What hopes for a reduction in the tensions plaguing the Middle East, wonders Dina Ezzat There are few signs in Cairo, Ramallah, Gaza or Tel Aviv that the region is going to enter a period of stability any time soon. The prevailing mood is one of confrontation, political and military. Palestinians are caught up in the fractious relationship between Fatah, which controls the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas, in charge of the government. Cairo, supposedly the most influential Arab capital, has been unable to move beyond seeking international support for what it sees as the rules that should govern peace-making while the Arab League has failed even to garner basic support for the Palestinian cause. Israel, meanwhile, shows little interest in working towards a political settlement; indeed, the opposite is true, as it continues its military aggression against Palestinians. President Hosny Mubarak has announced that Egypt will keep a vigilant watch over its borders with Israel. This comes at a time when the latter had reiterated that it might take action to destroy tunnels which it alleges run beneath the border and are used to smuggle arms. "In view of the unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Gaza the borders with Gaza are Egyptian- Palestinian borders and there is a full Egyptian- Palestinian cooperation to secure them," said Presidential Spokesman Suleiman Awwad. Israeli officials have made it clear, through diplomatic and security channels, that Israel has no intention of suspending its incursions in Gaza, leading to fears in Cairo that by expanding the coalition to include members from the far right the Israeli government is distancing itself yet further from any temporary or long-term reconciliation. Meanwhile, Cairo's efforts to reconcile Fatah and Hamas have been unsuccessful, with the confrontation descending into violence. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly from Ramallah and Gaza, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah both commend Egyptian efforts though neither has been willing to signal that reconciliation is on the horizon. Egyptian sources affirm that Cairo is now trying to convince Damascus-based Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal to accept a technocrat government in order to bring an end to the current impasse. Unlike a national unity government of Fatah and Hamas, a government of technocrats could sidestep the Hamas taboo on recognising Israel, and its resistance to the Arab Peace Initiative. Meshaal, Awwad told reporters this week, has been invited to Cairo, though sources tell the Weekly the invitation is conditional on his opening the door to an exchange of Palestinian prisoners for the captured Israeli soldier, enhancing the chances of national reconciliation and approving the accession of a government that can communicate with the international community and give the go ahead -- even in tacit terms -- to the Arab Peace Initiative that stipulates normalisation with Israel in return for Israeli withdrawal from territories occupied in 1967, the establishment of Palestinian states within the 1967 borders, and a fair settlement for Palestinian refugees. While it is expected that international financial aid to the Palestinians would be resumed promptly once a new government is in place there is no guarantee that this will produce momentum towards negotiations. According to Yacov Hadas- Handelsman, deputy director- general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Israel will never negotiate with Hamas. The Israeli public, he says, will not tolerate any kind of talks with the Palestinians in the presence of Hamas. "In the eyes of the Israeli public we have already been very generous with our unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and we should have actually asked for something in return," he told the Weekly. Israeli interest in the Arab Peace Initiative, he added, "is in the concept not the details". Given the continued the lack of interest from the US on ending the current stalemate the prognosis is bleak. Against this backdrop Cairo has been intensifying its advocacy within the international community to secure a more constructive position. Acting on the assumption that political negotiations remain unlikely any time soon Cairo is hoping to build a consensus within the international community on how to solve the crisis in the Middle East. Attending last week's meeting of 11 Euro- Mediterranean states in Alicante, Spain -- Israel, the Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon were all absent -- Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul- Gheit argued that it is time to revisit the Roadmap as well as to define what the outcome of the peace process should be and set the parametres for the role of any third party monitoring implementation on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides. Following the meeting Egypt could claim a success of sorts. The 11 Alicante participants did call for an urgent revision of the Roadmap as well as for an international conference to end the current stagnation. This week in Cairo, the EU foreign policy chief expressed support for Cairo's efforts, saying "what is being done by the Egyptians is commendable." The Arab League has also expressed satisfaction with the outcome of the Alicante meeting. Hesham Youssef, chief of the cabinet of the Arab League secretary-general insisted, however, that clear and realistic deadlines need to be included within any revised Roadmap. Youssef also argued that the international community needs to acknowledge the Palestinians' commitment to and implementation of the Roadmap and Israel's reluctance to do so. Both Cairo and the Arab League, however, acknowledge that without a real push from the US there can be no progress. "During her recent visit to the Middle East US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice affirmed that she had heeded the message of the Arab world. If this is really the case then we should expect the US to take some action as soon as it is done with the Congressional elections." If the US does not move, Youssef added, the consequences are likely to be grave. "The price of prolonged stagnation should not be underestimated by anyone in or out of the region."
