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Turkey's balancing act
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 25 - 10 - 2007

Turkey's vote to sanction a military incursion into northern Iraq hijacked the visit of its foreign minister to Egypt, Dina Ezzat reports
During his one-day visit to Cairo Thursday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babajan met with President Hosni Mubarak, Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif and Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul- Gheit. Babajan also met with Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa at the inter- governmental organisation's Cairo headquarters.
Following each in this series of meetings the top Turkish diplomat held a press conference. And in each press conference the question was probed again and again: is Turkey going to actually invade the all but autonomous Kurdish- controlled northern Iraq region in search of wanted Kurdish rebels?
Babajan was not willing to either confirm or deny military plans on the part of Ankara to target the north of Iraq militarily, either through a massive invasion or by limited military incursion. For Babajan, Turkish rebels, especially those of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), are simply terrorists who should be targeted as part of the overall war on terror, especially given that Turkey is, he said, the direct victim of their repeated attacks. "During [last] month only Turkey lost 30 of its innocent citizens due to the terror attacks of the PKK," Babajan told reporters following his meeting with Mubarak.
This said, Babajan was keen to affirm that the motion adopted by his country's parliament to authorise a possible military intervention in northern Iraq does not necessarily signal inevitable, or for that matter imminent, military action. "It actually has to be made clear that the licence issued [by parliament] is restricted to the follow-up of certain wanted terrorists, should there be a need for such an action," he said.
According to assurances made by the Turkish foreign minister to his interlocutors in Egypt, and later during the week in Lebanon and Syria, Ankara only pursued parliamentary authorisation for a potential military action against northern Iraq after it had failed to secure an effective anti-PKK action through cooperation with the central Iraqi government and US military commanders in Iraq. "We heard many promises, but the terror did not stop," Babajan stated.
And whatever future actions his country might take in northern Iraq, Babajan stressed, would be careful not to underline the de facto separation of northern Iraq from the rest of the country. "For Turkey, it is a matter of principal to maintain Iraq's territorial and political unity," he said following talks with Abul-Gheit. He added that from the point of view of Ankara, "the division of Iraq would mean new problems and in fact new disasters for the region."
During talks with Arab officials, as Babajan and they reported, there was much understanding demonstrated regarding Turkey's concerns over PKK activities and the repercussions of a failure to check such activities for the safety and territorial unity of Turkey. Sources close to meetings had by Babajan this week in Cairo, Beirut and Damascus say that not at any point was he faced with an outright rejection of Ankara's plans to target leading activists of the PKK who are plotting, according to the Turkish government, the separation of parts of Turkey's territories to link it with northern Iraq in a supposedly nascent Kurdish state. Concern, but not opposition, was what Babajan faced. Moreover, sources suggest that during some of his meetings Babajan received genuine sympathy for his country's "suffering of terror".
In a joint press conference Babajan held with Abul-Gheit Thursday afternoon, Babajan heard the top Egyptian diplomat affirming in no uncertain terms that "there are certainly [attacks] carried out inside Turkey that should be condemned. We appreciate the concern of Turkey, and we deplore terror attacks against any country." Furthermore, Abul-Gheit called on "those powers that can exercise authority over the Kurdish region [in northern Iraq] to stand up to [the PKK] and to close the borders in order to end the [problem]." Similar -- and perhaps even more supportive -- statements were heard by Babajan in Damascus, not withstanding Egyptian and Syrian demands for Turkey to give diplomacy a chance to resolve the problem.
In Beirut and at the headquarters of the Arab League, Babajan failed to secure the same level of sympathy. However, he gained offers for diplomatic mediation with some concerned Iraqi leaders, including the effective Kurdish rulers of northern Iraq. "I have already launched a series of consultations with Iraqi officials," Moussa said. He added that he called upon Babajan to acknowledge the "very complex situation" in Iraq. "Iraq is suffering from so many wounds; we cannot add yet another wound. We have to address the security concerns of Turkey with eye on the very security of Iraq," Moussa said. According to informed sources, the warnings were firmer in Beirut against the regional repercussions of a Turkish invasion, limited or full-scale, of northern Iraq.
According to Turkish sources close to the visits of Babajan, the envoy of Ankara was not in Arab capitals to solicit support for a potential invasion. "His tour, that will be followed by another tour to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia was planned prior to the parliament's adoption of a motion sanctioning military action against the terror group of the PKK," said a Turkish diplomat who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. According to this and other Turkish sources, Ankara is not very or fully keen on conducting such a military attack in view of the tensions that would follow in its relations with the US, the EU and Iraq, who have all -- each for different reasons -- opposed such military possibilities in much firmer tones than any Arab capital.
Turkey, according to its officials, is not interested in losing or endangering its business in northern Iraq. It is certainly not interested in further stressing already tense relations with its once very close ally in Washington. Above all, Ankara would not want to antagonise the EU, even as Brussels is still playing tough over Turkey's accession to the EU.
Meanwhile, Turkish diplomatic sources suggest, Turkey knows that despite the sympathy it can garner in certain Arab quarters, when push comes to shove no Arab capital would publicly condone a Turkish invasion. According to one Turkish source, no matter how much some Arab governments may take exception at Kurdish de facto autonomy in northern Iraq, they would ultimately oppose the invasion of an Arab state, especially as Iraq is already suffering under foreign occupation. This is compounded, he added, by the public furore that such an invasion would prompt from the Arab nation that already feels violated by foreign invaders and retains its sensitivity towards former Ottoman rulers.
Indeed, on Monday, as military tension was escalating on the borders between Turkey and Northern Iraq, President Hosni Mubarak appealed to Turkish and Iraqi officials to find a diplomatic exit to the crisis. "I cannot support a Turkish operation into the Iraqi territories and at the same time I cannot but oppose the PKK [attacks] against Turkey."
Ankara categorically does not want to enter into confrontation with the Arab world, Turkish officials say. During his joint press conference with Moussa, Babajan was not short on words to express his country's keenness to cement ties with the Arab world. Indeed, Turkish diplomats say that Ankara is tirelessly pursuing soft but determined diplomatic overtures to bring Syria and Israel towards a negotiating process that could resolve the future of the Golan Heights. Moreover, they say that when Babajan first requested this series of visits to Arab capitals he had intended to discuss future Arab-Turkish cooperation on inducing a semblance of stability in Iraq.
On 2 and 3 November, Istanbul is going to play host to an international/regional meeting on Iraq, similar to the one held in Sharm El-Sheikh last May. The joint meeting of the Iraq Neighbourhood Group and the International Compact with Iraq, Turkish sources say, needs to be "institutionalised". "We think that this is an important mechanism that deserves to be conducted in a more effective way. We are still in preliminary discussion over the matter," a Turkish diplomat said. Babajan's meetings in Arab capitals have so far failed to serve the interest of this exercise. Turkish diplomats say disquiet over the Turkish parliamentary motion sanctioning "intervention" in northern Iraq may continue to "hijack" the Istanbul meeting against the wishes of Ankara.
The dilemma that Ankara appears to be facing today is that its attempts to expand its regional profile in the Middle East, against the backdrop of a painful rejection by the EU, are challenged by its concerns over the PKK's activities and its urge to quell them. The mediation of any Arab party, according to informed Arab sources, could secure the containment of PKK's activities but it would not grant Ankara its request of having some PKK senior leaders arrested and extradited for trial before Turkish courts.


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