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No Yemeni crystal ball
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 03 - 02 - 2011

A maze of conflicting tribal allegiances, Saudi money trails and desperate jockeying by the president makes for a confusing, frightening situation in Yemen, says Nasser Arrabyee
Yemen's third "Day of Rage" has passed peacefully. No major violence was recorded in the capital Sanaa, Taiz and other provinces where tens of thousands of pro- and anti-government protesters took to the streets on Tuesday.
The opposition demonstrations near the University of Sanaa demanded the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh and the ruling party, while in the main square of the capital, Tahrir Square, protesters demanded dialogue and rejected chaos.
President Saleh was listening to demands of thousands of students and professors inside Sanaa University, while protesters were chanting slogans against him outside the university on Tuesday.
The opposition previously called for the day of rage to condemn the violence in the southern city of Aden where about 10 demonstrators were killed and many others injured over the last week.
President Saleh formed a committee to investigate the Aden violence. Demonstrations in Aden and the south in general are different because of the demands by the separatist southern movement.
On the eve of this day of rage, the spokesman of the Yemen opposition coalition refused an offer by President Saleh to form a unity government for monitoring parliamentary elections to be followed by presidential elections. Spokesman Mohamed Al-Kubati, said, "Saleh has only two options: either to be a former president, or a deposed president."
Earlier on Monday, the most influential cleric in the largest opposition party Islah, Abdel-Maguid Al-Zandani, presented President Saleh, in the name of Yemen's clerics , a seven-point initiative including formation of a unity government. Saleh agreed with it, though adding an eighth point which calls for an end to protests.
Al-Zandani and almost all Yemeni clerics from all provinces held a meeting with President Saleh in his $80 million Al-Saleh Mosque near the Presidential Palace to find a solution for rescuing their country from collapsing into chaos.
"Say the truth, say the truth, you will be responsible before Allah Almighty for what might happen, those [opposition] are riding the wave of foolishness," Saleh told the clerics.
"I know, and almost all of you in this room know, who pays for those demonstrations and why and how you should say the truth," said Saleh in obvious reference to the billionaire Hamid Al-Ahmar, who is widely believed to be supporting the anti-Saleh protesters while grooming himself for presidency.
"We call for a unity government for monitoring the parliamentary elections, and then the presidential elections, and he who avoids the dialogue, hides evil against the nation."
President Saleh has heard the opposition's reply to his initiative of 2 February in which he said he would not stand for office when his current term ends in 2013, and that his son would not succeed him: "The time for dialogue is over, now the word is from the street."
"I'm ready to leave power but not through chaos. I'm fed up now after 32 years, but the question is how to go peacefully, and you scholars, as heirs of the prophets, should say how."
In an attempt to gain their support, President Saleh held dozens of meetings on a daily basis with tribal leaders from the most powerful tribes including his tribe the Hashed over the last few weeks, before he met the clerics on Monday. The religious leaders and tribal leaders are the most effective players in such a conservative country like Yemen.
However, detractors of Saleh are also trying to gain the support of the armed tribesmen. Sons of the deceased Abdullah Al-Ahmar, who was Yemen's most influential tribal leader, and the second man after Saleh before he died two years ago, are viewed as the main detractors of Saleh, and not the top leaders of the opposition parties.
The late Abdullah Al-Ahmar was the head of the most influential Hashed tribe, and was also the top leader of Islah. But he publicly voted for President Saleh in the 2006 presidential elections not his party's candidate Faisal bin Shamlan. Four of his sons at least are in Saleh's ruling party.
On Saturday, his son Hussein said he would join the young people in the streets who demand the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. "I'm announcing my resignation from the ruling party, the party of corruption, and I will join the revolution of the young people until this regime is toppled," Hussein Al-Ahmar, a former close friend of President Saleh, addressed tens of thousands of tribesmen in Amran city, the stronghold of Hashed tribe.
Hussein has been in an on-and-off word war with President Saleh since he lost his position in internal elections of the ruling party more than three years ago.
Hussein Al-Ahmar is the brother of the historic head of the Hashed, and was speaking at the rally in the name of the Hashed and Bakil tribes, the two most influential tribes in Yemen. Earlier this month, Hussein said he would send his armed tribesmen to Sanaa to protect the anti-Saleh demonstrators.
However, tribal leaders from the two tribes such as Hamoud Atef, Abdu Rabu Rajeh and Mohamed Naji Al-Shayef said in statements that Hussein Al-Ahmar was "only representing himself".
Al-Ahmar's rally of tens of thousands of tribesmen from Hashed and Bakil, who were chanting slogans against President Saleh, came only two days after a rally of tens of thousands of tribesmen from the same two tribes who were chanting slogans to support Saleh in the neighbouring province of Hajja.
Many tribal leaders who attended both rallies rejected Hussein calling for the ouster of President Saleh in the rally. "We reject his implicit call for violence, we are against violence, and we told him this after his speech and he told us, "I was just excited in front of the masses,'" said Sheikh Abdullah Al-Jamili, who attended Hussein's rally from Bakil tribe.
Tribesmen say that Hussein receives about 5 million Saudi rials every month from Saudi Arabia as part of a strategy to buy his father's loyalty as a key tribal ally. The tribesmen receive money from Saudi Arabia and from President Saleh in what some observers call "Money season for tribesmen".
"Yes, tribesmen take money from both sides, but they know very well Yemen's interest, and we would only side with Yemen," Sheikh Al-Jamili said.
The whole Yemen is divided into three main tribal confederations: Hashed, Bakil, and Madhaj.
Hashed, the most influential, was always the ruling tribe historically, though the smallest in terms of population. Bakil is the second most influential with more members than Hashed. Madhaj is the least influential and least important, though the largest in terms of population.
The official head of Hashed is Sadeq Abdullah Al-Ahmar, brother of Hussein. Sadeq is trying to copy his dead father who used to play a balancing role between President Saleh and his detractors.
"I'm the brother of all," Sadeq said last Monday in his father's weekly forum, when he was asked who he supports, President Saleh or the opposition.
Al-Ahmar's sons try to unite as a family, regardless of their parties, against their father's ally, President Saleh.
Himyar Al-Ahmar, brother of Hussein, who is the deputy speaker of Parliament, and member of the ruling part, said earlier this week, he thwarted an intelligence plan to assassinate opposition figures including his brother Hamid Al-Ahmar, the most influential detractor of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.


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