The appointment of a new premier in Pakistan is only cosmetic, reports Iffat Idris from Islamabad For a country whose prime minister has just resigned, and whose nominated successor is just a stopgap until the real successor takes over in a few months, Pakistan looks remarkably calm. But one does not have to look hard to find the explanation for this stability in the face of political upheaval, for the prime minister is only the theoretical ruler in Pakistan. Real power rests with President Pervez Musharraf. Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali was appointed in November 2002, after his Pakistan Muslim League (PML) party won the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly. Though physically large, Jamali was a political lightweight. He had no strong political base and was heavily dependent on President Musharraf and PML parliamentary leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain for his position. Jamali was appointed prime minister because he was seen by both camps as safe: President Musharraf could rely on him not to try and curb his power, while Hussain could rely on him not to threaten his own position as party leader. To a large extent Jamali fulfilled their expectations. He once famously described Musharraf as his "boss". He made no inroads in terms of establishing an independent political following. It is ironic, then, that one reason for his downfall was his very ineffectiveness. Musharraf was reported to have been annoyed when the prime minister failed to secure the support of the provinces for a new National Finance Commission Award, determining the share of funds to be allocated to each province. Other reasons for Jamali's abrupt exit are related to Musharraf's own political ambitions. According to the terms of an agreement with Pakistani opposition groups, President Musharraf is supposed to give up his post as chief of army staff by the end of 2004. Currently he holds both that post and the presidency -- something forbidden by the constitution. Statements by Musharraf and his supporters indicate that he is looking for a way out of honouring that commitment. In either scenario -- whether he keeps or gives up his uniform -- Musharraf will need strong political backing from the National Assembly. There is a growing feeling that Musharraf felt he could not depend on Jamali to deliver the necessary political support. For his part, over the past few months Jamali issued statements making clear his expectation that Musharraf would give up his uniform. He also made a very pointed remark that none of the previous elected governments had been allowed to complete their tenure in office. Jamali expressed the hope that he would be able to complete his term. Statements like these did not endear Jamali to Musharraf. The rift with his party leaders stemmed, in part, from the rift with Musharraf. The PML is very much seen as the "king's party" in Pakistan: one that owes its existence and power to its closeness to Musharraf. The party was not, therefore, going to jeopardise that relationship by backing a prime minister that the president was keen to get rid of. The past few weeks have witnessed a series of direct blows against the prime minister from all sides. And while the papers were filled with rumours and negations that the prime minister was on his way out, his eventual resignation on Saturday came as no surprise. Jamali made the announcement at the Islamabad headquarters of his PML Party. He was flanked by Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and other senior party leaders. After telling the assembled reporters that he would be stepping down "in the interests of protecting the system and strengthening the government" he nominated Hussain as his successor. This was followed by the surprise announcement that Hussain would be a stopgap prime minister, holding the fort until Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz takes over. Aziz does not hold a National Assembly seat and must secure one before he can become prime minister. Shaukat Aziz in many ways fulfils the same criteria on which Jamali was selected: he does not have any independent political support, and he is a Musharraf loyalist who would not hinder the president's rule. Where Aziz differs from Jamali is in his technical and intellectual skills. A former international banker, Aziz is credited with turning Pakistan's economy round when it was on the brink of bankruptcy. He is seen as extremely capable and, significantly, is favoured by America and the West. Aziz's imminent appointment may have been welcomed in many quarters in Pakistan, particularly among the business community. But the move has been criticised by opposition leaders and civil rights activists. They accuse Musharraf of subverting democracy and bypassing parliament. "One thing is clear: that the establishment and the military rulers don't want politics, parliament and democracy to take strength," said opposition Muthahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) leader Liaquat Baloch. "They want all these to remain subservient to them." As if to confirm the impression that ultimate power in Pakistan rests with Musharraf alone, talks between India and Pakistan over the long-standing Kashmir dispute continued uninterrupted over recent days -- unaffected by the prime minister's departure. For the current peace process with India is very much the initiative of President Musharraf. The cabinet was also disbanded when Prime Minister Jamali resigned, but most ministers -- chosen by Musharraf rather than Jamali -- are expected to be re-appointed. Domestic and international policies -- including the offensive against Al- Qaeda in the north and the peace process with India -- are expected to continue as before. The change in Pakistan could be aptly compared to a change of front-stage actors and sets. Backstage, those calling the shots remain the same.
