From Cocody to custody, what a comedown for Laurent Gbagbo or is it comeuppance, marvels Gamal Nkrumah With a curious concoction of Western-style democracy, free-market capitalism and neo- colonialism looming, it is an uncomfortable time to be a well-known African despot in distress. The opprobrious image of the portly incumbent Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo sporting his underwear and being manhandled by what appeared to be French troops from the Gendarmerie barracks next door was something of an eye-opener. Gbagbo was elected to a five-year presidential term in 2002; however, he decided to hang on to power on the pretext of the Ivorian civil war which he claimed was being instigated by outsiders and a foreign agenda. The French troops stationed in Ivory Coast -- 1,700 of them -- intervened militarily not to secure a quick-fix solution, but to advance French interests. Gbagbo had France in mind together with half a dozen predominantly Muslim West African nations to the north of Ivory Coast when he spoke of "foreign interference" in the internal affairs of his country. He decided that he had to knock down the network of extensive French commercial interests in Francophone West Africa, and especially the region's economic powerhouse -- his native Ivory Coast. He also espoused a venomously xenophobic policy aimed at ridding his country of Muslim immigrants from the Sahelian nations to the north of Ivory Coast. Gbagbo's logic did not excuse the mass murder of innocent civilians that his militiamen executed. Matters came to a head when he finally called the election and then lost it last year to his rival and presidential claimant Al-Hassan Ouattara, a suave and sophisticated Muslim and former IMF deputy head. Gbagbo then feigned indolence and adamantly refused to relinquish the presidency to a man he considered a "foreigner". Gbagbo galvanised the support of many southerners -- Christians and animists. Gbagbo's policy slowly transpired into lethargy and languorousness. He cultivated cosy contacts with oil-rich Angola and other southern African nations as a counterbalance to French influence. Angola and other southern African states supported Gbagbo. Angola provided financial assistance and military backing to Gbagbo. He assumed that he would rule the roost for eternity. Unfortunately for Gbagbo, he discovered that he was a mere mortal, after all. Troops loyal to Gbagbo attacked Ouattara in his hideout hotel in Abidjan, the country's commercial capital. This turned out to be the French cue to crush Gbagbo and put an end to his insolence. Rocket-propelled grenades did the trick. French military intervention was crucial in instigating Gbagbo's demise. The gendarmes mounted a massive attack by helicopter gunships, and unidentified troops descended into Gbagbo's supposedly impregnable bunker. The French and international media was already filling the charge sheet with accusatory stories about the rotund Gbagbo's preoccupation -- in his undergarments -- with the riches that might have resulted from another presidential term, the prerogative of purveyors of imported French champagne. Evidently Gbagbo was having some difficulty adjusting to his new guise as prisoner of war. With his fortunes forgone, disrobed and dejected, Gbagbo was told in no uncertain terms by the triumphant Ouattara that he intends to begin legal procedures against Gbagbo, his wife and close associates. "The fighting is over," Ouattara declared. Soon after the president-elect's announcement cocoa prices soared on the international market. Ivory Coast is the world's largest producer and exporter of cocoa. Yet, for an African despot who has just been deprived of his presidency, Gbagbo seems rather chipper -- at least for the time being. Worse, gunfire and explosions rocked Abidjan long after Gbagbo's unceremonious exit was broadcast. Militias loyal to Gbagbo have vowed to continue to fight. Even more ominous is the absolute lack of law and order as policemen disappeared, leaving the streets of Abidjan eerily quiet. Whether the French can quell the unrest and stop reprisals by Gbagbo militiamen is open to question. "I have asked that European Union sanctions on the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro and certain public utilities be lifted," Ouattara announced in Abidjan. France is the favourite to win the lions' share in the new rejuvenated Ivorian economy. Gbagbo all along claimed that his country faced a putsch contrived by provocateurs from neighbouring countries with the backing of France. Neocolonialism flourishes on corrupt ruling cliques squabbling over the spoils of office. The French understand that their