After a slow start, a flurry of Western diplomatic activity appears to have decreased the chances that war erupts between India and Pakistan, reports Iffat Malik from Islamabad International efforts to avert war in southeast Asia continued last week even as the number of countries urging their nationals to leave India and Pakistan increased. The contradictory developments reflected the continuing uncertainty in the region which, while viewing war as not inevitable, does not exclude the possibility. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin spearheaded the international effort at a regional conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan. The leaders of 16 countries attended the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in South Asia. They included President Musharraf of Pakistan and India's Prime Minister Vajpayee. The Russian leader held separate meetings with Musharraf and Vajpayee in a bid to persuade them to meet with each other. Although Musharraf was willing to talk to his Indian counterpart, Prime Minister Vajpayee stuck to his stated position of refusing to meet with the Pakistani president. President Putin's first foray into Indo-Pakistani mediation was premised on the expectation that Russia's long-standing friendship with India would overcome Prime Minister Vajpayee's reluctance to hold talks with Musharraf. India does not want to be seen as softening its line on Pakistan and it has long rejected the notion of third party mediation in Kashmir -- something it considers to be an internal matter or, at most, a bilateral issue. Putin had been aiming to go beyond de- escalation and address the root causes of the India-Pakistan dispute. Not only has he failed in achieving that highly ambitious goal, he has also been forced to stand and watch helplessly as the two countries' leaders trade verbal blows. In his address to the conference, Musharraf attacked India's policy in Kashmir: "We cannot condone for any reason the rapacious policies of certain states that forcibly occupy territories or deny freedom to peoples for decades on end, with total disdain for the decisions of the United Nations," he said in a reference to UN resolutions calling for a plebiscite in Kashmir. Vajpayee parried this charge with criticism of Pakistan's support for Kashmiri militants: "The plain and simple truth is that the killing of innocent men, women and children cannot be defended by invoking any of the alleged grievances, underlying causes or attendant circumstances." He also condemned Pakistan for not ruling out nuclear first use, describing that stance as "nuclear blackmail." Later, in a press conference, President Musharraf stated that he did not even want to discuss the use of nuclear weapons but kept the nuclear option open by adding: "The possession of nuclear weapons by any state obviously implies that they will be used in some cases." There had been high hopes that being together in Almaty would create an opening for Indian and Pakistani leaders to pull back from the brink of war. As it was, they did not even make eye contact or shake hands. Putin tried to put a positive spin on his mediation efforts: "Both the Indian and the Pakistani leader stressed that they have no intention of using force to resolve their problems." The rejection by India of Putin's invitation for more talks in Moscow was a more accurate indication that his mediatory performance was a failure. All things considered, Almaty was not a total failure. Certain comments that Vajpayee made just before leaving the Kazakh capital suggested that he could be swayed against war. The first was an offer that Pakistan and India carry out joint patrols along the Line of Control (LOC). Though hardly a practical suggestion -- given the level of hostility and mistrust between the two countries -- the offer was motivated by India's desire to regain the diplomatic initiative after Pakistan made calls for international monitoring to verify that the LOC is not infiltrated. Although Islamabad rejected the idea, there were some signs of progress in the Vajpayee statement: "Once the terrorist camps are destroyed and infiltration stops and we have proof of this, we can start taking other steps to reduce tension." The Americans have taken on a more and more active role in mediating between India and Pakistan. United States Secretary of State Colin Powell has been in regular telephone contact with both leaders. Last week US President Bush also had long telephone conversations with both. According to White House spokesman Ari Fleischer he "reiterated to President Musharraf that the US expects Pakistan to live up to the commitment Pakistan has made to end all support for terrorism" and "emphasised to Prime Minister Vajpayee the need for India to respond with de- escalatory steps". The question of verifying infiltration -- or the lack of it -- was the focus of US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's talks with Musharraf and, later, with Vajpayee. Armitage did not elaborate on what possible monitoring measures he discussed in Islamabad, but he did say, "President Musharraf has made it very clear he is looking for peace and he won't be the one to initiate a war." In New Delhi Armitage sought Indian reassurance that they would de-escalate should infiltration be brought to an end. The Americans and the Indians themselves have already conceded that movement across the LOC dividing Indian-administered Kashmir from Pakistani-run Kashmir is well down. But the Indians are looking for a permanent close-down of the LOC and could keep their forces deployed until they are sure they have achieved it. Armitage did not admit this but he must also have pressed the Indians to hold talks with Musharraf once infiltration across the LOC verifiably stops. The Americans are well aware of the domestic pressures on President Musharraf -- he has to have something to show to his people in exchange for Pakistan cutting off practical support to the Kashmiri militants. Talks on the Kashmiri dispute would be an acceptable return but, without such a dividend, Musharraf will be perceived as simply having capitulated to Indian demands. The Indians, however, are very unlikely to agree to talks on Kashmir anytime soon. With little prospect of either troop withdrawal or talks the likelihood of war remains. Accordingly, the US and Britain upgraded a warning to all their nationals in India and Pakistan. Whereas before they had been advised to consider leaving the region, last week they were instructed to do so at once. US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld arrives in the region this week to continue diplomatic efforts to talk the two sides down. The international community's strategy appears to be to keep a string of high profile visitors -- EU High Commissioner Chris Patten, British Foreign Minister Jack Straw, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, among others -- visiting the Indian and Pakistani capitals, thus keeping the two sides engaged in talks. Donald Rumsfeld is rumoured to be carrying proposals for a joint US-UK force to patrol the LOC by helicopter. The snag is that whereas Pakistan would probably welcome such a force, India would be sure to be against it. Until some way can be found to monitor the LOC that is acceptable to both India and Pakistan, tension in the region will remain high. The danger is that while a solution is being found, another terrorist attack in Indian Kashmir will make that effort redundant and push the two countries over the brink into open war.
