With French diplomatic initiatives multiplying in the wake of the US-led war on Iraq and occupation of the country, Washington has declared that it will "punish" France for its anti-war role, writes David Tresilian in Paris Following weeks of speculation over the penalty France could pay for its resistance to the US-led war on Iraq, comments made by US Secretary of State Colin Powell last week seemed to indicate that France would indeed be "punished" for having resisted the American-led war. Asked during a television interview whether the US administration planned to punish France for its role in frustrating US efforts to legitimate the US-led war on Iraq and subsequent military occupation of the country, Powell answered "yes" without giving details of what form this punishment might take. Reports have suggested that the US might try to marginalise France within international organisations in which the country plays a leading role, such as the United Nations and NATO. The US might also step up economic reprisals against France, notably by restricting the role played by French companies in the post-war reconstruction of Iraq. Before the US-led invasion, France, along with Germany, Russia, China and the bulk of the international community had argued that UN weapons inspections in Iraq should continue and that war against the country was not justified. On 10 March, French President Jacques Chirac announced that France, one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council having the power of veto, would veto any Anglo-American Security Council resolution giving UN sanction to a US-led war on Iraq "whatever the circumstances, since there is no necessity to go to war to bring about the disarmament of Iraq". Reacting to the onset of war despite French efforts to prevent it, Chirac expressed his "regret at the actions being undertaken without the authorisation of the United Nations", adding that France "had made every effort to argue that the necessary disarmament of Iraq could be obtained by peaceful means". Public opinion in France was strongly supportive of the French government's stance throughout the crisis, with a poll conducted for Le Monde and the television channel TF1 and published in the French newspaper on 1 April finding that 78 per cent of the French public disapproved of the US military intervention in Iraq, 65 per cent laying responsibility for the war on the US. Following the apparent end of hostilities in Iraq, and with the installation of a US-led military occupation of the country and the disappearance of most members of the previous regime, France, like the rest of the international community, has found itself reduced to the role of onlooker, waiting for the US to announce its plans for a new Iraqi government. However, there have been signs that France has accepted the US fait accompli in Iraq, now directing diplomatic efforts at restoring relations with the US, damaged during the pre-war period, and at attempting to ensure that France, the European Union and the UN all play a role in the reconstruction of the country. Following a meeting on 11 April in St Petersburg between Chirac, Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, all of whom had strongly opposed the US-led war on Iraq, Chirac said that France wished to see a reinforced role for the UN in Iraq, since only the UN could guarantee a "stable regional order". Though notably more conciliatory in tone than the Russian president, who criticised US "colonialism" in Iraq and suggested that the US would end up finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq that it had itself imported, Chirac said that while France "rejoiced at the fall of a dictator [in Iraq] who was universally condemned", it preferred a vision of the world that "excluded unilateral action" in favour of multilateralism and of UN authority in managing international crises. Commenting on the meeting in an editorial entitled 'Troika of refusal', Le Monde said that "the arguments developed before the conflict have lost none of their validity ... no country, no matter how powerful, has the right to set itself up as the judge and jury of the world; international law must be respected; attempts to control the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction must take place within the framework of rules agreed upon by the international community." "However," the newspaper said, "the last few weeks have shown that a morally correct position does not necessarily entail a diplomatically successful one. Now is not the time to cynically accommodate the wishes of the all-powerful United States. But wisdom recommends that dialogue be re-established, that a common European position be arrived at, and that a compromise be found that does not contradict principle." Perhaps in line with this policy, at a European heads of government meeting held in the Greek capital Athens on 17 April to arrange the accession of 10, mostly formerly communist Eastern European states to membership of the European Union, Chirac said that France desired to react "with pragmatism" to the new situation in Iraq and the Middle East following the US-led war, while again insisting on the need for the UN to play a central role. "In line with its principles," France would "consider all the questions" relating to Iraq and Franco-US relations "pragmatically, dossier by dossier", Chirac said, in what was described as being a conciliatory gesture towards the US. In a joint declaration prepared by Britain, France, Spain and Germany released following the EU summit, the participants said that "the UN should play a central role" in the post-war reconstruction of Iraq, "including in the process of setting up an independent government in Iraq." Chirac's conciliatory gestures towards the United States, accompanied by French diplomatic initiatives elsewhere, have come against a background of concern in France at the possible "marginalisation" of the country in the awarding of post-war reconstruction contracts in Iraq. Since 1996 France has been one of Iraq's largest trading partners, French technology company Alcatel having agreed a deal to renovate Iraq's telephone system before the outbreak of hostilities, and French automobile manufacturers Peugeot and Renault having emerged as major suppliers to the Iraqi market. Should the US now decide to "punish" France for its role in resisting the US-led war, French business interests in Iraq could suffer. Nevertheless, public opinion in France remains supportive of France's role in the crisis, a poll carried out for the French newspaper Libération and published on 15 April showing that 59 per cent of the French public considered the US-led military intervention in Iraq to have been "a bad thing" and one likely to exacerbate regional and inter- communal conflicts. While a significant proportion of those questioned considered that the conflict had left France diplomatically isolated and at risk of US reprisals, 50 per cent thought that this was not the case, with a further 56 per cent considering that France's influence in the Arab world was now greater than ever.
