When Vajpayee and Musharraf went to the Almaty summit this week, the situation was still tense between India and Pakistan, reports Iffat Malik from Islamabad Click to view caption June is a month when foreign nationals living in the Indian Subcontinent traditionally head for home: temperatures that soar above 40 degrees Celsius and frequent power cuts do not make summer a pleasant time. This year the seasonal exodus started earlier, and for a different reason. The fear of a war that could lead to nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan is growing by the day. The standoff that has seen both sides deploy a total of one million troops since December shows no sign of ending. New Delhi continues to insist that Islamabad is supporting terrorist groups operating in Indian Kashmir, crossing the Line of Control (LOC) from Pakistani Kashmir. Islamabad insists that there is no activity across the LOC and that Indian Kashmiris are legitimately fighting for their freedom. So far no one has found a way of reconciling these divergent positions, and averting the threat of war. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw paid a three-day visit to the region last week. He was reported to have transmitted a secret offer from Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to close all militant training camps in Azad (Pakistani- controlled) Kashmir. The Indians apparently received that offer with scepticism. Pakistan has, of course, denied that such an offer was ever made -- a reflection of the domestic pressure on the Musharraf government not to give in to Indian demands. On 27 May President Musharraf went on national television to address his people and the watching international community. There had been expectations that he would announce further measures against militants. But rather than take that defensive approach, Musharraf went on the offensive. He claimed that nothing was happening across the LOC and pledged Pakistan's continued support of the Kashmiri freedom struggle -- though he did say that Pakistan would never be a base for terrorists. His message to the Indians was simple: "We do not want war. But if war is thrust upon us, we will respond with full might and give a befitting reply." The Pakistani President appeared to be marking out his red lines: Pakistan had done all it could to meet Indian demands, it could do no more. Significantly, President Musharraf referred to India in his address as "the enemy". He also urged the international community to take note of the communal violence in India, especially that recently perpetrated by Hindus against Muslims in the state of Gujerat, where unofficial estimates put the death toll at above 2,000. Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh described the speech as "dangerous and disappointing". His deputy, Omar Abdullah, elaborated: "I had believed there were still a lot of diplomatic options available to us. But today he [Musharraf] has closed down a lot of that space." Which is why the fear of a catastrophic South Asian war is far greater now than it ever was. Jack Straw's failed mission and his departing warning that there could be nuclear war in the region, coupled with the Musharraf speech, have panicked the international community and triggered the exodus from both India and Pakistan. Thanks to the Afghan war and fear of Al- Qa'eda, the presence of foreign nationals in Pakistan has already been considerably reduced. The additional threat of war has caused the French, German, Portuguese and other embassies to follow the US, Canadian and British example and order all non-essential diplomatic staff and families out of the country. Similar instructions were given to staff in India. Nationals of all those countries, as well as Australia and New Zealand, have been advised not to travel to India or Pakistan, and if already there, to leave. This week, the United Nations ordered all its non-essential staff and families to leave India and Pakistan. This has perhaps been the clearest sign yet of how imminent the international community perceives war to be. The UN's exodus has added to the tangible sense in the subcontinent of an arena being emptied of all superfluous figures, so that the combatants can fight. There is also a palpable feeling that both countries -- or at least both governments -- are mentally prepared for war. Their thinking appears focused more on the practicalities and the course of war than on finding ways to avert it. The international community, however, is not so sanguine. Efforts are continuing to find a diplomatic solution to the stand-off. President George W Bush sent US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to the region hard on the heels of Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. There is reason to believe (or hope) that war is not inevitable. President Musharraf flew to Tajikistan and on to Almaty in Kazakhstan earlier this week. Prime Minister Vajpayee also travelled to Almaty. Both leaders attended the 16-country Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in South Asia. It would have been hard to think of a more appropriate time for such a conference. Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged to try and bring Musharraf and Vajpayee together for bilateral talks. Actually, Putin only has to win over the Indians, who have so far ruled out any such meeting. Musharraf has already said he would be willing to talk. Recent comments by US Secretary of State Colin Powell have also given rise to optimism. He said the US had evidence that infiltration of the LOC had decreased. Should the Indians accept this "independent" corroboration of President Musharraf's claims that nothing is happening at the LOC, they might call off their war plans. Responding to the mass exodus of foreigners from his country, Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes has suggested war is not imminent: "The troops have been in an eyeball-to- eyeball situation for the last six months, so I don't think one needs to worry just now as to what is likely to happen." In a recent interview with CNN, President Musharraf ruled out what everyone fears most -- nuclear conflict. "I don't think either side is that irresponsible to go to that limit. I would even go to the extent of saying one shouldn't even be discussing these things, because any sane individual cannot even think of going into this unconventional war." The people of South Asia and the rest of the international community are praying he is right but afraid he could be wrong. Related stories: Waiting for war 30 May - 5 June 2002 Clouds over the subcontinent 23 -29 May 2002 Chaos in Karachi 16 - 22 May 2002 Good cop, bad cop 17 - 23 January 2002 The dynamics of escalation 27 Dec. 2001 - 2 Jan. 2002 Atomic gains, nuclear losses 18 - 24 June 1998
