeting of the country's Supreme Military Council (YAS), which convenes at the beginning of August each year. Under Turkish law, any state employee being held in prison cannot be considered for promotion, and as a result 14 generals and admirals and 58 colonels were ineligible for promotion at the YAS meeting that started on Monday. Most will be forced to take early retirement, and they cannot be reinstated even if they are eventually acquitted of the charges against them. Chief of staff general Isik Kosaner had repeatedly called on the AKP to release the officers during the trial process, so that they could at least be considered for promotion and reassignment at the YAS meeting, arguing that they should not be punished until they had been found guilty. He did not call for the trials to be halted. However, the AKP rejected Kosaner's requests, and last Friday evening Kosaner tendered his resignation, quickly followed by army commander general Erdal Ceylanoglu, navy commander admiral Ugur Yigit and air force commander Hassan Aksay. The resignations were announced in the early evening after the end of trading in order to minimise their impact on the financial markets. Originally, Kosaner had been due to retire in August 2013 and be replaced by general Necdet Ozel, an army officer who had been temporarily reassigned to command the country's gendarmerie in August 2010. Following Kosaner's resignation, Ozel was recalled from the gendarmerie and appointed acting chief of staff. Although they will have come as a shock to the AKP, in themselves the resignations are unlikely to provoke a political crisis. The YAS meeting opened on schedule on Monday morning, and it was expected to appoint new commanders of the army, navy and air force. However, there is little doubt that the organisational disruption represented by the resignations will undermine the operational capabilities of the military at a time when the morale of the officer corps has been damaged by the detention of so many of their colleagues. The real test for the AKP is likely to come over the weeks and months ahead. Although AKP supporters have hailed the resignations as a triumph of civilian control over the military, no country can afford the abrupt decapitation of its high command, and military sources have reported that more resignations cannot be ruled out. "Ozel is now in a very difficult position," said one of his former colleagues. "He is neither an interventionist, nor someone who feels ideologically close to the AKP. But if he confronts the AKP over these court cases, he may be forced to resign himself. If he doesn't, there will be many in the military who will accuse him of selling out his colleagues and putting his own career ambitions before loyalty to his friends." "It is the same for those who are now going to be promoted because so many people have resigned or are in jail. Everybody wants to be promoted, of course, but they want to feel that they have deserved it. It is a question of pride as well as loyalty. Nobody wants to face accusations that they only hold a position because they have exploited the unfair treatment of their friends," the military source said.
