Vulnerable but defiant

By Nyier Abdou
Since the violent 1998 riots that forced former Indonesian dictator Suharto to cede power to B J Habibie, Indonesians have been hoping for a period of much-needed stability. But "people power" has returned to the news headlines in recent months -- notably with the removal of Philippine President Joseph Estrada last month -- and ongoing clashes between protesters and traditionally trigger-happy Indonesian riot police over corruption charges levied against embattled President Wahid have plunged the country into yet another round of political agitation and uncertainty.
Incorrigibly arrogant, Wahid initially dismissed charges of his involvement in two financial scandals as political backstabbing and went on to chastise a parliamentary committee set up to investigate the claims as illegal. The rumblings began last May when Wahid's personal masseur was accused of embezzling some $4.1 million worth of funds from the state-run food agency Bulog. The subsequent cries of corruption gained momentum when it was revealed that Wahid had failed to disclose a $2 million donation from the sultan of Brunei. When parliament met to consider the committee's final, allegedly damning, report at the end of January, an estimated 10,000 students gathered in angry protest on the streets of Jakarta calling for Wahid's resignation. On 1 February, parliament voted overwhelmingly to censure Wahid, a move that infuriated his supporters. The censure kicked off a long and complicated impeachment process, in which the president has three months to formally respond to the charges. Venting their pent-up frustration with Wahid's erratic rule, protesters have responded furiously.
The October 1999 election from which Wahid emerged victorious was supposed to be Indonesia's new lease on life, the short-lived stewardship of Habibie having set the stage for a cleaner break from the 32-year-long Suharto era. Still recovering from the devastating 1997 Asian financial crisis and limping along with the help of international aid, the world's fourth most populous country was crippled by restive provinces with separatist aspirations and public apathy towards a critically corrupt political system rife with nepotism, intrigue and back-room deals. The scene was set for the nation's first democratically elected president, promising government transparency and an end to corruption, to come to power through deft political manoeuvring in closed-door negotiations. Wahid's National Awakening Party won a mere 10 per cent of seats in parliament, but through a surprising reshuffle of alliances, the well-respected Muslim cleric patched together a testy coalition that sidestepped widely popular candidate Megawati Sukarnoputri, whose Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) captured the most seats. Outraged Megawati supporters were then reined in with a final act of political panache when Wahid took on the nationalist leader -- and daughter of the country's first head-of-state, President Sukarno -- as his vice-president.
People were eager to view Wahid, nearly blind and crippled by two strokes, as an aloof philosopher-king -- the anti-Suharto. As leader of the 40-million-strong Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) -- one of the world's largest Muslim organisations -- during the Suharto era, Wahid maintained a moderate but outspoken voice in politics. A powerful figure for decades, Wahid was widely considered to be capable of bringing Indonesia back to a calm and orderly existence.
Ironically, Wahid's distinguished background may be his undoing. A highly educated scholar, Wahid studied at Baghdad University and Cairo's Al-Azhar University. He is revered as a spiritual leader by millions of followers and this exalted status is evident in his ruling style. Wahid began his presidency with a cabinet full of leading party members, but gradually dismissed them capriciously and without explanation to an exasperated parliament. Repeatedly criticised for his egotism and insolence, Wahid ultimately alienated crucial allies who could have proved instrumental in averting the current crisis.
While parallels to recent developments in the Philippines -- the corrupt and iron-fisted rule of deposed dictator Ferdinand Marcos was still fresh in the minds of Filipinos when they gathered in the hundreds of thousands to call for Estrada's resignation -- are tempting, there are salient differences. Wahid has the fervent backing of the NU, and any affront to his leadership has sparked vehement protest from his followers. Following the parliament's decision to censure the president, pro-Wahid demonstrators in his home province of East Java, the NU heartland, came out in the thousands to give lawmakers a taste of what would come should Wahid be removed. A dismayed Vice-President Megawati condemned the violence and destruction as something that "should not happen in a democratic state."
Crucially -- and unlike Estrada in the Philippines -- Wahid still has the support, albeit wavering, of his vice-president. Also, he has yet to be charged with enriching himself through government funds; so far he has only been implicated in breaching the country's anti-corruption laws. Legal experts have noted that the evidence against Wahid is, in fact, tenuous, and attempts to remove him are most likely the last resort of an opposition that has lost patience with his antics. Had Wahid been less imperious, the situation may never have come this far.
Wahid may be complicit in his unpopularity, but short of speedy and miraculous improvements in the country's economic and political situation, the beleaguered leader was bound to come up against widespread disappointment. Although he promised to wield a firm but compassionate hand towards the separatist struggles of Aceh and Irian Jaya, conflicts continue to simmer in these and other regions of the increasingly fragile archipelago. Detractors say his too frequent trips abroad leave him little time to deal with the country's problems. When violence erupted last weekend in the tense province of Central Kalimantan, on the island of Borneo, Wahid refused to delay his scheduled trip to Africa and the Middle East. By mid-week, a staggering 400 people were reported killed in a spate of gruesome violence between native Dayaks and immigrants from Madura Island, but Wahid left the crisis in the hands of his vice-president.
To take leave at such a critically sensitive time, Wahid must have immense faith in the loyalty of Vice-President Megawati, who is now prey to opposition forces bent on using his absence to fuel unrest. Should she withdraw her already shaky support, it will be difficult for Wahid to keep his head above water, particularly with the military liable to throw its weight behind Megawati. In the end the ambitious populist leader may be driven to unseat Wahid, even if, remembering her own father's ouster, she is reluctant to do so under the present circumstances. Again, the comparison to Estrada, who was replaced by Vice-President Gloria Marcapagal-Aroyyo (also the daughter of a former president), begs to be drawn. But as the Philippines celebrates the success of a bloodless popular coup, Indonesia will need to brace itself for clashes that could wreak havoc on a nation teetering on the brink of collapse.
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