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Uncertain hope for Pakistan
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 07 - 11 - 2002

After three years of military dictatorship, Pakistan is taking steps to reverse its international pariah status, reports Iffat Malik from Islamabad
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Pakistan has been making slow but steady progress in its attempts to rehabilitate its marred international image. The country's cooperation in the United States-led military campaign in Afghanistan marked an important first step to that end. Last month's national and provincial elections should have completed the process of Pakistan's full rehabilitation and reintegration into the international community.
But the recent Commonwealth decision to uphold Pakistan's suspension from the association demonstrates that elections are insufficient on their own.
Pakistan's suspension from the Commonwealth came after a 1999 military coup that ousted the country's then democratically elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif -- and brought General Pervez Musharraf to power. The lifting of the suspension was conditional on restoration of democratic rule in Pakistan. Its recent reaffirmation -- despite elections for a civilian government in October -- suggests that the Commonwealth has reservations about the democratic nature of the whole exercise.
The report of a Commonwealth Observer Group that monitored last month's elections concludes that voting on polling day was generally free and fair. The report criticises events leading up to the elections, claiming that the government had adversely influenced the electoral process by imposing restrictions on political activity and banning some leaders from running.
The Commonwealth ministers meeting in London last week expressed concerns about the prolongation of military rule in Pakistan.
"There has been an election, but in the final analysis, there is no government in place," says Mompati Merafhe, chairman of the Commonwealth Observer Group. "And we don't know how much of the executive powers currently held by the president are going to be transferred to the elected members of the parliament."
President Musharraf may be accused of consolidating all power in his own hands, but responsibility for not forming a government rests with the politicians. The elections did not yield a clear winner and all attempts at forming a coalition government have so far failed. Three main parties did well: the pro-military Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) which won 122 seats, Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) with 81 seats and the Islamist alliance Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) which won 59 seats in the 342-member National Assembly. Each of the three parties has nominated Prime Ministerial candidates, but none can form a government alone. The PPP and MMA both reject the constitutional amendments introduced by President Musharraf -- thereby ruling out a coalition with the PML-Q. Neither the PPP nor the MMA is prepared to be the junior partner in a joint government -- thereby ruling out an alliance between them. The result is a stalemate.
President Musharraf finally lost patience on Saturday and summoned the first session of the National Assembly to meet on Friday 8 November. The inaugural session will be devoted to oath-taking by the new members of the National Assembly and the election of the Speaker and Deputy Speaker. The members will then have to address the difficult question of electing a prime minister. The PML-Q is striving to carve up a majority with support from minor parties and independent candidates. If this succeeds, the PML-Q nominee Zafarullah Jamali would become prime minister -- with both the PPP and MMA in opposition. If the attempt fails, the country is poised for a prolonged political wrangling.
The Commonwealth decision to uphold Pakistan's suspension had a lot to do with lack of democracy in the country but was also due to -- in no small measure -- pressure from hawkish Australia and India -- both of which vehemently opposed the reinstatement of Pakistan's membership. Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha claimed that recent the elections in Pakistan were evidence that President Musharraf was merely consolidating his hold on power, rather than moving from "dictatorship to democracy".
Despite India's hard-line attitude on Pakistan's return to the Commonwealth, relations between the two South Asian neighbours have shown signs of improvement. Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes announced in October that India had begun withdrawing its forces from the border between the two countries. He added that he would like that all troops be home in time for the Hindu festival of Diwali scheduled for 4 November.
Pakistan has in turn began withdrawing its troops. The forces of the two sides have been facing each other in a state of high alert for the past ten months. The decision to redeploy after almost a year of an intense stand-off, brings a sigh of relief to soldiers' families and to the international community.
India's decision to pull back its troops had been widely expected after the State Assembly elections in Indian Kashmir. The new Chief Minister Mufti Muhammad Saeed was sworn into office on Saturday. Saeed heads the pro-autonomy-within-India People's Democratic Party. He has pledged to address the grievances of the Kashmiri people, notably with regard to human rights abuses by the Indian security forces, political freedom and economic development. If he keeps his promise, he could put to an end the 13-year armed separatist movement that has blighted Kashmir. But his ability to do so will depend on cooperation from Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in New Delhi.
Vajpayee has so far not given any clear indication of Indian policy on Kashmir. What is clear, though, is that he has no intention of engaging dialogue with Pakistan to resolve the two countries' long-standing dispute over Kashmir. Vajpayee and other senior members of his government were reiterating last week accusations that Pakistan is sponsoring terrorism in Kashmir. "Today nations of the world are putting pressure that we hold talks [with Pakistan]. But we want to say that, for holding such discussions, an atmosphere of trust should be created first. You should have faith in the other party." India clearly does not have such faith in Musharraf.


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