With unrest next door, the indictment of Hizbullah members is the last thing on people's minds, notes Lucy Fielder from Beirut Prime Minister Najib Miqati's Hizbullah-backed cabinet won a routine confidence vote on Thursday despite a walk-out by the opposition. Although it made no difference to the outcome, the protest in parliament foreshadowed the opposition's promised campaign to work to topple the government and raised the spectre of growing tensions in the country. Three days of sometimes stormy parliamentary debate over the cabinet's policy statement preceded the vote. MPs from both sides shone a spotlight on the issue of the hour, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to investigate the killing of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, which handed over its first indictments on 30 June. Four men, at least three of whom are linked to Hizbullah, are subject to arrest warrants issued by The Hague, which this week requested Interpol's help in detaining the suspects. Opposition MPs focussed their criticism on the vague clause of the policy statement that dealt with the tribunal, which promised to respect international commitments without affecting civil peace and stability. In the event it was sharpened slightly but still stopped short of expressing support for the tribunal. Al-Hariri's assassination tore Lebanon into two political camps, one dominated by Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah and another led by his son Saad and supported by Saudi Arabia and the United States. The latter camp, named 14 March after an anti-Syrian demonstration on that date in 2005, declined to join Miqati's government and is now in opposition. Miqati was nominated prime minister in February by Hizbullah's alliance after its ministers resigned and brought down a national unity cabinet headed by Saad Al-Hariri in January, as part of a row over the court. The spotlight for now is on how the government deals with the court. Analysts have long expected Hizbullah to push for Lebanon to cancel its treaty of cooperation with the tribunal and funding of about half of its expenses. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who defected from 14 March and backed Miqati, said this week that justice could be "postponed" in the name of stability, in what was likely to presage the government's stance. "It will be a big mistake if we cut ties with the tribunal, halt funding the body and withdraw Lebanese judges. The tribunal is functioning with or without us," Jumblatt said in a televised interview. Many now believe the government will steer a middle course -- maintain official cooperation with the court knowing that it will be near impossible to track down suspects linked to Hizbullah, much less arrest them. If Lebanon fails to arrest the suspects within 30 working days of the indictment, the warrants will be made public, and in absentia proceedings can be launched. The movement of 14 March has said it will now campaign to bring down the government but Beirut-based independent analyst George Alam said the movement currently had few cards. "If they decide to take this to the streets that could lead to strife, maybe even civil war, and I don't think that's likely," he said. "For one thing, no major international side with influence in Lebanon benefits from strife -- whether the United States, Saudi Arabia or Iran." Some analysts expect a campaign of street demonstrations by the opposition, which must stay on the offensive to maintain the interest of its supporters and show that it has not deserted them in their hour of need. Many Sunnis in Lebanon in particular feel aggrieved by the accusation against Hizbullah members over the death of Al-Hariri, a leading figure in their community. They see Hizbullah as at the very least obstructing the court they have ardently supported. Although the government has, against expectations, announced it will cooperate with the arrest warrants, or at least stand aside and allow the judiciary to do its work, no one expects the four men to be found. Hizbullah condemns the court as a politicised tool of Israel and the United States, and Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has released two batches of what he said was evidence of the court's politicisation and corruption, and of Israeli involvement in the assassination. Despite the anger, 14 March has little ability at the moment to drag Hizbullah on to the streets, Alam said. "If it managed to, there would be another takeover like in May 2008, but Hizbullah will avoid being provoked." Hizbullah and allied Amal Shia gunmen took over western Beirut in May 2008 in response to a government clampdown on its guerrilla communications networks, which it took as a declaration of war. So far, an intensive Hizbullah media campaign to discredit the tribunal and prepare the Lebanese public for the indictments seems to have succeeded in absorbing the shock. Despite the fears of strife, Lebanon has remained calm since they were issued. All eyes remain on the unrest in neighbouring Syria, Alam said. The two countries' histories are intertwined, and their sectarian mosaic is to some extent similar. "If Al-Assad falls, all options are open in Lebanon," he said. "If Syria descends into civil war, it would be nearly impossible for Lebanon to avoid being drawn in, with the similarities between the two countries." Lebanon's Christians, at the leadership level more than on the street, also fear that any conflict over the border would harm the Christian community, with the Iraqi exodus of the Christian minority fresh in their minds. Lebanon's patriarch Beshara Al-Rahi was treading carefully, Alam said, and starting to play a regional role supporting stability in Syria, calling for reform rather than regime change. Events in the region are spiralling rapidly. "I sense Lebanon will stay calm for a while, but that prediction could be shaken at any moment. It's all attached to what happens in Syria and relations with Israel," Alam said. "Lebanon is a spiderweb attached to various regional situations."
