High noon at Tora Bora?

Will the US get its man? As the war in Afghanistan enters its final phase, Galal Nassar looks at some of the factors impacting on the US's hopes of capturing Bin Laden
Although the war in Afghanistan has entered its final phase, now that the Taliban forces have lost most of their strategic strongholds, the fact that Bin Laden and the Taliban leadership are still at large presents a danger to the Northern Alliance and the US presence in central Asia. Because the Taliban and Al-Qa'eda forces are currently on the run inside Afghanistan and face dwindling chances of escaping across the borders, the decisive confrontation remains to be played out between these groups and the US marines.
President George Bush had charged General Tommy R Franks, commander-in-chief of the US Central Command and the commander of the international coalition forces, with drawing up a plan for an extended operation to capture Bin Laden "dead or alive." For the US public, watching the events unfold in Afghanistan hour after hour, this must be the logical outcome of the war effort. Franks has mobilised hundreds of the Ringers and Delta Special Forces, meaning that he has almost as many marines as would comprise a full brigade at his disposal. Meanwhile, US forces have sustained intensive missile and aerial bombardment against Taliban lines over the past few days.
That these efforts have so far failed to ensnare Bin Laden and Mullah Mohamed Omar raises several questions. Why did Franks call in the marines for this mission when US special forces had already been on the ground for some time in Afghanistan in the vicinity of Kandahar? Given that hundreds of Arab Afghans have surrendered and dozens were killed as the Taliban forces fall into ever greater disarray, why did the US command mobilise additional forces? Finally, will Tommy Franks with his recently augmented forces now be able to accomplish the primary objectives of capturing Bin Laden, eliminating Al-Qa'eda and dismantling the Taliban regime?
The answers to these questions preoccupy the Americans and, certainly, Bin Laden, as well. So far the US strikes, which have lasted more than 55 days, essentially achieved their military objectives, having succeeded in destroying the Taliban and Al-Qa'eda infrastructure, rendering them incapable of mounting any new offensive, and paving the way for a new ruling coalition in Afghanistan. However, the capture of Bin Laden still remains the mission that must be accomplished at any price. Not only was this the promise Bush gave to the American public at the outset of the operation, it is also intended to serve as a powerful deterrent against any future attempts to attack US interests. This explains why the US command is determined to prevent Northern Alliance forces from entering Jalalabad, Kunduz and Kandahar. The Americans want to get hold of Bin Laden themselves so that no one else can claim credit for this victory, as was the case when the Northern Alliance entered Kabul, Mazar-i Sharif and Herat.
Nevertheless, in the pursuit of its mission, the US command is also determined to avoid the protracted guerrilla warfare and full scale ground offensive that the Soviet Union became mired in when it invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s. To ensure that its mission could be accomplished in as short a time as possible and with minimal losses to US troops, the US command adopted a threefold strategy. Firstly, it sought to trap Taliban and Al-Qa'eda forces within as small an area as possible, subjecting them to relentless aerial bombardment and encouraging anti-Taliban Pashtun tribes to wage limited assaults, but without entering Taliban strongholds, all with the aim of wearing down the two groups. Secondly, the US command moved to seal off all possible escape routes out of Afghanistan. Towards this end, Northern Alliance forces have been given the go-ahead to occupy certain cities and villages near Afghanistan's borders, such as Achin which is opposite the Pakistani border region city of Quetta. Russia also assisted by deploying armed forces units in the Pamir mountains, which straddle Afghanistan's border with Tajikistan, and India made a similar contribution in the mountainous areas in Kashmir.
In tandem with these measures, the US command sought to gather all possible intelligence on the locations of Bin Laden's and Mullah Omar's hideouts. Of key importance to this task were the RQ-1 Predator reconnaissance planes that were sent to fly over mountainous areas and transmit live footage of the terrain below to the US command base in Tajikistan or to the Bagram base in Afghanistan. Simultaneously, CIA special forces units were sent into Afghanistan, sporting native dress and newly grown beards, to offer generous bribes in return for any information on the whereabouts of Bin Laden. While those efforts were underway, the broadcasting station of the special operations airborne forces broadcast messages and US aircraft transmitted messages and air-dropped leaflets urging the Afghan people to turn in Bin Laden and offered generous rewards for information leading to his capture. According to US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld, the prospect of financial reward has "fired" the Afghans' enthusiasm to participate in the hunt for the Saudi dissident.
Although Franks has made numerous attempts to act on the information he has gathered, Bin Laden is still at large. Meanwhile, Mullah Omar has declared on radio broadcasts and in several press interviews that some 40,000 Taliban fighters are still vowing to fight to the death in Afghanistan. He added that the Taliban is currently arming its friends from the Al-Qa'eda organisation in preparation for jihad, and that the US is in for many surprises. Mullah Omar also ordered his followers to hold their ground and not give up any positions. "This is not a question of tribes, but a question of Islam. Do not evacuate any area," he told them.
