Gbagbo has so far defied international pressure to resign, but he now shows tentative signs of relenting, writes Gamal Nkrumah Heading for the exit is a pretty strong message of humility and submission. Strong, but not always enlightening, especially when it concerns a country -- Ivory Coast -- that is desperately struggling to stay afloat. This week a delegation of African statesmen headed for Ivory Coast's economic capital Abidjan for talks with the incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo who refuses to relinquish power after losing last month's presidential polls to former International Monetary Bank (IMF) deputy director Al-Hassan Ouattara. Gbagbo may strive to portray himself as the indisputable winner of Ivory Coast's political intrigue. So far, however, he has won nothing more than a Pyrrhic victory over his bitter antagonist Ouattara. Ivory Coast could do without an impaired political decision-making process. The unwinnable war in Ivory Coast is now entering a decisive phase where outside forces are increasingly determining the pace of action. But Ivorians do not take kindly to the fact that it is the ex-colonial masters who are spearheading the fight to dislodge Gbagbo. It has taken time and bitter experience for Ivory Coast to free itself of French economic, cultural and political stranglehold. French championship of any Ivorian government could sink it. It is a measure of how troubled Ivory Coast's politics has become, that Gbagbo is apparently unperturbed by the chorus of international criticism levelled against him. Gbagbo's intransigence reveals the sharpening divide between the forces of the predominantly Muslim north and the mainly animist and Christian south of the resource- rich country that is tearing Ivory Coast apart. Rather than clamping down on tribalism, Gbagbo is fanning the flames of xenophobia and ethnic conflict as a strategic hedge against Ouattara. This is just not working. Ivory Coast's Western backers have focussed unduly on the ousting of Gbagbo. At least as much attention must be paid to buttressing the fragile democracy and economic development of this tottering West African nation. The vote that declared Ouattara the winner and relegated Gbagbo to the political doldrums is the culmination of a peace accord signed in March 2007 that ended several years of Ivory Coast's civil war that pitted northerners against southerners. The Ivorian civil war erupted when Gbagbo was on an official visit to Italy. In haste, he cut short his trip when an armed uprising ousted his democratically elected government and Gbagbo ominously initiated a purge of the Ivorian army targeting northerners and Muslims. The majority of the Muslim rank and file deserted to form the New Forces armed opposition group. Moreover, Gbagbo ordered his troops to bombard the New Forces stronghold of Bouake, Ivory Coast's second largest city, killing nine French peacekeeping soldiers in the process. It was just the latest tragic instalment in a deadly game of Russian roulette between France and the richest of its former African colonies. Paris insists that there is nothing insidious about its antagonism towards Gbagbo. This particular incident marked a watershed in Franco- Ivorian relations with France instigating retaliatory air strikes that destroyed the bulk of the Ivorian military aircraft and strengthened the hand of the New Forces against Ivorian troops loyal to Gbagbo. Gendarmes in Ivory Coast's economic capital Abidjan came under fierce attack by Gbagbo henchmen. The port city is a major Gbagbo bastion and rioters loyal to Gbagbo attacked French troops. They also deliberately destroyed French commercial and industrial interests in Abidjan claiming that France, the former colonial power in Ivory Coast, favoured Ouattara and the northerners and was indulging in neocolonialist escapades in Ivory Coast. Overnight Gbagbo emerged as a nationalist icon, a symbol of resistance, struggling against alien imperialism. In March 2007, however, Gbagbo reluctantly agreed to accommodate New Forces leader Guillaume Soro as prime minister. France attempted to mend fences with the Gbagbo clique, but relations between France and its former colony plummeted recently with French President Nicolas Sarkozy ostensibly sending instructions to the head of the Ivorian Electoral Commission to declare Ouattara the winner of the presidential poll. The French move incensed Gbagbo supporters and the head of the Ivorian Popular Front Pascal Affi N'Guessan dismissed French interference in his country's domestic affairs as "intolerable" and "imperialist". "What is non- negotiable is the victory of Laurent Gbagbo, officially elected and proclaimed president who governs the country," N'Guessan stressed. In the aftermath of more recent troubles, Soro promptly resigned his post and joined forces with Ouattara. Other northerners likewise jumped on the Ouattara bandwagon. Ouattara appointed Yousoufou Bamba, a northern Muslim, as Ivory Coast's new ambassador to the United Nations. Gbagbo is notorious as a great survivor who clings tenaciously to power. Amid violence on Abidjan's streets and fisticuffs in its corridors of power, Ouattara clung on to the presidency in spite of French and United States disapproval. Politically, this should help outflank Gbagbo and to split the southern vote. Ironically, however, French political interference in Ivorian domestic politics only served to galvanise support for Gbagbo. This is a bad result for all concerned. But Gbagbo, too, must do what he can. He expelled ambassadors Marie Isabelle Massip and Nicholas James Westcott of Canada and Britain respectively. The United States froze Gbagbo's assets and those of his henchmen and close associates. Ivory Coast might be West Africa's richest nation per capita, and therefore it is a magnet for labourers from poorer West African neighbouring states. Yet although the Gbagbo government is in the mire, Ouattara and other Gbagbo opponents have little to celebrate. The failure to take advantage of Gbagbo's misfortunes and floundering serves only to highlight the political clout France and other Western powers wield in Ivory Coast 50 years after independence from France. So why did African leaders see cheer in Abidjan? The Ouattara administration needs to see beyond the superficially muscular policies of Gbagbo. And, African dignitaries visiting Abidjan know this all too well. The heads of state of Benin, Cape Verde and Sierra Leone were joined on Monday by charismatic Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga who had earlier vehemently criticised Gbagbo. African Union Commission head Jean Ping, too, flew to Abidjan to help ease tensions. Odinga is scheduled to return to Abidjan today or tomorrow. Does the AU strategy deserve wider application? Yes. The 10,000 strong UN peacekeeping force in Ivory Coast must be bolstered, if anything to bolster support and provide protection for the besieged Ouattara in Abidjan's luxurious Golf Hotel -- a virtual house arrest. Gbagbo urged to UN troops to leave the country, claiming that they were biased in favour of Ouattara. Gbagbo, in power for a decade, has rejected Ouattara's unity offer. Such political wrangling claimed the lives of 220 Ivorians and some 22,000 Ivorians fled the country. A humanitarian crisis is in the making. Such a catastrophe may not be too far away. To the extent that gross domestic product is driven by such absurd dependence on the export of raw materials and primary products is a measure of underdevelopment and not economic welfare. One in three Ivorian youth are unemployed. Ivory Coast is the world's primary producer of cocoa. It is also a major exporter of tropical crops such as coffee, tea, rubber and cotton. Yet it hardly has any manufacturing industry to speak of. Moreover the resource-rich country is in the grip of a financial crisis and is deep in debt. Ivory Coast missed an interest payment of some $30 million on its $2.5 billion eurobond which was due last Friday. Alas, the biggest loser, as often is the case in such scenarios, is the people of the Ivory Coast -- northerners and southerners alike.
