The political chasm

Diplomatic efforts to set up a post-Taliban government in Afghanistan lag far behind America's military operation, writes Absar Alam from Islamabad
"Only after terrorists are gone can there be a broad-based government in Afghanistan," is how US Secretary of State Colin Powell concluded his visit to the subcontinent. And with this statement, at least the outline of America's operational plan for Afghanistan became clear. US attacks are going to continue.
With tens of civilians killed by the US attacks, according to the information reaching Pakistan so far, all civilian and military airports destroyed, and at least one village pounded into the ground by the massive US bombardment, continuing action means more destruction.
From a campaign focused on taking out only military targets and installations of the Taliban, the US missile attacks and bombardment have started hitting civilian targets. Earlier in the week, US bombers totally devastated Kadam, a small village near Jalalabad. The US attacks also destroyed two warehouses of the International Committee of the Red Cross and a United Nations de- mining office in Kabul and Kandahar.
As the bombardment intensifies, so do public protests against the US action, particularly in Islamic countries. And the political deals have not, so far, kept pace with the military action.
Despite intensive consultations between Islamabad and Washington, no viable political set-up has been agreed upon for the future of Afghanistan. And Pakistan has made clear its reservations about any political dispensation for Kabul headed by the Northern Alliance.
Zaher Shah's envoy, in Islamabad this week for discussions, agreed with Pakistani officials that long-term peace was only possible with the establishment of an interim set-up.
Maulvi Abdul-Wakil Mutawakkil, the Afghan Foreign Minister, was also in Islamabad. Conflicting reports appeared in the press. some suggesting he had defected to the anti- Taliban forces, others that he was carrying some peace offer from the Taliban regime.
Reports persist that plans are being laid down to send ground troops inside Afghanistan and security has been beefed up around Pakistani airbases reportedly handed over to the US. These airbases will be used to provide logistical support, including refuelling gunship helicopters taking off from US aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea, and for medical and recovery facilities.
The attack by an AC-130 aircraft on Kandahar on Tuesday appears to be the first step towards the launching of ground troops for specific operations against Al-Qaeda and its military assets. The AC-130 is a turbo-prop ground attack plane and is usually used to provide support to small-unit ground forces.
The flight of the low-flying AC- 130 over Kandahar, defence analysts believe, was intended to test the Taliban's air defence machinery and showed US confidence in the success of its earlier attacks to destroy Afghanistan's air defence system. There are fears, however, that the Taliban still have a number of stinger missile batteries which might pose a serious threat to US gunship helicopters and transport planes carrying the Special Forces.
Senior government officials in Pakistan believe that a ground attack is not far away. Large numbers of religious leaders have been put under house-arrest this week to check any violent protest demonstrations following the US ground assault.
"The war may intensify as soon as Powell leaves the region," a defence official said, requesting anonymity. Soon after the visit of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the US-led coalition launched the air strikes against Afghanistan.
Sharing a 2,200-kilometre porous border with Afghanistan, with two of its provincial capitals -- Quetta and Peshawar -- situated very near the Afghan border, and already housing more than 2.5 million Afghan refugees, Pakistan is experiencing some of the worst impacts of being in America's war on terrorism.
Islamabad has cracked down hard on protests and tried to stem growing demonstrations by arresting the leaders of the hard-line religio- political parties, but the protests have continued. The latest call for rallies came on the day Powell arrived in Pakistan.
In case of a ground attack, the situation facing the Pervez Musharraf administration will become even more difficult. Nor is its position helped by India's stepping up of its military presence along the border with Pakistan in the disputed Kashmir Valley.
Political analysts believe that at this critical juncture Musharraf must take into confidence all the major political parties, so that the small, but increasingly noisy, religious groups can be sidelined.
What political alignment eventually gets sanctioned by Washington, and what framework for a broad-based government in Afghanistan, will become clear only after the US is sure that it has achieved its military objectives. But how many days or weeks that will take no one knows.
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