The catastrophic famine engulfing the Horn of Africa is utterly predictable and the culprit is not climate change but despicable governance, conflict and international inertia, notes Gamal Nkrumah For all Washington's promises to stand firm against terrorism in the Horn of Africa, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wobbled as soon as international humanitarian assistance organisations gave off a whiff of serious panic concerning the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa. The dire consequences in the Horn are particularly poignant in Somalia and the geographically adjacent ethnic Somali inhabited regions in Ethiopia and Kenya. Clinton's main concern is the US-led war on terror and the consequences of such a policy have been catastrophic in that it diverted precious funds into militaristic activities. Instead of focussing on social and economic development and the strengthening of the civil society organisations and the institutional framework to create a strong as opposed to a failed Somali state, billions of dollars were diverted to hound terrorists and bring them to book. Begin with the figures. "An estimated three million people are directly threatened by famine and starvation in Somalia, and especially in the southern and central regions of the country. Another million people are affected in neighbouring countries, primarily Ethiopia and Kenya," Moe Hussein the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Somalia advisor told Al-Ahram Weekly. Hussein is currently touring the Horn of Africa region and is at present in Somaliland and Puntland, northern Somalia. "I am in Somalia on a UNDP mission to evaluate governance matters, including local governance performance and to find ways and means to strengthen institutional development," Hussein told the Weekly in a telephone conversation from one of the worst affected parts of Somalia. He firmly believes that poor institutional development and the failed state in Somalia as well as the conflict contributed directly to the accentuation of the humanitarian catastrophe in the country. "This is a man-made disaster. Somali officials and international policymakers have contributed to a crisis that could have been averted," Hussein laments. It is a truism of environmental disasters that you can seldom see a catastrophe in the making. We cannot for certain predict when the rains will fail and when famine will ensue. However, we surely can identify the forces pumping the catastrophe up. The dynamics behind famine in the Horn of Africa should set catastrophe alarm bells ringing. Hussein, for instance, stressed that the situation is relatively better in Somaliland and Puntland precisely because these two autonomous regions enjoy relative political stability and better institutional frameworks and more vibrant civil society activities that function better under the basic rule of law. People from conflict-ridden and lawless southern and central Somalia are moving to Somaliland and Puntland in search of food aid and basic humanitarian assistance. This, however, is proving to be a terrible strain for the municipal authorities in Puntland in particular, which is receiving the bulk of the displaced persons from southern and central Somalia. "The good governance question in Somalia needs to be seriously addressed. Bad governance is the major cause of the hindrance of aid delivery to the worst affected areas," Hussein pointed out. "Bad governance and lawlessness means that the cycle of famine and humanitarian catastrophe is shortened and long-term solutions are stalled." This prospect is sufficiently worrying to make it right to buy time to improve the security situation in Somalia. Unfortunately this hope does not stand up to scrutiny. "The Transitional National Government (TNG) is not doing what it should to remedy the deplorable humanitarian situation. I would like the TNG to show more concern for the plight of ordinary Somalis instead of bickering among themselves," Hussein complained. He noted that the TNG needed to set an agenda to deal with the recurrent problem of rain failure and water shortage. Against such unknowns, though, set one great certainty. The failed government in Somalia is the primary reason behind the exacerbation of the natural disaster. The devastating drought was completely foreseeable and the international community did absolutely nothing to ward off a fairly predictable amount of damage. Droughts will arrive bang on schedule every five years or so, warns Hussein. He is certain that disaster on the scale we are witnessing today cannot be averted unless prevention is a top policy priority by the governments of Somalia and the entire Horn of Africa region. That is not to dismiss the dangers of the ravages of nature. The sorry reality is that humanitarian salvage work by the international community -- and in particular Western powers and the oil-rich Gulf Arab states has started perilously late. In a sense, reflects Hussein, the Apocalyptic disaster comes at just the wrong time. "We do not expect heavy rains until September and October and in the meantime the Somali peasants, if they do have the energy, are expected to till the arable land in anticipation of the rains. The harvests are poor because the people are too hungry, malnourished and sick to cultivate the land in the traditional manner. They are forced to increasingly rely on food aid. Yes, Somalis need high protein biscuits, food aid, flour, cooking oil, dried pulses and other foodstuffs of high nutritional value. They also need readily available potable water." The international community's to-do list is now well known. This to-do list is alarmingly long. It is pointless to moan and groan about the worst drought in the Horn of Africa in 60 years. The ridiculous stereotypes of a region in abject poverty and the lurid images of skeletal Africans with begging bowls admittedly still have some claim on reality. The origins of the bloodshed in Somalia can be disputed, but the underlying causes of political deadlock are not. To make Somalia a shining success would be the best tribute to the millions of Somalis who perished in this and previous droughts. The refugee camp of Dadaab, a ramshackle complex of three adjoining makeshift camps in northeastern Kenya not far from the Somali border is testament to the tragedy of the Somali people. The humanitarian conditions in the camps are heartrending, and yet those who sought refuge in Dadaab are the fortunate few. The truly miserable Somalis are the unfortunate ones left behind either because they are too ill, too weak, old or too scared to make it to Dadaab. Internecine fighting has stopped hundreds of thousands of Somalis from fleeing their homeland to seek refuge in the relative safety of refugee camps in neighbouring countries. Ironically, Hussein believes that the military setbacks of the militant Islamist forces such as the Al-Shabab group has forced them to lift restrictions on halting the free passage of humanitarian assistance. "Somali people desperately need humanitarian help and in situations of conflict the poorest and most vulnerable segments of society stand to be worst off." Hibaaq Osman, head of the Cairo-based Karama and a Somali by birth, concurred. "Civil society organisations don't have the facilities and the proper funding to meet the needs of the Somali people even though they bear the brunt of the responsibility in the absence of government and official institutional frameworks," Osman told the Weekly. "We lack governments with a far-sighted vision. The food aid from Arab countries and the West is adding insult to injury as far as the Somali people are concerned. Food aid is short-term and enslaves our people making them utterly dependent on foreign assistance for their sustenance. We want long-term solutions."
