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All quiet on the Turkish front
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 22 - 10 - 1998


By Atef Saqr and Amberin Zaman
Turkish Defence Minister Ismet Sezgin said on Tuesday that "positive results" had been obtained from two days of closed meetings which brought together senior diplomats and military and security officials from Syria and Turkey.
Officials close to the talks said the Turkish delegation had presented detailed evidence concerning the Kurdistan Workers Party's (PKK) alleged activities in Syria to their Syrian counterparts.
The Syrians, in turn, assured Turkish officials that the PKK was no longer operating in Syrian territory and that its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, had quit the country.
Hours before the talks began on Monday, the PKK leader, codenamed "Apo", faxed a statement to the pro-Kurdish German-based news agency DEM confirming that he was no longer in Syria.
His whereabouts remain a mystery, though he said he was "still in Kurdistan"; this could mean anywhere in Iran, Syria, Iraq, Armenia or Turkey, which collectively are home to some 30 million Kurds.
There is widespread media speculation that the PKK chief may be in Russia. Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz was quoted as saying on Tuesday that Ocalan has been in Russia for the past week. Intelligence sources, however, say he is more likely to be in Libya, which has always been a strong backer of the Kurds. The least likely option is Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq, where Turkish special forces, with the collaboration of Massoud Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party, captured the PKK's second-in-command, Semdin Sakik, earlier this year.
Turkish officials publicly maintain that Turkey is still prepared to resort to military action should Syria fail to come up with conclusive evidence that it has ended its support for the rebels. But privately, many analysts acknowledge the crisis with Syria has effectively been put on hold.
Critics of the government's hawkish stance towards Damascus are already questioning what positive results, if any, Turkey's bout of bellicosity has achieved. "The fact that Apo is no longer in Syria doesn't really change anything," said Hashim Hashimi, an ethnic Kurdish deputy from Turkey's pro-Islamic Virtue Party, Fazilet. "The PKK has support from other countries as well," he said.
If anything, this crisis with Syria has provided the PKK with the kind of publicity it wants. "What is really strange is that Turkey says it's prepared to go to war with a neighbouring country over an issue whose existence it denies; that is, the Kurdish issue," Hashimi said. "Instead of attacking others, we should be attacking the root of the problem, which lies here in Turkey itself," he added.
As for Damascus, succeeding in averting Ankara's call for a war is a victory in itself. The Syrian government has said from the beginning that it would not accept threats, but, at the same time, was willing to solve the differences with Turkey by diplomatic means.
Syrian analysts have constantly linked the latest escalation of tension with Turkey to its strong alliance with Israel. Getting involved in a war with Turkey would only benefit Israel by forcing Syria to divert its attention from its main struggle: liberating the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Therefore, the Syrian officials who took part in the talks did not only hand over a list of the PKK members arrested in Syria, but have reportedly agreed to allow Turkish officials to meet these prisoners.
Informed sources also revealed that Lebanon, in coordination with Syria, allowed a group of Turkish officials to visit the areas in the Beqaa Valley where PKK military bases were allegedly located, to make sure they no longer exist.
Aware that a war with Turkey at this stage would not serve its interests, Syria also agreed to postpone its demands regarding sharing the water of the Euphrates, which is currently controlled by Turkey. Turkish officials have insisted since Egypt started its mediation effort between Turkey and Syria that talks should concentrate exclusively on security issues.
If the positive turn in relations between the two neighbouring countries continues, diplomatic sources said they expected a meeting to be held between Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem and his Syrian counterpart Farouk Al-Sharaa in Ankara or in Cairo. There is a possibility that Foreign Minister Amr Moussa might also take part in this proposed meeting.
Syrian officials also believe that the latest war of words launched by Turkey was a reflection of domestic problems in Turkey. Turkish Prime Minister Yilmaz is trying to show the public that his government remains firm on the issue of the Kurds ahead of parliamentary elections due to be held early next year.
The Turkish media, apparently losing interest in the Syrian conflict, has instead reopened the file on widespread corruption within the Turkish government and continues to allege links between leading figures and the mafia.
Thus, Syrian observers believe, the security meetings held this week were successful in terms of cooling down the current crisis with Turkey, but the real issues of dispute remain unresolved. These are, namely, the water problem and Syria's claim that Turkey forcibly annexed part of its territory, the Al-Iskandaron region, in 1939.
Turkish officials have refused any mention of the two problems in all of the contacts which took place between the two sides since the crisis flared up nearly three weeks ago.


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