Plus ça change...

Assessing the US and Northern Alliance's military-strategic performance in Afghanistan, Galal Nassar asks what the seemingly impressive results mean for the country's internal stability in the future
Some see the fall of Kabul and subsequent loss of other provinces and major cities to Afghan opposition forces as a repeat of an old pattern, but in reverse. Five years ago, Taliban forces entered Kabul, meeting virtually no resistance, as anti-Taliban fighters retreated to Mazar-i Sharif and from there to the Panj River valley to recoup their forces and launch a new assault against the Taliban. For others, the recent developments in Afghanistan represent the natural extension of the 12-year-long power struggle between warring Afghan factions, during which control over major cities and strategic locations alternated between the groups, depending upon the influence of regional and international powers. Thus, not long ago, Kabul was in the hands of Afghan freedom fighters; only yesterday it was in the hands of the Taliban; today it is under the control of the Northern Alliance, and no one can predict its fate tomorrow.
Regardless of which scenario is deemed most likely to occur, the rapid erosion of Taliban positions, culminating in the fall of Kabul was the product of a combination of military and strategic factors. Firstly, although Kabul is the capital of Afghanistan and the symbol of national sovereignty, it was never a major centre for the Taliban or Al-Qa'eda organisation. As the city did not have a large concentration of Taliban militias, it was easy for the movement to withdraw from it in a matter of hours, without sustaining human or material losses. This also explains why there was no popular resistance in Kabul, neither against the withdrawing Taliban or the incoming Northern Alliance.
It was as though this changing of the guard hardly concerned the people of Kabul, however much the Western media played up the shaving of beards and casting off of veils that accompanied the Taliban's retreat. The beard and veil, we should remember, are an intrinsic part of Afghan culture, and perhaps the longest beards in Afghanistan are those worn by Burhaneddin Rabbani and his Northern Alliance allies. Simultaneously, the rapid advance of the Northern Alliance would not have been possible without the intensive US air strikes against Taliban positions in Kabul, Mazar-i Sharif, Herat and Kandahar. Over a period of 40 days, US forces dropped more than 9,000 tons of bombs and launched 90 Tomahawk missiles. And although the Taliban claim that they were not greatly affected by the bombardment, they cannot deny that it disrupted their control systems and supply lines, forcing their front lines to face the oncoming Northern Alliance with virtually no back-up support, not to mention the effect this had on the morale of Taliban forces in general. Then, during the 10 days preceding the fall of Kabul, US forces not only intensified their bombing of Taliban front lines, but extended the range of strikes to include fuel and ammunition depots and strategic points on the roads leading to Mazar-i Sharif, Kabul and Jalalabad.
These tactics succeeded in separating Taliban forces to the north-east of Mazar-i Sharif from the Taliban forces to the south of that city and in destroying the movement's supply routes to the front. US strikes unleashed 22 900-kilogramme bombs in one go on the villages of Duwashat and Akhlak, and destroyed Kasya some 50 kilometres north-east of Kabul, thereby allowing the Northern Alliance to gain control over four of the seven roads leading to Kabul.
US special forces accompanying the Northern Alliance on the ground were invaluable to enhancing the efficiency of the air strikes. These forces helped direct to their targets B-52 and B-2 bombers, which are capable of carrying of 32,000 kilogrammes of bombs and dropping them over a relatively narrow strip of land, thereby keeping Taliban forces under 24-hour assault. Of strategic importance, too, were the F-14, F-16 and F-18 tactical fighter planes, which brought a precision to targeting unseen at the outset of the operations. The increasingly concentrated use of the 750- kilogramme BLU-82 "Daisy Cutter" bombs which detonate one metre above ground, destroying an area 56 metres square without leaving a crater, have also enhanced the US's targeting capacity. These bombings were particularly effective in preventing Taliban forces retreating from Mazar-i Sharif from reaching Kabul.
Another factor that was instrumental in the rapid fall of Kabul was the Northern Alliance's success in convincing local tribes to give up their allegiance to the Taliban. The movement had obtained the tribes' support five years earlier when they took over Kabul, Mazar-i Sharif and Herat. Within a month, the shifting of allegiances during this operation brought some 10,000 additional fighters into the ranks of the Northern Alliance. The newly recruited conscripts were paid 50 cents a day. Russia, too, helped bolster Northern Alliance forces by supplying them with 400 vehicles, including mobile missile launchers, tanks, armoured vehicles and lorries. It was also reported that Russia gave the Northern Alliance $1 million to win over Pashtun and Taliban leaders. Indeed, one could characterise the operation in Afghanistan as being Russian on the ground and American in the air.
The fall of the northern Taliban stronghold of Mazar-i Sharif marked the first major turning point in the war and opened the approaches to Kabul. It has been suggested that the US command drew up the plans for the assault on Mazar-i Sharif and that the implementation of those plans was overseen by US special forces. Seizing Mazar-i Sharif prior to the advance on Kabul was deemed preferable to Jalalabad to the south, because holding the northern city would enable the creation of a land bridge from Uzbekistan and the securing of the most important northern airport and the major supply routes to Kabul.
Following the fall of Kabul, the focus of operations has shifted to the pursuit of Taliban and Al-Qa'eda leaders. US forces are taking an active part in this campaign. On Friday, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said that American special forces were active in Afghanistan, shooting Taliban fighters and members of Al-Qa'eda. "US special forces in Afghanistan have sometimes met resistance and had to call in air support. Some have been wounded, but none killed. They're killing the Taliban who won't surrender and Al-Qa'eda forces that are trying to move from one place to another," Rumsfeld told reporters.