escapades and misadventures will eventually seal the fate of Ivory Coast turning it officially into yet another ill-run African country that serves their interests perfectly. The irony is that Gbagbo, for all his frivolity and foolishness, stood in their way. Ouattara is no angel either. Dominique Ouattara, the Tunisian-Israeli wife of the Ivorian president-elect also happens to be a French national. Reputed to be a billionaire of considerable standing in Ivory Coast as a benefactor and patron of the poor, Ouattara will no doubt find his better half advantageous at this particular stage in his political career. She is something of a prop for the president, rather than a handicap or a liability especially as far as his relations with France and the West are concerned. Islamists in West Africa will no doubt be bitterly disappointed by his performance in the months to come. This, nonetheless, promises more mayhem. Now the balance has tipped. France is expected to be the main beneficiary, and the emerging economies of China and Brazil might lose some lucrative contracts initially, but in the long run they are bound to benefit from the Ivorian bonanza. That marks a breakthrough. The new concept is to look at the end result. Yet for all that, something has changed in Ivory Coast. Robbed of its logistical base in Abidjan, it is hard not to see Gbagbo's henchmen fall into long-term decline. Some of this is bad luck. Rigged elections are a favourite instrument of African tyrants. But Gbagbo was not so lucky. It is hard to guess which discomfited Gbagbo more about being caught in a bunker in his residence in the plush Abidjan suburb of Cocody -- his informal attire, or lack of it, or the fact that he was forcibly silenced by his captors. Indeed, his remarks on his capture were conspicuously sparse. For the excesses of his rule to shrink, solitary confinement and a Spartan prison lifestyle could be the best prescription for Gbagbo and Ivory Coast. At the moment there is a mania about reading about other people's tragedies and no doubt Gbagbo will be scrawling his memoirs. Unfinished Ivorian business threatens to destabilise the entire West African region. Yet the very sight of displaced and desperate civilians clamouring for food hint at a humanitarian crisis in the making. Hunger and starvation are now adding daily to the death toll in Ivory Coast's civil war. Cholera and malaria continue to kill, and especially now that foreign medical staff has fled the war-torn country. Gbagbo might have gone, but his henchmen and the supporters of Ouattara are squaring up for more bloodletting. "No French soldier entered the presidential residence," French Defence Minister Gérard Longuet declared unequivocally in an interview on French radio. "There was not a single French soldier in the residence," Frédéric Daguillon, the French military spokesman in Abidjan concurred. Everyone in Ivory Coast takes such French mumbo-jumbo with a pinch of salt. A strange atmosphere has enveloped Abidjan, a city of five million residents -- most of them eke out a meagre living on the edge of the city as impoverished slum-dwellers. Unemployment is soaring to unprecedented levels engendering a new spate of social and political unrest. Down but not out, the Ivorian masses are struggling for survival. Gbagbo's notions of ethnic cleansing may appeal to the jobless and they may vent their frustration on the West African immigrant workers in Ivory Coast. The very notion of a West African "foreigner" in Ivory Coast is preposterous. Yet when the chips are down, fascism emerges as an extremely attractive ideology. It is a tricky term in the context of contemporary Ivory Coast. And it was not entirely without success that Gbagbo deployed xenophobia to his own political gain. This sort of partisan rhetoric is tribalistic and quite frankly tedious. Is there any chance that the trend of violence in Ivory Coast can be reversed? The French affect to have all the answers. What is certain is that Ivorian domestic politics cannot be shaped by Paris and executed by the Champs Elysées alone. The cooperation and political collaboration of West African neighbours is key for a prosperous Ivory Coast. But will Paris permit such an indulgence? That may be a big if. France is in no mood to acknowledge that it has slid to the mortifying status of a third rate power in spite of the fact that it is still presumably a responsible member of the United Nations Security Council. And, so off they go across the Mediterranean to exterminate their African enemies. Such intervention was neither warranted nor sustainable. Africans can take care of their own problems, thank you very much.
