Despite President Hosni Mubarak's exercise in shuttle diplomacy this week, the possibility of a Turkish-Syrian military confrontation has not yet been completely averted. However, Egypt's intensive diplomatic efforts over the last seven days have at least succeeded in putting the brakes on Turkish plans for imminent military action against Syria, plans which could well, if carried out, ignite a conflagration across the entire Middle East region. Egypt remains hopeful, but not certain, that its efforts will be able to contain the crisis. Ankara, for its part, is issuing conflicting signals. Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz told parliament yesterday that Turkey was considering Mubarak's request to seek a diplomatic solution with Syria. "Mr Mubarak asked for a last chance for diplomacy. We said we would study the idea," Yilmaz said. But, if anything, Turkey raised the tone of its threats to Syria to a new level. In practically the same breath, Yilmaz told parliament that Ankara would take "all kinds of dissuasive measures," against Syria, if it continued its support for the "separatist" Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). After talks with Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad on Sunday, and Turkey's Suleiman Demirel on Tuesday, Mubarak made an unscheduled stopover in Damascus Tuesday night on his way home to brief the Syrians in person on his Ankara talks, and thus "to keep up the momentum". He had earlier gained support for his mediation effort from Saudi Arabia's King Fahd whom he visited in Riyadh on Saturday. Sources said that Saudi Arabia had in effect delegated Mubarak to mediate the stand-off, "in order to avoid confusion". Mubarak's aim was to contain Turkish threats of a military strike against Syria and initiate a dialogue between the foreign ministers of the two countries, without too many preconditions being imposed. Both sides promised to "seriously consider" Cairo's initiative for dialogue, but would not commit to immediate negotiations. Damascus should return an answer within two days. Foreign Minister Amr Moussa may be visiting Ankara and Damascus soon for additional talks. Egypt, confident of some flexibility on the Syrian side, is now working to secure an equally positive attitude from Turkey. "I cannot report a breakthrough," said an informed official. "The Middle East does not need more tensions, war or armed conflict. The region suffers from enough already" Mubarak said. The timing of the crisis could not have been worse: Israel continues its policy of procrastination in peace-making with the Palestinians; US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright recently returned to the region, most likely to crank up the pressure on Yasser Arafat to make further concessions to the Israelis; Egypt is facing criticism from certain quarters in the US for allegedly urging Arafat to take a hard-line position; Egypt and Israel are locked in a war of words; talks along the Syrian and Lebanese tracks have virtually given up the ghost; Iran is flexing its military muscles along its border with Afghanistan; Israel threatens to hit what it describes as Iran's "nuclear facilities", and Iraq is embroiled in another row with the United Nations over weapons inspection. "This [Turkish] escalation is incomprehensible," said Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Shara'a, adding that there had been no new developments to warrant it. Asked if the crisis might be an effect of a "honeymoon period" in Turkish-Israeli military cooperation, Shara'a replied: "Yes. I think that there is a lot of truth in that." Egypt was not entirely unsceptical about this but, as a mediator, chose to keep an open mind. Foreign Minister Moussa, asked if Cairo blamed the crisis on the recent warmth of Israeli-Turkish ties, responded: "Let us keep separate files separate. Unless, of course, they are not separate; then we will have a position to take." Almost out of the blue, top Turkish political and military figures last week launched a volley of attacks against Damascus for an alleged 14-years of Syrian support for the PKK which Ankara considers a threat to its territorial unity. Turkey's top brass threatened military strikes against Syrian targets. Despite their anger at the "Satanic" alliance between Turkey and Israel, Syrian diplomats say Damascus does not want to be involved in a military confrontation with Turkey. The diplomats add that Syria is willing to listen to what Ankara has to say about the PKK, provided Ankara is prepared to address Syrian complaints -- echoed by Iraq -- about Turkey's control of the Euphrates water resources. Meanwhile, the Turkish military is sticking to its hawkish demands. It insists that Damascus must hand over PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, despite Syrian denials of any knowledge of his whereabouts. Turkish sources said that "a prerequisite for dialogue with Syria is for Damascus to renounce its support of Kurdish terrorists". The source continued that while the demand for Ocalan was not negotiable, "we will be satisfied if he surfaces in another country other than Syria or Lebanon". Turkish generals also want Syria to renounce all territorial claims concerning the province of Hatay and to retract the accusation that Turkey was not releasing enough water from the Euphrates downstream. If Ankara does opt for military action, its relations with the Arabs, particularly with Egypt, are certain to suffer a major setback. Efforts by Ankara and Tehran to improve their bilateral relations would also be undermined. Moreover, Turkish military action could easily provoke the establishment of a new regional military axis to counter the Ankara-Tel Aviv alliance. And in that case, Arab sources suggest, it would be difficult to avoid the conclusion that Israel had a hand in the making of the crisis. Dina Ezzat and Nevine Khalil in Cairo, Atef Saqr in Damascus, Amberin Zaman in Ankara Related: Turkish war fever Scapegoating Syria