Other members of the international coalition are mobilising to take part. British forces are already stationed at the Bagram air base north of Kabul, and French, Canadian and German troops are expected to arrive shortly. Turkey, too, has announced that it is willing to take part in the military operation, but raised astonished eyebrows this week when its minister of defence said, "Ankara has certain conditions for agreeing to participate in the international force, the most important of which is that Turkey assume its command." Ankara also declared that the future government in Kabul should be modeled on Turkey's secular system, asserting that it would furnish the best means to integrate the various ethnic groups in Afghanistan. The US and its Western allies responded that the Turkish suggestion would provoke the strong religious sensitivities in Afghanistan and generate a powerful opposition on the basis that Afghans would equate a secular government with a foreign-backed one.
In theory at least, Taliban and Al-Qa'eda forces will be unable to wage an effective response to the combined Northern Alliance- international coalition assault without the support of the Afghan population and a solid logistics network. The most they can do at present is to hole up in some of Afghanistan's many hideaways and wage guerrilla operations from there. However, under the current circumstances it does not appear that the Taliban-Al-Qa'eda forces would be able to sustain guerrilla combat for a lengthy period. That they were able to do so effectively for 10 years during the Soviet occupation was only possible because of a broad base of popular support domestically and considerable international support, notably from the US.
According to Pakistani intelligence sources, as reported in the US press, Taliban forces have retreated to the south-western provinces of the country, which had formerly served as the strongholds of the Afghan anti-Soviet resistance. Others may have crossed over to Pakistan and taken refuge in the tribal areas outside of the control of Islamabad. It has also been reported that Taliban and Al-Qa'eda fighters have been stocking up on canned goods and purchasing livestock, most likely for the purpose of slaughtering and subsequently drying the meat. But experts say that such provisioning will not enable the Taliban and Al-Qa'eda to withstand the onslaught of their Afghan and foreign enemies for long.
Ali Jalali, one of the foremost experts on the military situation in Afghanistan and the head of the Voice of America's Persian service, said, "Even if they [the Taliban and Afghan fighters] store ammunition and food supplies in caves, if they can't control the areas surrounding the caves, the caves will become tombs. Also, the more they take to the mountains, the more difficult it will become to keep their hideouts secret because people will eventually expose them. In Afghanistan, everybody knows everything that's happening around them." He added, "The Pashtun [in the south] might be able to guarantee shelter for their fellow tribe members, but they will have no mercy for the Arabs and Pakistanis, since they brought on all of these disasters for nothing. They were there to wage war on the world, and in the process ruined the reputation of Afghanistan and brought the country nothing but political, economic and military woe."
Perhaps the most important military developments are those taking place in the vicinity of Kandahar and the south-western provinces and in Kunduz, the last northern Afghan stronghold of Taliban resistance. Although various news agencies have reported the fall of Kandahar, a spokesman for Mullah Omar has denied that the city was taken, maintaining that the Taliban still hold this Pashtun stronghold and charging that reports of its loss are Western propaganda.
It is clear that US air forces have continued carpet bombing Taliban front lines while intensifying a psychological campaign intended to drive a wedge between the Afghan supporters of the Taliban and the Arab and Pakistani supporters of Bin Laden. These strategies have contributed to inflicting major losses upon Al- Qa'eda, notably the death of its chief military strategist, Mohamed Atef. There have also been several reports of discord between Pashtun tribal leaders and Taliban leaders, sometimes escalating to open rebellion such as that led by Pashtun commander Hamid Karzai. Psychological warfare has also focused on inciting Afghans against the so-called Afghan Arabs. Perhaps the most damaging report was the announcement that Bin Laden's guards killed 150 Taliban fighters who tried to surrender to the opposition. In addition to the many broadcasts aimed at encouraging Afghans to defect from the Taliban and surrender Bin Laden, the US has offered an additional incentive in the form of a $25 million reward for information leading to the arrest or assassination of Bin Laden and Ayman El-Zawahri.
It is undoubtedly hoped that this bounty will entice Al-Qa'eda members to turn against their leaders as well. As for the prospects of capturing Bin Laden and his lieutenants, the latest developments in the media war have it that the Saudi dissident has been confined to an area 78 kilometres square that is located east of Kandahar. But reports have also circulated that Bin Laden may try to escape, and perhaps has already succeeded in fleeing Afghanistan. Refuges available to him are few, because any country suspected of harbouring Al-Qa'eda's leader would expect to pay a heavy price. Rumoured havens include Iraq, Somalia and Kashmir, currently disputed by India and Pakistan.
The machinery of Western propaganda has certainly gained the upper hand with the bombing of Al-Jazeera broadcasting station in Kabul shortly following the entrance of Northern Alliance forces into the capital. There is little doubt that the bombing of the Al-Jazeera station was deliberate. The director of that station announced that he had sent a map to the US delineating the location of the bureau to prevent its accidental bombing. That it was bombed anyway is reminiscent of the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, which Washington claimed was an accident. We can now expect an even broader gap between available news and realities on the ground in Pakistan, while the people of Afghanistan face the almost certain prospect of protracted civil war.
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See:
Forcing the issues :
War pages
War 15 - 21 November 2001
War 8 - 14 November 2001
War 1 - 7 November 2001
War 25 - 31 October 2001
War 18 - 24 October 2001
War 11 - 17 October 2001
Fall-out 4 - 10 October 2001
Fall-out 27 Sep. - 3 Oct. 2001
US Tragedy: The fall-out 20 - 26 September 2001
US Attacked 13 - 19 September 2001
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