In failing to reach a ceasefire the Palestinians have again handed Ariel Sharon the political initiative. What will he do with it, asks Graham Usher in Jerusalem It looked as if it was in the bag. After weeks of quiet diplomacy Palestinian factions last week gathered in Cairo to agree to a new ceasefire, the keystone of Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei's plan to inject some life into a dead Middle East peace process. He expressed "optimism" that an agreement could be reached, as did Yasser Arafat and the chief mediator, Egyptian Intelligence head, Omar Suleiman. Even Ariel Sharon intimated that Israel would be up for some kind of unwritten understanding. "Israel will make every effort to avoid any operations against terrorists if there is quiet," he told reporters on Sunday, adding, however, that were "terror to continue, Israel will feel responsible for its citizens and Israel will act". He was not to be put to the test. Later that day the Cairo talks broke down without a statement being issued, let alone a ceasefire declared. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and three other factions refused even a moratorium on attacks on civilians inside Israel without international "guarantees" that Israel would end its military actions against civilians in the occupied territories. The position of the PA, Egypt, Fatah and the other Palestinian factions was to have an unconditional end to attacks on Israeli civilians, followed by movement toward a general truce in return for specific Israeli commitments, such as the withdrawal of the closure in the occupied territories and cessation of the construction of the West Bank barrier. There were also old/new divisions over the "sole, legitimate" Palestinian representative. Fatah -- backed by Egypt -- insisted that the PA must be authorised to negotiate with Israel on behalf of the factions, including those outside the PLO like Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The Islamists countered that only a new "united national leadership" could command that privilege. But the deeper divide was over strategy. Fatah and the PA believe a ceasefire is one of few means the Palestinians have to pressure and isolate Sharon in the absence of any meaningful American, European or Arab engagement in the diplomatic process. Hamas and Jihad take the view that Sharon's domestic problems and US travails in Iraq and Afghanistan have tilted the scales back in favour of the Palestinians and their strategy of armed resistance. It is a reading grounded in wishful thinking, said Fatah delegate to Cairo Ahmed Ghoneim. The Islamists have "a very weird analysis of the international situation. They believe the US, the PA and Israel are in crisis, but they are not". Ghoneim is probably right. It's true Sharon has been facing a few domestic squalls, ranging from the international interest generated by the "virtual" Geneva Accord to criticisms of his military policies from Israeli army and intelligence chiefs, old and new. But there is absolutely no sign that his government is about to fall. The main opposition Labour Party is still largely marked by its absence in the political arena. And polls show that solid majorities of Israeli Jews still have confidence in his overall leadership if not in specific policies. Sharon may be rocking but he is not about to keel over. But he may be embarking on a change of course. A few weeks ago he declared that should there be no progress along the roadmap he "would not rule out" unilateral moves, raising fears among the settlers that he was about to "abandon" isolated settlements and, among the Palestinians, that he was about to impose his own borders. On Tuesday he went a step further. Even if the roadmap process were to be resumed "it is possible that Israel will take some unilateral steps that include moving some settlements," he told the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee. Some Israeli analysts believe such remarks remain bluster, a classic instance of Sharon pretending to run while standing still. Others see them as pressure on the PA, warning the Palestinians "they will get more through an agreement than through a one-sided act." Still others believe there is something in Sharon's new turn. Writing in Maariv on Friday, Israeli political analyst Ben Caspit outlined what he believes is Sharon's new "three-stage" strategy. First there will be a unilateral evacuation of the settlers (though not the army) from the Gaza Strip combined with the annexation to Israel of the West Bank settlement blocs of Maale Adumim and Gush Etzion. This will be followed by negotiations with the PA on the roadmap and establishment of a "provisional" Palestinian state. Should these negotiations fail Israel will determine its own West Bank borders along the route of the barrier, leaving the Palestinians 58 per cent of the territory divided into two large cantons in the north and south but excluding Jerusalem. Time will tell which of these prognoses turns to be correct. Only one thing is clear. In failing to reach a ceasefire the Palestinians have again handed the political initiative to Sharon, reacting to his moves, real or bluff, rather than determining them. It is a consequence of what is now the "biggest" problem facing Palestinian political society, argues Palestinian analyst Hani Al-Masri. "The contradiction of having two equally powerful movements -- Fatah and Hamas -- advocating two different national strategies."
