With a unanimous vote at the Security Council threatening "serious consequences" if Baghdad does not comply with new weapons inspections, the UN has given the Bush administration international cover to attack Iraq, writes Salah Hemeid Click to view caption Just a day after the UN Security Council unanimously voted to disarm Iraq, President George W Bush reportedly approved a Pentagon plan to invade Iraq and implement a strategy of regime change in Baghdad should new arms inspections fail. The new resolution sets a 30-day deadline for Iraq to declare all of its weapons programmes and open up every potential weapons facility for inspection. It also gives the inspectors the right to interview Iraqi scientists outside the country without official Iraqi representation. In addition, Resolution 1441 declares that Iraq shall not act in a threatening or hostile manner toward any representative of the United Nations or any member state taking action to uphold any council resolution. It also prohibits any Iraqi resistance to US bombings or missile attacks in the "no-fly zones" that have been unilaterally declared and enforced by Washington and London in northern and southern Iraq. Although the new resolution imposes requirements that Iraq will find difficult to meet, Baghdad has reluctantly welcomed the document, probably counting on assurances made by some Security Council members that nothing in the resolution could be used as an excuse to wage war on Iraq, and does not constitute automatic military action in case of a dispute with the inspectors. However, will Iraq's acceptance and compliance help it to avert a war that is widely seen as inevitable? Observers believe the tough terms set by the resolution underscores Washington's desire to use the weapons inspections issue as a pretext for war. Speaking in the White House Rose Garden shortly after the Council passed the resolution, Bush made it clear that the US sees the resolution as a legitimisation of its war plans. He left no doubt that his administration will seize on any alleged "non-compliance" as a pretext for full-scale war. "With the passage of this resolution, the world must not lapse into unproductive debates over whether specific instances of Iraqi non- compliance are serious. Any Iraqi non- compliance is serious," he said. On Saturday, The New York Times disclosed that Bush has endorsed a war plan, envisaging a force of some 200,000 to 250,000 troops invading Iraq. Pentagon planners had earlier considered an approach that would have used 100,000 or even fewer troops, but they settled on the much larger force favoured by General Tommy Franks, commander-in-chief of the US's Central Command. The New York Times report said Pentagon officials are still working on some details of the war plan, but the basic approach is to begin with an air campaign, then quickly seize bases in northern, western and southern Iraq from which US and allied forces could operate. A key early objective would be to isolate the Iraqi leadership in Baghdad in the hope that this would cause a rapid collapse of Saddam's government. A major strategic aim of the war would be to minimise damage to civilian infrastructure, such as water and electricity supplies, and oil installations. The US hopes that by focusing the war on Saddam's ruling elite it can win support from, thus far reluctant, Iraqi commanders of regular army units and avoid an anti-US backlash. This news comes amid reports that the Pentagon is already moving forces into position to ensure that it will be capable of quickly launching strikes on Iraq, should Bush decide on war. The US Navy already has two aircraft carriers within striking range of Iraq and two more are scheduled to arrive in the area next month. The US Air Force, meanwhile, is preparing to deploy B2 stealth bombers to the central Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, where they could operate from special hangars now under construction. Other Air Force warplanes are in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and elsewhere in the Gulf. In addition to thousands of Air Force and Navy personnel active in the Gulf region, the Army and Marine Corps already have thousands of ground troops in the area. Meanwhile, Newsweek revealed that the Bush administration is also finalising plans for a post-Saddam Iraq. The plans set aside hopes for early democracy in Iraq, calling instead for a US-led occupation force lasting several years and a carefully selected representative government with delegates from major Iraqi ethnic and religious groups. Quoting senior administration officials, Newsweek said the plan calls for a "pluralist system, not democratic in a literal sense." Bush has not, however, ordered the Pentagon to carry out the invasion plan. He might wait to see whether Iraq abides by the terms of the UN resolution. If arms inspections go forward without interference, a decision to go to war could be difficult to make. However, any non-compliance by Saddam would give the green light to America's hawks to use the military. Related stories: Reparing the damage A lesser evil Clear and present danger Choices of a lifetime
