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Only modest results
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 16 - 12 - 2010

Talks between the Syrian and French presidents this week focussed on Lebanon, with Syria asking for French diplomatic support at the UN, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus
As the countdown continues until indictments are issued in the investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad visited France for talks this week with French President Nicolas Sarkozy to discuss the situation in Lebanon.
Ahead of the visit, the Syrian media reported several goals of the talks, including developing bilateral relations between the two countries, ways of preventing the collapse of security and stability in Lebanon, efforts to form a new government in Iraq, and the situation in Palestine and failure of direct negotiations with Israel.
The agenda also included the blocked peace process on the Syrian-Israeli track, the future of the French-inspired Union for the Mediterranean (UM), and Syria's presently frozen partnership with Europe.
In fact, however, talks between the two presidents did not go much beyond the issue of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and the possibility of postponing indictments in the investigation into the assassination of Al-Hariri in 2005.
Iran was not discussed, and neither were Iraq or Palestine. While the UM was briefly reviewed, the talks focussed on issues related to Lebanon.
In discussing the talks, Al-Assad has been cautious in his remarks and has avoided any detailed comment about the situation in Lebanon and the controversy over the STL indictments. Instead, he has emphasised that "it is in no one's interest in Lebanon to start a sectarian conflict."
Contrary to what observers had previously asserted, Al-Assad said that there was no Saudi-Syrian initiative to calm the situation as the time draws near for the STL indictments to be issued.
Instead, "the two countries are trying to facilitate ideas initiated in Lebanon," he said. Al-Assad said that Saudi- French and Syrian-French coordination was ongoing, while at the same time stressing that any resolution would need to be "a Lebanese one, not one from France, Saudi Arabia or Syria."
The fact that there is apparently no Syrian-Saudi proposal to resolve the crisis, but only ideas under discussion, brings Lebanon back to square one, Al-Assad contradicting previous comments from Hizbullah officials that a settlement was imminent.
During his trip to Paris, Al-Assad paid particular attention to the work of the International Tribunal, while at the same time noting that the work of the STL was an internal Lebanese affair in which Syria had no intention of interfering.
Al-Assad's focus in the discussions on Lebanon was apparent when he told French television that he had discussed the role that France could play in the UN Security Council "to limit intervention" in the work of the STL and "prevent it from becoming a political issue."
The two men had discussed what each of them could do to make Lebanese dialogue succeed and end tensions in the country, he said, noting that Damascus would accept the STL indictments only if they are based on "precise evidence".
"Any decision based on suspicion or political reasons will not be taken seriously," Al-Assad said.
One Arab source said that Al-Assad had told Sarkozy during the meetings that if he wanted to help reach a settlement regarding the STL indictments, he should talk to his contacts in Lebanon, among them Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri, in order that they could decide a position before the indictments are made public.
Al-Hariri should take a conciliatory posture ahead of the publication of the indictments, he said.
While Al-Assad's visit was scheduled to last two days, it was decided to extend it to four because France needed time to respond.
Damascus seems to be clear about what it thinks will take place in Lebanon when the indictments are released if the Lebanese do not agree ahead of time to reject the indictments.
Syria is working alongside Hizbullah in order to stymie the work of the International Tribunal and to bring the proceedings back into the Lebanese courts, known as "Lebanonising" the investigation under the auspices of Saudi Arabia and Syria.
At the end of the Syrian visit, the Elysée issued a statement that observers felt was an insufficient basis for any Saudi-Syrian initiative regarding the indictments or for containing any possible backlash after their publication.
The statement, not approved by Syria, said that the French president was "following with concern" the situation in Lebanon because of "tensions regarding the work of the STL."
It reiterated "the importance which France gives to respecting the work of the Tribunal and its independence," and expressed the "hope that the national coalition government in Lebanon would be able to carry out its responsibility in serving Lebanon and all the Lebanese people."
The statement also reiterated French commitment to ensuring security in Lebanon through partnership with the UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon.
Parallel to Al-Assad's Paris trip and focus on the Tribunal was an announcement from STL registrar Herman von Hebel that the prosecution of suspects in the Al-Hariri assassination could begin in September or October 2011. Von Hebel said that STL prosecutor Daniel Bellemare was likely to send a draft of the indictments to the Tribunal "very soon."
Although the French presidential statement did not correspond with what Syria had wanted of Paris, Damascus nevertheless handled the outcome of the talks diplomatically.
Bouthaina Shaaban, political and media adviser to president Al-Assad, said that the Syrian president and Sarkozy were "optimistic" that conditions in Lebanon would improve.
However, such statements could not disguise the fact that the visit was unsatisfactory to Syria. Not only was the Lebanese issue not resolved to its liking, but the French newspaper Le Figaro also published an article coinciding with Al-Assad's visit that quoted international investigators as saying that Syria or Iran had been behind Al-Hariri's assassination, using Hizbullah agents.
In addition to the issue of Lebanon, Al-Assad also discussed economic and cultural cooperation between Syria and France during his time in Paris.
He presented Syria's vision of creating new regional economic cooperation through strategic projects in the fields of oil, gas, electricity and railways. Al-Assad said that it was important that France was a partner in such regional cooperation, though opening the Syrian market to French investment remains in the realm of promises and aspirations at this stage.
The absence of peace in the Middle East, especially between Syria and Israel, was a topic of discussion between the French and the Syrians, the latter praising French efforts to achieve peace in the Middle East and insisting that Europe must continue to play a role in the region.
The visit may appear in some ways disappointing for Syria, but the French, too, did not hit their targets.
No agreement was reached on Lebanon, and Syria insisted on the role of Turkey as a mediator in talks between Syria and Israel, as well as US sponsorship. On economic issues, nothing tangible was reached, though Syria said it hoped France would become a strategic economic partner.
In the end, Al-Assad's Paris trip may have come to little more than each side expressing its desire to continue friendly bilateral relations, without reaching any new understanding on the issue of Lebanon or other topics related to the Middle East and Syria's ties with Mediterranean or European countries.


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