The recent fighting around Kunduz and the dramatic capture of that city was a significant turning point in the course of the war. Two weeks ago the US command began to observe changes in the Taliban's movements following its withdrawal from Kabul. At first the Taliban retreated to the south-east, near Kandahar, but then they began to head northwards towards the Hindukush mountains that divide the country lengthwise into two. Taliban forces also held on to several positions south of Kabul to protect their route of retreat from Jalalabad into the mountains. That the Taliban had refused to withdraw temporarily from Kunduz confirmed their intent to return to the mountainous north, compelling Franks, during his recent visit to the Bagram base, to take the decision to deploy US ground forces in Afghanistan in the hopes of hastening Bin Laden's capture.
A marines officer deputising for Franks in central command had suggested that the marines were the most appropriate branch of the army to achieve this objective, now that the US has access to bases inside Afghanistan. The marines, he said, were best suited for the task because they were equipped with lightweight tanks capable of manoeuvring rapidly across the most rugged terrain. They also possess Warrior armoured vehicles, which can move as fast as tanks, mobile anti-tank missile launchers and HH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, one of the fastest means of transporting relatively large numbers of troops. The officer added that the marines were the only US land force to have their own air force, which includes Harrier fighter planes. These aircraft can take off vertically from ship decks and are able to land on various ground installations.
Equipped with missiles and cluster bombs, the Harrier is capable of flying at an altitude of approximately 3,700 metres, giving it the advantages of precision targeting and manoeuvrability. Finally, not only can the marines be rapidly deployed from ships stationed off the coast of Pakistan, the transport planes and helicopters can also move their armoured vehicles, which, together with these forces, would provide effective fire cover for special forces.
Although the Taliban now control only four Afghan provinces, the search for Bin Laden still depends primarily on accurate intelligence concerning his whereabouts. Once such information becomes available, special forces can act at the appropriate time, protected by the marines, or the marines can move in, should it transpire that Bin Laden takes refuge in a cave in the mountains. In the meantime the B-5211 Stratofortress could sustain aerial bombardment.
Should the US forces succeed in pinpointing Taliban and Al-Qa'eda hideouts, they will have several options. One is to smoke out the groups' members and take them prisoner. Another is to kill them outright, perhaps through recourse to the most deadly means in use in Afghanistan today, which is to bomb closed the entrances of the caves. Some military experts have proposed other alternatives for this cave warfare, such as directing bombs in a manner that would precipitate an avalanche of rocks that would seal off the air vents to a cave and cause those inside to suffocate. Should the Americans wish to capture those inside alive, US forces could drill holes into the sealed-off cave and pump in a chemical gas to knock out those hiding within. Other military experts counter that the proposal is not feasible and that it would be more practical to bomb the entrances and wait for those inside to come rushing out.
In spite of the US command's excellent capacities for developing precise scenarios and planning, considerable difficulties are bound to present themselves on the ground. The major problems remain the lack of reliable information on Bin Laden's whereabouts and the hostile terrain of the Hindukush and Panjshir mountains where he is most likely hiding. Add to this the fact that Afghanistan's mountain ranges branch off from those in Pakistan, China and Tajikistan, rendering it even more difficult to seal off the country's 2,383-kilometre border with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkey, its 71-kilometre border with China, its 2,466-kilometre border with Pakistan and its 849-kilometre border with Iran.
According to US sources, following the retreat of Taliban forces from northern and western Afghanistan, surveillance and pursuit operations have only focused on two areas: Kandahar and the area just to its south-west, and Tora Bora with its mountainous surroundings in Nangarhar in the eastern-most part of the country.
Several Afghan news sources have said that Mullah Omar and Bin Laden are still in or near Kandahar. These reports are based on alleged sightings of the former in a small van in the Kandahar market. The same sources have said that Bin Laden moves from one place to another by horseback and spends his nights in the caves around Tora Bora, a village near Kandahar. The reports add that Al-Qa'eda is paying $50 to each family in the area and that there are some 2,000 highly trained and experienced Afghan Arabs in Tora Bora, armed with a variety of weaponry including short-range missiles.
The Tora Bora camps are reported to be only accessible by horseback, and the area's many caves are hidden amidst dense forests. Russian army sources recently described the caves of Tora Bora as "the latest NATO engineering invention." In the mid-1980s, Afghan anti-Soviet resistance forces turned the caves into high-tech strongholds, allocating for this purpose some of the millions of dollars they received clandestinely from the US and Gulf countries. The Soviet Union used everything in its arsenal, with the exception of nuclear weapons, but failed to make even a dent in the defences of this area, although perhaps the more advanced missile systems of the US will succeed where Soviet forces failed.
Tora Bora, moreover, is within easy reach of the Pakistan border through a network of trails. At the time of the Soviet occupation, arms and other supplies were funnelled into Afghanistan along these routes on the backs of mules. The journey took three days. Intelligence sources believe that Bin Laden might attempt to use these paths to slip across the border into Pakistan if Tora Bora is attacked.
In light of these considerations, it would appear that the chances of capturing Bin Laden alive or forcing him to surrender are slim. The alternative is for the US command to obtain precise information on Bin Laden's location and then unleash US bombers and missiles against it, or for Bin Laden to engage with US ground forces, prospects that would eliminate President Bush's chance of revelling in the ultimate victory of catching Bin Laden alive.
Recommend this page
See
WAR special pages
© Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved
Send a letter to the Editor