Pakistan's new government is facing serious teething problems, reports Iffat Malik from Islamabad It has not been a good week for the new government of Mir Zafarullah Jamali. On the international front, renewed militancy in Indian Kashmir has sparked off a spat with New Delhi while an ongoing controversy over Pakistan's supply of nuclear technology to North Korea has threatened relations with Washington. Domestically, the race by opposing parties to form provincial governments could endanger Jamali's slim majority in the centre. On Sunday night militants forced their way into a Hindu temple, near Jammu, in Indian Kashmir. A gun battle followed between militants holed up inside the Raghunath Temple and security forces. By the time it ended, 15 people, including three militants, had been killed. The attack was the third to take place in the state in as many days. On Saturday, 12 people, including six soldiers, were killed when a landmine exploded under a bus. On Friday, two men on a suicide mission attacked a barracks in Srinagar, killing four soldiers. This increase in militancy seems to be designed to undermine the position of Indian Kashmir's new chief minister, Mufti Saeed. In a brief statement published in Kashmir's main newspaper, Greater Kashmir, two Islamist militant groups, Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen and Harkat-e-Jihad Islami, claimed responsibility for the attacks and described them as "a response to his [Saeed's] assertion that militancy was on its last legs". Saeed became chief minister after his People's Democratic Party did unexpectedly well in October's elections for the state assembly. His party differs from both the pro-India National Conference, that was ousted from power, and the pro-secession militants: the PDP opposes breaking away from India but demands greater regional autonomy for Kashmir. Not surprisingly, it attracts condemnation from militants and New Delhi alike. Mufti Saeed has so far opted for a "soft line" approach to combating the 13-year secessionist movement in the Valley. Last month, his government released 26 former militants from jail. The opposition BJP (which forms the government in New Delhi) was quick to pin blame for the recent heightened militancy on Saeed: "This is a result of giving a free hand to terrorists and the policies of appeasement of Chief Minister Mufti Muhammed Saeed's government." It is difficult to see how long -- given the pressure from militants on the one hand and the BJP on the other -- Saeed will be able to maintain his reconciliatory strategy. While the BJP opposition in Kashmir blamed Mufti Saeed, the BJP government in New Delhi put the blame squarely on Pakistan. Deputy prime minister, LK Advani, linked the attacks to the release last week by the Pakistan authorities of Hafiz Saeed, leader of the militant group Lashkar-e-Toiba. Saeed was arrested as part of President Musharraf's drive to wipe out militancy in the country. An Interior Ministry spokesman said the government had sought to keep Hafiz Saeed in custody, but was overruled by the Lahore High Court. At the same time Islamabad strongly refuted allegations of any Pakistani involvement in the Kashmir attacks. The new Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri said, "Any attack in any part of India is blamed on us. But unfortunately there are things beyond our control." Khurshid Kasuri took office urging India to engage in dialogue with Pakistan. One of New Delhi's long-standing objections to holding talks with the Musharraf regime was its undemocratic nature. There had been hopes that once a democratically elected civilian government took power in Islamabad, India would be more willing to come to the negotiating table. An excellent opportunity would be on the sidelines of the forthcoming South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) summit in Islamabad. India, however, has not committed to attending the summit and has already ruled out discussion of bilateral issues, even if it does attend. Thus, the prospects for a normalisation of relations between India and Pakistan appear as remote as they were under Musharraf. The timing of this latest spat with India could not have been worse from Islamabad's perspective. For the past week it has engaged in strenuous diplomacy to convince the international community, in particular the Americans, that it is not supplying nuclear technology to North Korea. This was alleged as long ago as last October by the New York Times. On Sunday, the Times reported that a Pakistani aircraft arrived in North Korea in July to pick up missile components as part of an alleged barter arrangement: Pakistani nuclear technology in exchange for North Korean missiles. The Times report was taken up by other American papers, leading to speculation that Washington could re-impose sanctions on Pakistan. Renewed sanctions are the last thing Musharraf or Jamali need at this sensitive time. No surprise then that the Pakistan government was vigorous in its denials. Foreign Office spokesman, Aziz Khan, dismissed the newspaper reports as "motivated and biased stories", adding that, "since the allegations had no basis in fact" there was no question of US sanctions being applied. However, US secretary of state, Colin Powell, was not as strong in his denial: "I have nothing presently that has been reported to me that I need to be looking at." He added that should Pakistan be found to be violating the non-proliferation regime this "would have consequences". Under different circumstances, the US president might already be signing bills to clamp sanctions on Pakistan. But with Pakistan as a "front-line state" in the "war against terror", sanctions have been ruled out. Washington will probably maintain behind-the-scenes pressure on Islamabad, praying that no further embarrassing revelations appear in the New York Times. Last week, with the swearing in of a new civilian government led by Zafarullah Jamali, it appeared that Musharraf had achieved his goal of nominally transferring power to a pliant democratic set-up whilst keeping real power firmly in his own hands. The raging battles for the four provincial governments, however, has shown that the military's celebrations might be premature. In Punjab, the largest and most powerful Pakistani province, Jamali was able to form a government easily. But in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), bordering Afghanistan, the Islamist Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) did so just as easily. There, the new chief minister, Akram Khan Durrani, wasted no time in implementing the MMA's agenda to "bring an Islamic system to the province". In his first address as chief minister he announced a ban on playing video or audio cassettes on public transport. However, the Americans will be more concerned about possible obstacles being raised by the hard-line provincial government in the search for Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qa'eda. The MMA is strongly opposed to the US war against the Taliban and has criticised Musharraf for supporting it. In Baluchistan, which also borders Afghanistan, the MMA formed a coalition government with the Pakistan Muslim League- Quaid (PML-Q). In Sind, the tussle is between the PML-Q and the local Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM), which represents migrants from India and their descendants. The MQM voted for Jamali to become prime minister in the centre, but is insisting that its nominee become chief minister in Sind. The PML-Q is not prepared to relinquish the province. The situation became more tense when the MQM threatened to withdraw its support for Jamali if its demands in Sind were not met. If the two sides do not resolve their differences, Jamali could lose the vote of confidence which has to be held in two months, thereby bringing about the collapse of his national government. Pakistan looks set for an uncertain few months.
