In the wake of last Sunday's presidential elections, Gamal Nkrumah examines the various candidates and their proposed solutions to Congo's problems "You'll go far, my son," Laurent Kabila is reputed to have told his son, Joseph. Kabila the father, the self-styled revolutionary fighter and enormous gourmand much given to beautiful women, was radically different in character and political outlook from his pro-Western, lean and reverent son. The father had an ambiguous attitude towards the West. The son, on the other hand, is seen by many of his subjects as a Western puppet. Indeed, many in the Democratic Republic of Congo believe that without Western backing incumbent President Joseph Kabila would not be able to stay in office. Many Congolese suspect that the result of last Sunday's elections is a forgone conclusion and that Western powers will make sure that Kabila retains control. Meanwhile, an estimated 1,000 people are dying daily from conflict-induced hunger and disease. Tension is palpable in may parts of the country -- political and ethnic tensions are simmering below the seemingly serene surface of Congolese politics. The old nostrum of tribal politics is rearing its ugly head in contemporary Congo. The Congolese are roughly divided into two main camps: Easterners, who by and large speak Kiswahili as their lingua franca, and are supporting the incumbent Kabila; and Westerners, who speak Lingala (the Bangala) and who back his main rival -- Jean-Pierre Bemba Gombo. Bemba, one of four Congolese vice presidents in the outgoing transitional government of Kabila, heads the Movement for the Liberation of Congo and owns several media outlets. He hails from the northwestern part of Congo, the same region of the late Congolese dictator Mobutu Sese Seku. Indeed, his brother-in-law, François Joseph Mobutu Nzanga Ngogangawe, a son of Mobutu and another youthful presidential hopeful, is head of the rival -- but far politically weaker -- Union of Democratic Mobutists (UDEMO). While Bemba has much political support throughout western Congo, UDEMO's popularity is confined to the home region of Mobutu. There is a lot to be said for an opposition politician who does not automatically kick his president in the teeth every time he opens his mouth. The oldest presidential candidate, the octogenarian Antoine Gizenga, is one such presidential aspirant. He languished in the prisons of Mobutu, but he is a political survivor. He leads the Unified Lumumbist Party that upholds the leftist legacy of the country's first elected prime minister and legendary leader Patrice Lumumba. The question of competence is more complex. And a fourth presidential candidate has made a good showing, precisely because he stresses proficiency and competence -- Professor Oscar Kashala, an ethnic Luba (Congo's largest ethnic group). Kashala, a Harvard-educated pharmacist who promises a new political dispensation if he wins last Sunday's presidential elections, is popular with the young and urban Congolese who see him as a role-model. A growing number of Congolese think the fresh Kashala approach has something going for it. He lived and worked in the United States for many years and only returned recently to Congo and claims that he is ready to shake up the Congolese political system. Kashala's popularity goes beyond the confines of his fellow Luba people who inhabit the mineral-rich and fertile provinces of Eastern and Western Kasai and the northern reaches of Katanga -- the richest Congolese province with vast copper, industrial diamond and uranium deposits. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has 30 per cent of the world's diamond reserves and 70 per cent of the world's coltan, a rare mineral indispensable to the production of mobile phones. Congo also has huge reserves of bauxite, cobalt, copper, uranium and vanadium. The tragedy is that the vast majority of the Congolese people are desperately poor. Infant mortality is 125 per 1,000 births -- the African average is 100 per 1,000 births. Congo also has one of the highest rates of HIV/AIDS infection in Africa. Kashala, given his medical background, has grandiose plans to revamp the Congolese health- care system. The more interesting question is whether any of the 32 Congolese presidential candidates will actually oust Kabila from office. The opposition's problem is that repeated failure has made cowards of them. Many now prefer to strike deals with Kabila. But is taking the business of agreeing with Kabila's government too far such a clever tactic? One veteran opposition politician, Etienne Tshisekedi, boycotted the presidential elections. The influential Luba leader and head of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress dismisses the elections as sham. He will have no part in a predetermined game, he said. His supporters claim that President Kabila isn't fit to rule because he is actually a Rwandan, and not Congolese. True, the president speaks a heavily-accented French, the official language, with difficulty -- he is far more proficient in English and Kiswahili, his native tongue. Born in Fizi, eastern Congo -- a birth ostensibly witnessed by Vice President Abdoullaye Yerodia -- he grew up in Dar-es-Salam, Tanzania, and regards the late Tanzanian leader, Julius Nyerere, as his political mentor. "I have a vision for Congo. I want highways from north to south, from east to west. I want universities in the capital of each provide," said President Joseph Kabila. "I want to improve the situation of the people," the 35-year-old incumbent added. Other presidential candidates stand a lesser chance of winning, and their popularity is largely restricted to their home regions. Among these are Azarias Ruberwa, a lawyer from Kivu Province and head of the Congolese Rally for Democracy- Goma faction, and Roger Lumbala, a former external trade minister and leader of the Rally for Democracy-National faction. Arthur Zohidi Ngoma, another of the four vice presidents and the candidate of the Force of the Future, was a leader of the Rally for Democracy before it split. Former finance minister Eugene Diomi Ngongala is head of the Christian Democratic Party. None of these candidates exudes the charisma to control the sprawling Congo. A contested result would be the worst possible outcome. If no presidential candidate wins 51 per cent of the vote that took place last Sunday, there would be a re-run presidential poll on 29 October. The final tally is expected to be announced by the end of the month. In spite of pronouncements by foreign observers such as the Atlanta-based Carter Centre and the United Nations Mission in Congo (MONUC), most experts agree that the elections were relatively free and fair with very little violence. These are the first elections in Congo in 40 years. The regime of the late despot Mobutu Sese Seku was toppled in 1997 when Laurant Kabila stormed the Congolese capital Kinshasa. There are fears, however, that votes were dumped and in some constituencies the voting tallies do not add up. The biggest challenge for the Congolese opposition is to establish the credibility it currently lacks. Only then will Congolese democracy be judged a success. The Congo's elections on Sunday were supposed to be a decisive step in the country's transition towards a fledgling democracy. Congo's opposition must help lay the ghost of past despotic, authoritarian rule, the one- party state and civil war. They need to lead opinion and opposing views, not follow Kabila's directives.
