Incoming Turkish Premier Tayyip Erdogan is handed a poisoned chalice as the US begins establishing military bases in Turkey despite parliament's refusal to authorise a US troop deployment, reports Gareth Jenkins in Istanbul The United States military last week began establishing nine logistical bases in Turkey, gearing up for a forthcoming military campaign against Iraq, despite the refusal of the Turkish parliament on 1 March to approve a motion allowing the deployment of American troops on Turkish soil. Last month the Turkish parliament voted to allow the US to upgrade Turkish bases and ports in Turkey to serve as a platform for the deployment of 60,000 American troops in northern Iraq. But a later motion to allow the deployment of US troops in Turkey failed to pass through parliament following a rebellion by almost 100 members of the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP). As Turkish television channels showed long convoys of US troops, vehicles and military equipment leaving Turkish ports to establish bases close to the country's border with Iraq, government officials tried to claim that the movements were part of the upgrading agreement approved by parliament in February. However, that agreement only allows the US to upgrade existing facilities, not establish new ones. "Setting up new bases has nothing to do with the first authorisation," said Onur Oymen, a leading MP from the opposition Republican People's Party (RPP). The parliamentary rebellion of 1 March stunned the JDP government and infuriated the Bush administration, which was already exasperated by Turkey's attempts to squeeze as much money as possible out of Washington in return for allowing US troops onto its soil. After months of negotiations the two sides had finally agreed on a package of grants and loans worth $30 billion, the equivalent of approximately one-sixth of Turkey's annual Gross National Product. Privately, JDP officials admit that without the money from the US it will be impossible to balance the budget this year, and the country may even be forced to default on its debts. On Monday, they received a further blow when World Bank officials lambasted the JDP's budget proposals for 2003 as being unrealistic and inequitable, adding that they would withhold further funding pending a revision. The Bush administration appears to be gambling that the Turkish government will have no choice and that, after staging a domestically popular show of defiance to the US, parliament will eventually back down and approve another motion to allow American troops on Turkish soil. The Bush administration's hopes for a reversal of the 1 March rebuff gained a boost on Sunday when the JDP won all three seats in by- elections in the southeastern town of Siirt. One of the successful candidates was JDP Chairman Tayyip Erdogan, who had been barred from entering parliament in the JDP's landslide election victory in November last year. Once he has been sworn in as an MP, Erdogan is expected to take over as prime minister from Abdullah Gul, the JDP's deputy chairman, who on Monday held what he described as his last cabinet meeting. Gul is expected to remain in the cabinet as foreign minister and deputy prime minister. However, sources close to Erdogan predict that he will introduce an extensive cabinet reshuffle, including dismissing all the ministers who failed to support the 1 March motion allowing US troops into Turkey. Erdogan's first few weeks in power are likely to provide him with the greatest test in his career to date. A former mayor of Istanbul, Erdogan has never served in parliament before, much less held a government office. His abrasive style, tendency to make evasive or contradictory statements and reliance on a small court of trusted advisors -- selected for their loyalty rather than their competence -- had already raised questions about his competence and eroded his popularity with the public even before the debacle of the parliamentary rebellion. As soon as he takes office, Erdogan will have to choose between pressuring JDP MPs with another motion allowing US troops to deploy through Turkey -- which would make him appear both dictatorial and anxious to support a war opposed by 94 per cent of the Turkish public -- and losing the $30 billion promised by the US, which could trigger a devastating economic recession. Erdogan is also likely to face a major challenge from the powerful Turkish military, who have long suspected that he is secretly planning to erode secularism and implement an Islamist agenda. Last Wednesday General Hilmi Ozkok, the chief of the Turkish General Staff (TGS), announced that parliament should approve the motion on the deployment of US troops as soon as possible. Regardless of what parliament does, sources close to the Turkish military insist that, once hostilities break out, they will reinforce the 5,000 Turkish troops already based semi- permanently in northern Iraq in order to prevent the Iraqi Kurds from seeking autonomy, or even independence. On Monday local sources on the Turkish border reported that Turkey was already moving troops and tanks into northern Iraq. Although the Iraqi Kurds are too weak to confront the Turkish military on the battlefield, they have warned that a de facto Turkish occupation of northern Iraq will trigger a guerrilla war. There is little doubt that a major Turkish military incursion would also infuriate global opinion, particularly in Europe and the Arab world, and leave Turkey, which has already exacerbated its main ally in the US, facing international isolation.
