The US administration faces a dilemma in dealing with developments and internal changes in the Middle East, writes Ezzat Ibrahim from Washington The US today faces uncertainty regarding its policies in the Middle East, even as developments taking place in a major ally, Egypt, might turn out to lead to significant departures from the past. At the same time, it seems that the US Congress is forcing an embarrassing change of direction on US President Barack Obama by opposing participation in military operations to oust Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. A clash between the White House and the Republican majority in the House of Representatives over the issue may be inevitable, and similar tensions can be found in the case of other countries, notably Egypt. Over recent weeks, the US administration has tried out many directions, stopping short of taking up an explicit position regarding its vision of the future of Egypt, in particular the prospect of opening a dialogue with Islamist political forces. The US administration has also steered away from pushing for a comprehensive plan for the stalled Palestinian-Israeli peace process. At the heart of such shifts has been the linkage between protesters' anger with their governments and the continued suffering of the Palestinian people under Israeli occupation, though the US has not been able to recognise this. Meanwhile, the administration is trying to get a sense of the new overall picture of the Arab region, but the absence of policy clarity leaves important questions on future US strategy unanswered. Statements by senior officials or members of Congress who have visited Egypt over recent days confirmed reports about the possibility of US involvement in dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood. According to information obtained by Al-Ahram Weekly, think tanks specialising in Middle East affairs and the Islamist movements are testing the waters about when Washington could begin dialogue with the most influential Islamist movement in the country. One US scholar explained that in the debate "there are two schools of thought regarding opening dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood. Some officials and experts have suggested opening modest talks with the Brotherhood in order to clarify certain positions in case the group creates a critical parliamentary bloc with other Islamist parties in the next elections." "On the other hand, the conservative school of thought, supported by pro-Israeli pundits, would prefer the US to stay away from giving such groups a platform before acknowledging the right of Israel to exist and clearly renouncing the use of violence." Recent public opinion surveys conducted by US institutions in Egypt might embolden the conservative side, with a majority of those polled saying that they have not decided who they will vote for in the next elections. The only explicit advance in American and Western policy towards the Arab Spring came last week when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Cairo and other countries about drifting away from building democratic and tolerant societies. She used the case of the trial of former president Hosni Mubarak to indicate the Western criteria of reform. "We want to see appropriate due process and procedures followed in anyone's trial, and particularly in such a highly charged trial as that will certainly be," she said. "We're disturbed by the reports of efforts to crack down on journalists and bloggers and judges and others, which we don't think is in keeping with the direction that the Egyptian people were heading in when they started out in Tahrir Square," Clinton added. Clinton explained the US administration's position in a speech accepting the George C Marshall Foundation Award last week in Washington. "An extraordinary entrepreneurial spirit is waiting to be tapped in countries like Egypt and Tunisia," she said. "Their people have the talent and the drive to build resilient economies and enduring democracies. If we support their efforts, we can help them unlock the region's potential, rebuild their dignity, and realise their hopes. And I argue very strongly that by doing so we will advance our own security." The warnings in the speech against "efforts to crack down on journalists and bloggers and others" are standard US State Department talking points, reflecting long-standing US policy, Jon Alterman, Middle East Programme director at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, said. "The Tahrir Square mention, it seems to me, is what is notable. It reflects the admiration and enthusiasm many Americans felt for the peaceful protests in Tahrir, and the hope of many that it would herald the transition to a vibrant democracy in Egypt and throughout the Arab world." The international community has shown similar concerns. "At this critical period of transition, the military should make a clear break with the repressive policies of the past, and this means ending military trials, repealing the emergency law, and laws that restrict freedoms," said Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, a US human rights organisation. "Egypt has started to try some former officials, but unbroken impunity for the systematic torture of Egyptians over the past decades will only invite reoccurrence of abuse," the organisation said on Tuesday. Some weeks ago, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote in a letter to the G8 meeting of the world's leading industrialised countries that rich countries "share a compelling interest in seeing the transitions in Egypt and Tunisia succeed and become models for the region," warning against any backtracking in the transition process. According to a source in the US State Department, "the Obama administration is under pressure from different groups, budget-austerity wonks, the Israel lobby on both sides of the aisle and national security proponents, to watch carefully the situation in Egypt up to the general elections in September." The Muslim Brotherhood and the role of the Egyptian army are haunting discussion in Washington. While American officials are worried about the commitment of the ruling Higher Council of the Armed Forces (HCAF) to the democratic process, they also worry that the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood as a key player is halting US attempts at getting differences with the military out into the open, preferring to continue discussion with the HCAF than to deal with the Brotherhood. State Department Policy Planning Director Jake Sullivan has made it clear that shaping the political changes in the Arab world is at the top of US foreign policy priorities. "Egypt is particularly consequential: one in four Arabs is Egyptian, and getting it right there means the orderly development of a durable democratic system that is accountable and responsive and safeguards pluralistic values, including the rights of women and religious minorities. Also, economic modernisation is a centrepiece of our strategy on Egypt and Tunisia." Between a short-term management process and bewilderment as to how to handle longer- term strategic imperatives, the US administration is still searching for a comprehensive vision that will help it to retain its regional interests and safeguard the security of its traditional allies.
