Egypt's effort to mediate among Palestinian factions, on one hand, and between the factions and the Israelis, on the other, is floundering at the moment, reports Dina Ezzat Today, the Israeli Foreign Ministry is expected to dispatch its Director- General Ahron Abramovic to meet his counterpart in Cairo for a re-cap following last week's meeting of President Hosni Mubarak and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh last Thursday coincided with a military attack the same day by Israeli occupation forces on Ramallah. The meeting ended in a rare joint press conference, where Mubarak demonstrated unusual impatience towards his Israeli guest. Mubarak's rebuke in the presence of the visiting premier was not only because of the Israeli attack but was equally directed at the failure of Israeli diplomacy to give peace talks with the Palestinian Authority a real chance. The president also expressed deep concern over Israel's nuclear programme. "I expressed dismay regarding the Ramallah operations... and I expressed my deep concern regarding the impact of such operations while affirming the need to refrain from such practices that hamper the efforts [to relaunch political talks], that is if we are at all serious in what we say about resuming peace talks," Mubarak said, with an unmistakable frown on the face of a clearly disappointed Olmert. Official sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that the president had to express anger since the attack on Ramallah coincided with Olmert's visit, supposed to herald some progress, not add despair. "The president is convinced that such operations complicate matters and eliminate the chances of any near resumption of talks." On Friday morning, photos of the strained press conference between Mubarak and Olmert were not given prominence on the front page of the daily Al-Ahram which is generally perceived as the closest reflection of state views. And while this latest cloud is not necessarily an indication of a rift in Egyptian-Israeli talks regarding the Palestinians, it was construed as a sign that Egypt's patience might eventually wear thin. News coming from Israel suggested that last Thursday's press conference left Olmert embarrassed. Israel, Israeli media suggested, may draw up new procedures for special operations in the Palestinian territories. According to Israeli army sources, a new set of rules for authorising military operations are now under consideration, taking into account, among other things, sensitive diplomatic moments. Egypt has not further commented on the issue, but is expected to deal with the question during Abramovic's visit to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry today. In fact, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmed Abul-Gheit, will not be receiving the visiting Israeli diplomat despite an earlier request by Tel Aviv. Abul-Gheit is instead travelling to Turkey. "We will contemplate the Israeli message, but Cairo's position in what it expects of Israel is clear," commented one diplomatic source. It is not yet clear though what exactly is the message Abramovic is conveying to Cairo. Informed sources say they suspect Abramovic's position is closer to that of Israeli Foreign Minister, Tezpi Livni, who has been promoting the idea of serious political talks with the Palestinians, rather than that of Olmert who seems to be solely interested in concluding partial security arrangements without addressing any crucial political matters. Egyptian sources agree that Cairo has made it clear to Tel Aviv that despite its willingness to help with day-in- day-out matters "in order to help the Palestinians have an easier life," Cairo wants to help resume talks over what Abul-Gheit keeps qualifying as "the endgame: a viable and independent Palestinian state". At this point it does not seem that Egyptian officials are willing to project a sense of genuine optimism. The mood is overshadowed by Olmert's recent visit to Sharm El-Sheikh and a Abul-Gheit's recent visit to Tel Aviv, which coincided with an Israeli announcement that military attacks on Gaza will be resumed -- this while the top Egyptian diplomat was conferencing with Olmert in Western Jerusalem. Finally there is the failure of the Egyptian mediation to secure the release of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier kidnapped by Palestinians in June. Egyptian officials, however, insist that their effort has not yet reached an impasse. Future meetings to resolve outstanding problems might seek an active participation of Jordan. Earlier in the week, Abul-Gheit played the proposed four-way summit of Egypt, Jordan, Palestine and Israel. Yesterday, speaking in a joint press conference with his Jordanian counterpart, following a summit meeting between Mubarak and the Jordanian monarch in Cairo, Abul-Gheit insisted it was premature to talk of a four-way summit, especially in the absence of a firm commitment on the side of Israel to honour peace requirements. He, however, explained that there should be no pre-conditions for the relaunch of the peace process. "I believe that all efforts should be exerted to re-start political talks if we were to avoid further deterioration." Yesterday, Abul-Gheit and the Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdulillah Al-Khatib insisted that they were going to urge US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who will begin a Middle East tour tomorrow, to pledge an intensive involvement of Washington in reviving peace talks. For Egypt, it seems that the containment of the current state of inter-Palestinian fighting is a crucial factor in "setting the circumstances right" for a mini-regional summit that could open the door for the resumption of political talks between Palestinians and Israelis. This week, presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad said Egypt was maximising its efforts to prevent further deterioration of the inter-Palestinian conflict. On Monday, in press statements to the official Egyptian News Agency MENA Mubarak warned that "The conflict simply eliminates the hopes of all Palestinians in an independent state. It is a fight, the price of which is paid solely by the Palestinian people." The League of Arab States, according to Assistant Secretary-General Mohamed Sobeih, is also involved in efforts to mend fences between Fatah and Hamas. But neither Cairo nor the Arab organisation sound optimistic about the prospects. According to Abdel-Alim Mohamed, a senior advisor at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, the current stalemate is likely to last for a while. Mohamed, an expert on Israeli-Palestinian affairs, sounded convinced that in the absence of a strong response from Cairo, it was unlikely that the Palestinians will end their fighting or the Israelis will seriously contemplate moving towards a genuine political process. "Egypt's level of frustration and anger will not escalate; it will not go beyond diplomatic statements and the implicit criticism voiced in several world capitals, especially when it comes to lamenting civilian casualties," Mohamed said. Moreover, he added, Egypt's almost phobic concerns regarding Hamas "that originate from the allergy the Egyptian regime has vis-a-vis political Islam in general" will always leave Cairo unable to bring about a permanent end to the current clashes between the Fatah- dominated Palestinian Authority -- "lacking real public support" -- and Hamas which is "firm in its position due to the wide support it enjoys among Palestinians." The trouble, Mohamed argued "is that Cairo is mainly concerned with reaching truces momentarily," he criticised. For Mohamed, truces are always short-lived if not immediately beefed up with serious political action. "Contrary to what Egyptian negotiators believed, the inter-Palestinian truce concluded by Cairo in Egypt in 2005 was not going to last for long." Mohamed is convinced that "despite the many efforts, Egypt has become part of the problem rather than that of the solution." According to Mohamed, nothing much is to be expected from Egypt in the absence of a genuine change in its political approach. This, he argued, would require better relations with Hamas, re-involving Syria which has influence over Hamas, and serious talks with the US, which in turn could influence the Israelis. "It's good that Egypt says a final status rather than a transitional solution needs to be pursued, but it has to act accordingly," Mohamed said, "otherwise a spill-over of the conflict -- Palestinian clashes and Israeli raids on Gaza-- will spread to Egypt's own territory in Sinai."
