Israel is not interested in Palestinian reforms. It wants civil war, writes Graham Usher from Jerusalem Two months after it was officially anointed, the roadmap "toward peace" is starting to slouch, if not toward Jerusalem, then at least out of Gaza and Bethlehem. Over the next few days the Palestinian Authority and Israel are expected to reach an agreement under which the Israeli army will withdraw from those parts of the two Palestinian-controlled territories it re- conquered during the Intifada. Palestinian government officials are also expressing cautious hope that a cease- fire will soon be announced by the Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Both moves are vital to Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas's attempts to convince the factions to trade the violence of the armed Intifada for the American and international re-engagement proffered by the roadmap. Both he and his new security minister, Mohamed Dahlan, have been loath to assume their security responsibilities ahead of an Israeli withdrawal and a Palestinian cease- fire. They understand that the PA has neither the power nor the popular legitimacy to take on the Palestinian militias by force. They also seek American protection in the face of an Israeli prime minister whose every move appears intended to undermine them in the court of Palestinian public opinion. On 23 June an Israeli army undercover squad entered Hebron and shot dead Abdullah Al-Qawasmeh, a Hamas military leader Israel says was responsible for planning armed attacks in Israel and the occupied territories that left over 40 Israelis dead. The army said Al-Qawasmeh was killed resisting arrest. Palestinian witnesses said it was an extra-judicial execution, the latest in a wave of Israeli assassinations that, in the last two weeks has left 30 Palestinians dead, two-thirds of them civilian. The army then launched a sweep throughout Hebron, arresting 130 Palestinians, mostly on suspicion of having links with Hamas. Thirty more Palestinians were arrested in Nablus. Palestinian and some Israeli analysts see both the killings and the arrests as attempts by Ariel Sharon to kill a Palestinian cease-fire before it is born. Whatever truce agreement eventually emerges from the factional discussions all are aware it won't endure without an Israeli withdrawal, an end to the assassinations of Palestinian military and political leaders and the release of Palestinian prisoners. "It should be understood that the hudna [temporary cease-fire] will not be unilateral. If Israel does not accept our conditions then there will be no hudna," said Ziad Abu Amr, PA Culture Minister and Abbas's point man with the factions in Gaza. It is easy to see why, says another Palestinian analyst: "If Abu Mazen cannot deliver on ending the assassinations and releasing prisoners he will have trouble disarming the Fatah-led militias, let alone the Islamists." Israel is not interested in a reciprocal truce of this kind. It views any Palestinian cease-fire as simply a prelude to the PA's "true war against terror". And should the PA not join the "true war" Sharon has signalled that Israel will act in its stead, within the PA areas and without, roadmap or no roadmap. Is this America's reading? On 20 June US Secretary of State Colin Powell arrived in Israel and the occupied territories for the second time in as many weeks. His task was to salvage the roadmap by expediting Israeli redeployments in Gaza and Bethlehem. He is being followed later this week by National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice. Both envoys are supposed to visibly convey Washington's new re- engagement in the Israel- Palestinian conflict. But after Powell's visit Palestinians are less sure on whose side the Americans are engaging. In West Jerusalem and Jericho Powell made no mention of Israel's assassinations policy other than to query whether recent cases (like the attempted killing of Hamas political leader Abdul-Aziz Al-Rantisi in Gaza on 10 June) were actually "ticking bombs" on route to detonation. He directed his ire instead at Hamas, castigating the movement as "an enemy of peace" and refusing to draw a line between its political, social and military wings in a rehearsal of the Israeli line that sooner or later the PA would disarm its militia by force. "We really have to get to the point... where the only ones with guns and military force in any nation has to be the government," he told Abbas in Jericho on 20 June. Abbas agrees with the end but not the means. He believes the only road to de-militarisation is one where American "guarantees" restraining Israeli actions like the assassinations will enable a temporary cease-fire to become a permanent condition. The aim then will be to persuade Hamas to drop the gun and suicide bomber in favour of a large and permanent stake in any future Palestinian government. Most Palestinian analysts believe that an inclusive reform process of this kind is now the only way to domesticate an Islamist movement that is no longer simply an opposition but a parallel political, social and military authority. Israel is not interested in Palestinian reforms; it wants civil war. It is unclear what America wants. But if it follows Sharon it will not have the roadmap.
