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Where's the exit?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 03 - 2011

Islamists and tribesmen are happy with the army dissent, while young protesters fear their revolution might be stolen, says Nasser Arrabyee
The Yemen crisis appears to be coming to an end, after the 33-year rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh and the drawn-out popular revolution. This week, protesters gained unprecedented support from powerful army generals and influential tribal leaders.
But a safe and honourable exit for Saleh, and a peaceful and smooth transfer of power to a national council to run the country until elections are held, are still a long way off.
The crowds have continued to swell and remain united around the demand that "Saleh must go now." However, what's going to happen next, with rival tanks and armoured vehicles in the streets of the capital and around the presidential palace, is not clear.
The protesters are determined to march to the presidential place next Friday, "the Friday of Creeping". Mohamed Qahtan, spokesman of the Islamist-led opposition coalition which includes the Islamists, socialist, and Nasserites, said "We would creep to the presidential palace, with open chests, and you (Saleh) can kill whoever you like." Qahtan, a moderate Islamist leader, was commenting on a Saudi-led mediation proposal that suggests President Saleh should step down at the end of this year when presidential elections must be held without him participating. "The young people in the street cannot wait minutes let alone days," Qahtan said.
Saleh, in a meeting with the remaining military commanders on Tuesday, warned of civil war after General Ali Muhsen, the second most powerful military commander after Saleh himself, declared his support for the revolution on Monday. Many military commanders, and tribal leaders declared their support on the same day. Muhsen is very influential in the military and across Yemen, not only in his tribe Hashed, the same tribe as the president, and the most power tribe in Yemen.
The top leader of Hashed, Sadeq Al-Ahmar, declared his support for the revolution after Muhsen. Al-Ahmar was the last to declare his support for the popular revolution of the 10 sons of the departed Abdullah Al-Ahmar, who always helping President Saleh in similar situations, but not in a revolution. Trying to copy his father in helping Saleh, Sadeq said, "I'm ready to mediate between Saleh and the opposition to a find a safe and honourable exit for President Saleh."
His brother Hamid Al-Ahmar, the billionaire Islamist leader who has been grooming himself for the presidency after Saleh, said, "Saleh must surrender to justice" after the bloody Friday 18 March, when 52 protesters were killed by armed men believed to be loyal to Saleh.
The protesters also gained the support of the most famous religious leader, Abdel-Majid Al-Zandani, who left the capital Sanaa earlier this month to go to his tribe Arhab as his ally Saleh's power ebbs. Saleh has defended him from US extradition as a global terrorist.
The joy of the Islamists and tribesmen meant worries for a lot of young people who dream of a secular state. "Ali Muhsen is the general who ignited the war of 1994, and he is the main partner of Abdel-Majid Al-Zandani who established Al-Qaeda in Yemen," Muhsen Aydh, one of the young protesters, said. "The tank of Ali Muhsen, the beard of Al-Zandani, and the Jambya (traditional dagger) of Al-Ahmar, are not at all a revolution but only competition for the protection of the Saudi royal family. Saleh has succeeded in marketing these three men, with their blood-stained hands, as the leaders of Yemen's revolution," Aydh added.
A young woman protester, Iman asked Al-Ahram Weekly, "Please tell me where can I find Afghan-style Abaya (clothes covering all the body) so that I can go out from now on?". Her friend Reem answered, "Do not worry, they will distribute them to our men, and barbers' shops will be closed."
Fouad Al-Salahi, a sociology professor at Sanaa University, said, "There must have been an agreement between leaders of the Islamist party Islah, the Hashid tribe and Saudi officials. This is a tragedy and it's worse than killing the protesters. Even the resignations were only a play to pave the way for that deal."
Arwa Othman, a writer and feminist activist, said, " We must continue the sit-in until the regime and all its members and aides collapse even if they were prophets."
Protester Mohammed Al-Makaleh, a writer and socialist leader, said, "Before the opposition coalition was proclaimed more than six years ago, the Islamist party Islah was in an alliance with the same military and tribal leaders. They took a vacation for six years, and now the old allies are coming back for the harvest," he said in a clear reference to the return of Ali Muhsen, Al-Ahmar and Al-Zandani. The Islamists and Socialists and Nasserites proclaimed their coalition about six years ago amid ideological objections from these tribal and military leaders.
Protester Khaled Said said, "I left the sit-in and returned home when I saw protesters welcome the military and tribal leaders." Fekri Qassem, editor-in-chief of Hadith Al-Madina independent weekly, said, "All we need now is Muammar Gaddafi to join the revolution."
The declared support of the second most powerful military commander was likely coordinated to find a peaceful way to transfer power and secure an for Saleh. And it does not necessarily mean confrontations between the republican guards and armoured forces.
The Yemeni Supreme Council of Defence said Monday it is against any coup or overthrow of the constitutional legitimacy represented by President Saleh. Foreign Minister Abu Bakr Al-Querbi flew late Monday to the Saudi king in Riyadh where Saudi-led regional mediation is going on. Chaired by Saleh, the council said it would be in a permanent meeting to follow up the military and security developments after important military commanders declared their support for the popular revolution.
Earlier in the day, the president addressed a gathering of tribesmen from Safan and Mankha west of the capital by saying, "We are as steadfast as the mountains of Nukum and Ayban and the majority of the people are for security and stability." Nukum and Ayban are the two mountains around the capital Sanaa.
Troops with tanks and armoured vehicles from the republican guards led by President Saleh's son, Ahmed, were deployed late Monday, after the troops led by General Ali Muhsen were deployed around the anti-Saleh protesters earlier Monday, replacing the central security forces of General Yehia Mohamed Abdullah Saleh, President's Saleh's nephew.
"On my behalf and on behalf of my colleagues in the armed forces, we are declaring our peaceful support for the peaceful revolution of the young people and their demands, and we will perform our duties fully in maintaining the security and stability in the capital and wherever our military units are, beside our brothers from the security forces," said Muhsen.
General Muhsen is also a relative of the president Saleh -- a cousin, not a half-brother, as misreported by Western media. He has been the main pillar of Saleh's rule since Saleh took power in 1978, has a good reputation and good relations with most of Yemen's tribal and religious leaders, and is religious himself.
His support of the popular revolution today does not necessarily mean he has become an enemy of his longstanding commander and relative, nor does it mean armed confrontation between him and the republican guards of Saleh's son Ahmed. At the same time, it does not mean a conspiracy between the two most powerful men after Saleh against the protesters, but it does indicate coordination for the peaceful transfer of power and the secure exist of Saleh.


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