Arafat's approval of a Palestinian prime minister marks one small step on the road to independence, writes Graham Usher in Jerusalem Yasser Arafat has again said yes to the new regional order ordained for him by the world and the majority stream within his Fatah movement. Meetings this week in Ramallah saw the PLO Central Council and Palestinian Authority parliament approve his nominee, Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen), as Palestine's prime minister. On Monday the parliament made the necessary legal amendments that, in theory, should give the position some teeth. But not enough to turn the PA from a presidential regime into a prime ministerial one, as some members of the so-called Middle East Quartet (the US, EU, UN and Russia) would prefer. Rather, the new Palestinian order is an alloy of the two, born of a compromise between the different roles of the PLO, representing Palestinians wherever they reside, and the PA, representing Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. As Chairman of the PLO Arafat will remain in overall charge of negotiations with Israel, foreign affairs and stay the "supreme commander" of the Palestinian national forces, inside and outside the occupied territories. As PA president he also has the power to hire and fire the prime minister and dissolve parliament. Abbass' jurisdiction (should he agree to the post) is restricted to governance in the PA areas, with responsibility for internal security and public order in Gaza and most of the West Bank towns and villages, once (and if) Israel decrees to withdraw from them. He will also be involved in negotiations, but as head of the PLO's negotiating team appointed by Arafat, not as PM. The establishment of a PM may be seen as victory for Abbass and the tendency he represents within the Palestinian leadership. Together with a comprehensive Palestinian cease-fire and an end to the "armed Intifada", he has long seen reform as the only means to save both the existing Palestinian regime and its historical leader. Sixty-four of the 71 Palestinian lawmakers agreed with him. "It is a good step even though it came a bit late," said Hanan Ashrawi, representing East Jerusalem. Israel and Washington reserved judgment. Acknowledging that Abbass represents the acceptable face of Palestinian nationalism (rather than the now "irrelevant" and "terrorist" Arafat), they want to see whether he has the authority and legitimacy to bring the various Palestinian militias, among them the military wings of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah, to heel. None has so far done anything to aid Abbass in the task. As the legislators were gathering in Ramallah the Israeli army was "redeploying" its forces in the northern Gaza Strip, carving out large chunks of Palestinian farmland in what is ominously becoming a south Lebanon-like "security zone". It is the latest move in Israel's "harsh war" against Gaza that, in the last month, has witnessed 16 military incursions into Palestinian controlled territories and the death of 70 Palestinians, including the assassination by Apache rockets of Hamas leader Ibrahim Al-Makadmeh. Israeli army spokesmen have made it clear nothing Abbass decides in Ramallah is likely to blunt the army's offensive. Nor, apparently, can he do anything to activate the long dormant "roadmap", the Quartet's three-year diplomatic plan for ending the violence and returning to some form of political negotiations. On Saturday, The New York Times reported that the Bush administration had again bowed to Israel's demands to defer any publication of the plan until after a war with Iraq. "Let's face it, the roadmap is dead," said one "senior European diplomat" quoted by The Times. "This administration will never do anything opposed by Sharon". Nor, save for Fatah's political leadership, is Abbass getting much succour from the other Palestinian factions. The PLO Popular and Democratic Fronts have denounced the "imposition" of a prime minister as an American and Israeli conspiracy aimed at aborting the Palestinian uprising. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have said the same, with Hamas again launching rockets from Gaza into Israel and mounting ambushes in Hebron that left two settlers and a soldier dead in as many days. In retribution the army killed three Palestinian guerrillas, demolished homes and augmented the 2,000 soldiers permanently based in Hebron to protect its 400 or so armed settlers. Faced with such realities Palestinians will hope for the best from their new prime minister but prepare for the worst. They know the fate of their cause depends not only on political reform but also on international intervention, Israeli withdrawal and Palestinian unity. None of the last three is anywhere on the horizon.
