Stop gap

By Gamal Nkrumah
Pundits are already writing political obituaries for Joseph Kabila, son of assassinated Congolese President Laurent Kabila. Some even suspect that he is already exploring his options for departure. More substantively, there has been speculation that the succession process indicates that the various leading players are moving towards a peace deal based on a political resolution to the Congolese crisis.
The Congo's new leader was hurriedly installed as president after officiating over his father's funeral on Tuesday. A number of African leaders were in attendance, including the late president's chief allies Presidents Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Sam Nujoma of Namibia and Eduardo dos Santos of Angola. "We went there to protect the people of Congo. We can't desert them at this critical moment," explained Zimbabwe's Defence Minister Moven Mahachi. Mahachi stressed that the 12,000 Zimbabwean troops stationed in the DRC will remain there for the time being. Angola, with 6,000 troops in Congo, announced that it will be sending reinforcements to Kinshasa and Lubumbashi, Congo's second largest city and economic hub.
"To ensure continuity in the management of state affairs and safeguard property and people, the [interim administration] decided to entrust control of government and military high command to Major-General Joseph Kabila," Congolese Information Minister Dominique Sakombi told Radio France International. Sakombi also confirmed earlier reports that Kabila was shot at point-blank range by one of his personal bodyguards, who in turn was chased and killed.
Dispirited and disgruntled, Congo's rag-tag army has emerged as the country's most serious handicap. The Rwandan- and Ugandan-backed armed opposition forces have taken the pick of the Congolese forces. Kabila had built up his battalions by paring down the forces defending the capital and mining towns. The armed opposition, meanwhile, cut his lines of communication and made it difficult for him to take up defensive positions.
Kabila awarded lucrative mining concessions, most notably of diamonds, to Angola, Namibia and especially Zimbabwe, which incensed his citizens. As town after town fell, Kabila was forced to rely more heavily on foreign mercenaries. Ultimately, he became totally dependent on troops from Zimbabwe and Angola.
Kabila's military incompetence was compounded by his penchant for initiating unjustifiable independent actions, the most glaring of which was when he turned against the Rwandan army that had initially brought him to power. Worse still, he vented his frustration on his dejected generals by sacking three of them just before he was assassinated, and then appointing his son as the chief of the armed forces.
A cleverer leader may have been able to stave off disaster. Kabila's impetuosity, however, cost him his life. He crudely played his allies against one another, and ditched his friends. This resulted in a few fortunate individuals being elevated to the status of leader, and many more being undermined.
The question now is whether the death of Kabila and the quick inauguration of his son Joseph as Congolese president will put an end to the latest round of political in-fighting or whether there is still more to come. Exactly why Kabila was murdered is still far from clear. The identity of the assassin, for instance, is still being questioned. There is circumstantial evidence that points to premeditated murder. The Congolese authorities say that one of Kabila's personal bodyguards, named Rashidi, was the killer. But all 20 of Kabila's hand-picked bodyguards were promptly arrested. Only one man witnessed what happened: Kabila's economic adviser Emile Mota.
What is strange is that Rashidi hails from the north-eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo, a region now in the firm grip of rebel hands. Why weren't bodyguards from Kabila's own kith and kin in the southern province of Katanga chosen to protect the president instead? Wasn't entrusting the president's life to someone from his enemy-held territories at best foolhardy, even bordering on the absurd? More generally, no clear motive for the assassination has come to light.
Unsurprisingly, in Kinshasa rumours are rife. The armed opposition forces who control virtually two-thirds of the vast country point accusing fingers at one of Kabila's chief allies, Angola. Amid growing resentment of foreign troops in Kinshasa, there are increasing signs of tension among the restless 4,000 Angolan troops stationed in Congo. The Angolan troops do not particularly relish being seen as an occupying power and are yearning to return to the relative safety of the Angolan capital Luanda. However, Luanda wants them to stay put. "We suspect the coup was approved by Luanda because the Angolan army controls everything in Kinshasa. If you don't have the approval of Angola, you can't do anything in Kinshasa," explained Kin-Kiey Mulumba, spokesman for the Rwandan-backed Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD).
Even though it has a population of over 50 million, the Congo's armed forces number less than 30,000. Rwanda, with a population of barely 10 million, has a 55,000-strong army, reputedly the best organised and disciplined in the region. Uganda, with a somewhat less disciplined armed force of 50,000, comes a close second. The Congo is a desperately poor country with an annual per capita income of less than $100. The economy is in a shambles. Social unrest is aggravating the security situation, while ethnic conflict has flared up in different parts of the country.
The presence of foreign armies complicates matters further. Namibia said its 2,000-strong force will remain in the Congo. Uganda backs the Congolese Liberation Movement (MLC) based in the northern Equator province. The Rwandan-backed RCD, meanwhile, controls much of the east and south-east. However, the Maji-Maji traditional warrior groups in eastern Congo are opposed to Rwandan hegemony.
Some 1.7 million Congolese have lost their lives since civil war broke out in 1997, and Kabila's demise will serve no particular political ends. There are suspicions that the Congolese generals and Kabila's allies believe that his less experienced and politically even more vulnerable son will prove to be more compliant to their demands.
The new Congolese president's ethnic background might also be a determining factor. The Chinese-trained Joseph showed little signs of keen military acumen when he took charge of the Congolese army at his father's behest. But there might be a political motive for the quick Kabila family succession. The 32-year-old Joseph was born to an ethnic Tutsi woman and is more conversant in English and Swahili, the lingua franca of eastern and southern Congo. French and Lingala, the hallmarks of the ancien regime of former Congolese military dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, are more widely spoken in the Congolese capital Kinshasa and in western parts of the country.
The Congolese military, including mercenaries from the southern and eastern reaches of Congo, now use Swahili. In Mobutu's day they spoke Lingala, like the people in the capital. The language barrier is fast alienating the Congolese government from the people. Xenophobic sentiments have become par for the course. The people of Kinshasa regarded Kabila and the new ruling clique as outsiders at best, and an occupying foreign force at worst. The Angolan presence is equally abhorred.
A voice of reason has come from an unlikely quarter. One of the first African leaders to be contacted by the Congolese political establishment in the aftermath of Kabila's assassination was Libya's Muammar Gaddafi. Even as news of Kabila's death emerged, the Congolese Defence Minister Godefroid Tchamlesso flew to Libya for consultations with Gaddafi. After the meeting, the Libyan leader urged Africans to "help the Congolese people preserve their national unity rather than take advantage of the situation to expose the country's territories to collapse and disintegration." Gaddafi added that Libya was "in direct touch with all parties in the DRC." He does have the ear of Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni and is a friend of Rwandan strongman Paul Kagame, who many see as the real power-broker in the Congo.
Related stories:
Congo's fate in doubt 18 - 24 January 2001
Pinochet, Ocalan, Kabila 3 - 9 December 1998
Scrambling over Congo 27 August - 2 September 1998
Congolese d�j� vu 20 - 26 August 1998
Fall-out in the Great Lakes 11 - 17 June 1998
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