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War clouds in Yemen
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 26 - 05 - 2011

The "peaceful" revolution has turned to a small war in Yemen. Now, it might turn into an all-out civil war overnight, predicts Nasser Arrabyee
It started from the palace of the opposition tribal leader Hamid Al-Ahmar and his nine brothers in Al-Hasaba area in the Yemeni capital Sanaa one day after President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to sign a US-backed and Saudi-led GCC deal for peaceful transfer of power.
Heavy and medium-sized weapons were used by the tribesmen of Al-Ahmar, who heads Yemen's most influential tribe Hashed, to storm and occupy all the government institutions around the palace such as the Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Trade, the headquarters of the ruling party, and the state-run news agency Saba.
Saba is barely functioning after the upper three stories of the six-storey building were shelled Monday from the barricades and trenches around Al-Ahmar's Palace which is less than 500 metres away. Remarkably, only one journalist was injured out of the 100 who were blockaded for more than eight hours in the basement of the building. Al-Ahmar accused Saleh's forces of turning all these official buildings into military barracks to target them in their palace.
The beginning of this small but very dangerous war was early Monday morning, when Saleh's security forces clashed with Al-Ahmar militants who besieged Al-Ramah public school close to the palace occupied by security forces. Al-Ahmar said the school was being used as a storehouse for weapons by Saleh supporters.
The war intensified all day Tuesday in the area of Al-Hasab around Al-Ahmar Palace where hundreds of tribal leaders came to mediate between Hamid Al-Ahmar and President Saleh. At least three tribesmen were killed at the outer gate of the palace by a missile before mediators left empty-handed early afternoon Tuesday. The chairman of intelligence, Ghalib Al-Kamish, was among the mediators who failed to contain the deteriorating situation.
The leader of Yemen's second most influential tribe Bakil, Sheikh Naji Al-Shayif, started a second mediation very late Tuesday in a bid to prevent an all-out war.
Ex-general Ali Mohsen has not interfered yet, but he is expected to protect the re-enforcement tribesmen coming from Khamer, the stronghold of Al-Ahmar's tribes in Amran province north of the capital Sanaa, in the event that Saleh's republican guards try to prevent them from entering Sanaa.
These developments came after President Saleh refused Sunday at the last minute to sign the power transfer deal after five officials from his party and five from opposition parties signed it but in different places.
Thousands of Saleh supporters took to the streets of the capital Sanaa on Sunday and started to block roads in support of their president. They surrounded the Emirates embassy in Sanaa to prevent mediation members, including Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) chief Abdel-Latif Al-Zayani, and ambassadors from the Gulf, the US, UK, and EU, who were supposed to go to the presidential palace to pressure Saleh to sign.
They were taken by military helicopter to the presidential office where five officials from Saleh's party signed but not Saleh. The opposition had signed the deal a day earlier.
Saleh wanted the opposition leaders to come to him. "How can we work with them for one month? Over the phone? Who will they take their oath from," Saleh wondered. "If they want a civil war, we will confront them with all means and they will be held responsible for the bloodshed," he added.
After GCC chief Al-Zayani returned to the Saudi capital, the GCC ministers, who were in an urgent meeting on Yemen, called on the conflicting parties to be more patient to avoid a war.
Saudi Arabia, who leads the mediation urged Saleh to sign as soon as possible and said Al-Zayani would come back to Sanaa to complete his work. They hope Saleh will finally sign this Sunday if the current small war is to be contained.
The US and EU urged Saleh to fulfil his promise and sign, implementing the deal and handing over power. After what happened Sunday, the Americans and Europeans hinted at other options including sanctions if Saleh did not hand over power peacefully.
A Yemeni journalist was wounded by Al-Ahmar's forces though spokesman Abdel-Kawee Al-Kaisi said they were only defending themselves when Saleh's army and security forces tried to storm Al-Ahmar's palace in Al-Hasaba. "What happened today, came after a long series of provocative acts by the Saleh's baltega (thugs)."
Billionaire Hamid Al-Ahmar, who is accused of orchestrating and funding the four-month anti-Saleh protests, has been grooming himself for the presidency since 2006 when he publicly called for a revolution against President Saleh after his candidate Faisal bin Shamlan lost the disputed elections to Saleh.
Some of the anti-Saleh protesters dismiss the rising tensions as a conspiracy by Saleh and his supporters to divert attention from the popular uprising. "What's happening is just a play by Saleh to portray the conflict as a conflict between himself and Al-Ahmar's family and not between him and the whole people," said Ameen Arrabyee, one of the leading protesters in sit-in square at University of Sanaa.


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