One last chance?

By Dina Ezzat
Egypt remains committed to the peace process and continues to hope for a cessation of violence in the occupied Palestinian territories, to which end Cairo has signalled its willingness to participate in an action plan, provided that the Israelis are serious and the Americans are willing to be sufficiently, if not fully, engaged.
"If we feel that the US is keen to seriously continue working on the peace process during the coming few weeks and be more involved in the Middle East than it has been during the past few weeks then we would be ready to work much harder and propose some ideas in a bid to resume the process," an Egyptian diplomatic source told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Tomorrow, US Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering will arrive in Cairo for talks with Foreign Minister Amr Moussa on the US assessment of the chances for resuming negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis in the coming few weeks. Pickering's visit will be the first by a senior American official to the region in months to discuss the peace process.
"The Americans have not had much to do with what is going on; compare what US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright would have done had these events been taking place earlier this year," one diplomat commented.
What Egypt would like to do is to get the Israelis to adopt the confidence-building measures that would provide an incentive for Palestinian President Yasser Arafat to return to the negotiating table.
"Arafat has had a hard time with the poor level of Israeli commitment and he also has to worry about the reaction of his people if he was to ask them to end the Intifada," commented an Arab diplomatic source.
The confidence-building measures envisaged in Cairo include a full end to the Israeli imposed closure of Palestinian cities, a withdrawal of the Israeli army to positions held prior to the eruption of violence, and the reopening Gaza airport.
In a recent meeting in the Jordanian port of Aqaba, Mahmoud Abbas, the second man in the Palestinian Authority, told Moussa and Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdel-Illah Al-Khatib that if these demands were met the Palestinians could seriously contemplate a resumption of negotiations. All three Arab officials, though, agreed that for this to happen the US would need to step in.
The Palestinians, with Egypt's full support, say if negotiations were to be re-started the objective should be a comprehensive agreement that covers all the key issues.
"We are not talking about an interim phase... what we are talking about is a final status accord that should last," said Moussa.
There are, though, no guarantees that the US administration will become fully engaged in the peace process even when the White House has a new incumbent. The situation in Iraq is just as likely to top the American's regional agenda. And with Baghdad making a fuss over its oil exports, the temptation for any new president to assert his authority by launching air strikes against Iraq may well prove irresistible.
The situation is further complicated by Israel's uncertain position. Whether Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak will really opt for an early election or form a national unity government remains unclear. If Barak chooses elections, then he will need either a peace deal or a hard-line anti-Palestinian policy on which he can campaign against former Likud Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu; if he decides on a national unity government he will have to tailor policy towards the Palestinians to the liking of Likud leader Ariel Sharon.
Meanwhile, Egypt is actively encouraging a greater European role. Next Thursday Moussa is planning to hold talks in Cairo with his French counterpart Hubert Vedrine.
"We are hoping for a more active role from the EU," Moussa said earlier this week. France currently holds the chair of the EU.
Egypt is working, too, towards maintaining a unified Arab position. Next Sunday Moussa is flying to the Syrian capital to meet with eight of his Arab counterparts to follow up on the provision of political and economic support to the Palestinians agreed at the Arab summit in Cairo in October. And earlier this week Moussa met with the Arab League Secretary-General Esmat Abdel-Meguid and the nine permanent representatives to the league whose countries are in charge of following up on the Arab summit resolutions. Following the meeting Abdel-Meguid and Moussa said that in the coming few weeks Arab countries will be working intensively towards securing international protection for the Palestinian people in the occupied territories. They also said that the Arab countries will continue to provide support for the Intifada as long as tensions continue.
Related stories:
Underlining 'a clear message' 30 Nov. - 6 Dec. 2000
'There are limits' 23 - 29 November 2000
The cost of vengeance 23 - 29 November 2000
Intifada in focus 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
Intifada special 19 - 25 October 2000
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