US special envoy William Burns is in the region armed with a "roadmap" that supposedly leads to peace. It is likely to go nowhere, writes Graham Usher from Jerusalem US special envoy William Burns arrived in Israel and the occupied territories this week in pretty bleak circumstances, even by the dismal standards set by past American "special envoys". Palestinians are still reeling from a series of Israeli military offensives that have left 51 of their people dead in the last two weeks, 15 of them children. Gaza has borne the lion's share of these assaults, with the latest being a tank and bulldozer invasion into Rafah on Wednesday morning. Twenty-three Palestinians were wounded in the thrust, and three buildings destroyed, including the home of a "suicide bomber". Israelis too are bloodied from an Islamic Jihad bus bombing that killed 16 and wounded 60 in northern Israel on Monday, the highest death toll from an attack inside Israel since June. In what so far has been an unusually "restrained" response, the army tightened its grip on the West Bank, shelved plans for a partial pullback from Hebron and demolished homes in Nablus, Salem and Hebron. Few Palestinians believe these will be the only reprisals. But they suspect greater punishments will come once Burns is out of the country. Away from the attrition waged "in the field", there is the attrition that will be joined over the meaning and substance of the "roadmap" Burns has brought with him to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict within the optimistic timeline of three years. Based on George Bush's "vision" of a Palestinian state -- and with inputs from the European Union, UN and Russia -- the road is mapped to reach a "provisional" Palestinian state in 2003 and a final status agreement by 2005. According to accounts published in the Israeli press, "phase A" will require the Palestinian Authority calling for an end to the "armed Intifada", reorganising their police forces into a unitary command and resuming "security cooperation" with Israel. Israel is expected to dismantle "illegal" settlement outposts and end its punitive actions in Palestinian areas, including the invasions, house demolitions and land devastation. One commentator likened the roadmap to "Oslo minus Arafat". It will probably suffer the same fate as both. Ariel Sharon has already said he won't countenance any "concession" on Israel's part unless it is "conditioned on determined [Palestinian] action against terror and incitement". The Palestinians say there can be no "action" without an Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian cities and villages, and that no political process is viable without an immediate and unconditional freeze on Israel's settlement construction. It will be interesting to see how Burns squares the circle of those two positions. The safest bet is that he won't even try. Israel's Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has said Israel is unlikely to make substantive comments on the plan until December -- and six weeks is an age in the West Bank and Gaza. Nor is it clear how the roadmap will square with the "reforms" Yasser Arafat is currently making to his government. In a clear ruse to kick the Palestinian leader out of power --if not yet out of the West Bank -- the plan wants the PA to appoint a prime minister and parliamentary elections only to be held sometime next year. Arafat wants presidential elections to strengthen his legitimacy in the eyes of the world and has ruled that no prime minister will be nominated "until after the establishment of a Palestinian state". He is also putting in place a cabinet that will back him on both demands. Leaked in the Palestinian press on Wednesday -- and if in any way accurate -- the PA's new cabinet marks a colossal victory for Fatah's "old guard" in its long tussle with its young, whose parliamentary led revolt in September brought about the collapse of Arafat's original government. Save for the replacement of Abdul-Razek Yahyia by veteran Fatah leader Hani Al-Hassan at the Interior Ministry -- and the reported removal of Jamil Tarifi at Civil Affairs -- the new 19-member government makes no accommodation to the demands of the parliamentarians. In the past, Fatah deputies have vowed they will vote no confidence again if ministerial changes are not "commensurate" with the reforms required. Arafat will be meeting them over the next few days to persuade them that "commensurateness" has been reached. He intends formally to present the cabinet to the parliament next week, said Speaker Ahmed Qrei on Tuesday. Few Palestinians in any case are now taking the "reform process" seriously. They know that in the garrison realities of the occupied territories no elections of any stripe will occur in January, and probably not for a long time thereafter. So does Israel, so do the Americans and so, actually, do the other members of the Quartet. All are aware that Burn's roadmap is a train parked at a station. It won't move until the question of Iraq is settled. And by then both the road to peace and the map of the region may be changed beyond all recognition. Related stories: Killing cycles Selling snakeoil
