Back to square one

With the Taliban losing its control over most Afghan cities, civil war is likely to sweep the country, Absar Alam writes from Islamabad
The arrival of an undisclosed number of Russian commandos at Bagram Airbase, near Kabul, on Monday indicates the entry of a new player in the game -- one that has a distinctly pro- Northern Alliance stance -- at a time when the opposition is being criticised by the US-led coalition for capturing Kabul.
Britain has already sent 100 troops to restore law and order and forestall the threat of civil war and the killing of civilians. Security concerns, however, have reached new heights with the wanton daylight killing of five journalists by unknown armed bandits on Monday in Sirobi, near Jalalabad. These journalists were travelling to Kabul from Jalalabad without any security escort. Near Sirobi, they were stopped by armed men, taken out of their cars and executed. The motive, apparently, was money.
Law and order, it seems, has broken down as Afghanistan reverts to a grid of numerous fiefdoms following the Taliban's departure from most Afghan cities and provinces. In northern Afghanistan, the NA has swept through Mazar-i Sharif, Samangan, Baghlan, Pul-i Charkhi, Bagram, Herat, Bamiyan, Takhar and Shindad provinces -- and now Kabul.
In the wake of the Taliban's retreat, former warlords have returned to claim the territories. The city of Kabul and its surrounding areas are under the control of Tajik leader Burhanuddin Rabbani, the former president of Afghanistan. Until 1996 Rabbani was the top man in Afghanistan, but his refusal to accept a power- sharing deal launched a political crisis that ultimately led to his ouster from Kabul by the Taliban. In Mazar-i Sharif, Uzbek commander General Abdurrashid Dostum is running his own administration. Bamiyan is under the command of Shi'a Hazara tribe. Herat is under the command of popular leader Ismail Khan.
The situation in the remaining provinces is still unclear as 3,000 Taliban troops were still fighting the Northern Alliance in Konduz province this week. Surrounded by all sides, these Taliban troops -- out of whom at least 2,000 are believed to be Arab and Pakistani nationals -- are trying to secure a negotiated surrender through the United Nations. The NA, however, is unwilling to pardon "foreigners" among the Taliban. Although they have agreed to take Afghan Taliban as prisoners of war, the NA commanders want to eliminate all non-Afghan Taliban fighters.
The southern city of Kandahar, the spiritual and military Pashtun heartland where the Taliban has strong support, is still under the control of the Taliban regime. In the bordering Pakistani city of Quetta, Afghan Pashtun elders met this week to extract a negotiated handing over of power from Taliban Pashtuns to non-Taliban Pashtuns. Non-Taliban Pashtuns have issued an ultimatum to the Taliban to transfer power or face war. Taliban ambassador to Pakistan Mullah Abdul-Salam Za'if, on his arrival in Quetta from Kandahar yesterday, vowed that the Taliban will defend Kandahar to the death.
Whatever the result, southern Afghanistan will continue to be ruled by Pashtun commanders. Haji Abdul-Qadir, a Pashtun commander and brother of the US-backed assassinated commander Abdul-Haq, has taken over Jalalabad. Qadir led a caravan of hundreds of vehicles, along with several dozen journalists, from the Pakistani city of Peshawar to Jalalabad last week when he captured the Pashtun-dominated city. His fellow tribesmen have already announced that they accept him as governor of the province.
The province of Nangarhar in north-eastern Afghanistan has fallen to Maulvi Younas Khalis, another Pashtun commander known from the days of fighting the Russians in the '80s. Although different commanders and ethnic warlords have divided Afghanistan's various parts among themselves, their control ends a few miles outside their domain. The situation has reverted back to 1996, when civil war raged through Afghanistan.
In the grip of these Afghan warlords, who fought each other for power and money, the country was at the mercy of armed groups that raped and plundered at will. "We will not return to Afghanistan unless these thugs that are ruling over my motherland [are gone]," said Razia, an Afghan refugee residing in a poor district of the Pakistani city Rawalpindi. An ethnic Tajik, Razia lost her two brothers in the fight against the Russian occupation and says she does not want forces from the Northern Alliance, the Taliban or former prime minister and notorious Pashtun warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar ruling Afghanistan. "Only King Zahir Shah can bring peace to my country," Razia, a mother of three boys, said.
The obtaining military situation on the ground notwithstanding, the key player in the new great game in Afghanistan is still the United States, who is currently still busy tracking down Al- Qa'eda leader Osama Bin Laden, Taliban founder Mullah Mohamed Omar and other Al- Qa'eda members inside Afghanistan.
But diplomatic sources maintain that the Allies anticipated the ongoing warlordism. "This is nothing unexpected. There is a political vacuum and a huge amount of arms have been pumped into Afghanistan recently. Also, a number of ex- commanders have been waiting in the wings for the last five years. So this amount of jockeying for power was expected. However, if the international efforts to put in place an interim government are slow, then things will become messy," said a Western diplomat.
It is expected that once US is done with Bin Laden, or Kandahar falls, the efforts to install a broad-based, multi-ethnic government in Afghanistan will gain momentum.
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See:
Forcing the issues :
War pages
War 15 - 21 November 2001
War 8 - 14 November 2001
War 1 - 7 November 2001
War 25 - 31 October 2001
War 18 - 24 October 2001
War 11 - 17 October 2001
Fall-out 4 - 10 October 2001
Fall-out 27 Sep. - 3 Oct. 2001
US Tragedy: The fall-out 20 - 26 September 2001
US Attacked 13 - 19 September 2001
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