Things to come

The cease-fire between the Palestinians and the Israelis is most probably a lull before the storm, writes Graham Usher from Ramallah
"Sharon says he wants a cease-fire and he's a liar," was the opinion of one veteran Palestinian analyst. It is a jaundiced view, in keeping with the mood of most Palestinians towards the truce brokered by CIA chief George Tenet last week. Yesterday, Israel's security cabinet decided not to abandon a truce deal with the Palestinians, a move most observers saw as tactical ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's visit to Washington next week. The consensus rather is that "Tenet's cease- fire" is a lull, before rather than after, the storm and that the storm will come courtesy of a "crushing military blow" delivered by Israel against the Palestinian Authority.
Which is not to say that Yasser Arafat and the PA are uncommitted to the truce. On the contrary, given the enormous international pressure exerted on them after the Hamas suicide bombing in Tel Aviv that left 20 Israeli civilians dead on 1 June, it is perhaps the only strategy they have left.
Pleading "necessity," on 15 June Arafat rallied Fatah's Central Committee behind his acceptance, instructing all "cadres to reinforce the cease-fire as a PA obligation." Hamas, too, has intimated it will forego "martyrdom operations against civilians" should Israel stop killing Palestinian civilians.
One reason for Hamas's conciliation is the "new atmosphere of national unity" forged by the nine-month Intifada, says one Palestinian source. But another is the PA's steadfast refusal so far to accede to Israel's demand to arrest "retroactively" Hamas and Islamic Jihad members "wanted" for actions taken during the uprising. "No Palestinian will be arrested for any activity conducted prior to the cease-fire," insisted PA West Bank Preventive Security Chief Jibril Rajoub on 17 June.
The result has been a "significant decrease" in Palestinian military and popular resistance in the last week, save for such war zones as Rafah in the Gaza Strip and the killing of an Israeli intelligence officer by his Palestinian informant near Bethlehem on 14 June. In response to escalating attacks by extremist settlers against Palestinian civilians, armed gunmen shot dead two settlers in the West Bank on 18 June. As a result, Sharon threatened Israel would reconsider its commitment to Tenet's truce. Yet, most observers did not expect Sharon to take such a step ahead of his meeting with US President George Bush. "To be honest I have been surprised by the extent to which the Palestinian factions have observed the cease-fire," admitted Rajoub.
The same cannot be said for the Israelis. Aside from such cosmetic measures as allowing the import of oil and gas into the PA areas, Israel's blockades on the occupied territories remain as severe and their soldiers' trigger fingers as loose as ever. Since the cease- fire came into effect on 13 June, five Palestinians have been shot dead by Israeli fire, including two boys aged 12 and 16.
More ominously, there are signs that armed settler groups have been granted latitude to enter the fray, with a wave of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in the West Bank. On 13 June the killing of a Palestinian in a drive-by shooting was claimed by a vigilante settler group. "Israel has to decide whether the settlers are part of the cease-fire. If not, the Palestinians will act accordingly," warned Rajoub.
It was this inaction vis-à-vis the blockades and settler assaults that prompted Arafat, at his meeting with Kofi Annan in Ramallah on 16 June, to again urge the UN secretary-general to dispatch international observers to the occupied territories to monitor the cease-fire. Annan was non-committal, though he did stress the need for "a clearer definition of the road ahead, so people do not think the only issue is the cease-fire."
That "clearer definition" includes a time-line for the other recommendations in the Mitchell report to be implemented, especially the freeze on Israel's settlement construction in the occupied territories and the resumption of political negotiations. Much to Arafat's undoubted pleasure, Annan also conveyed a request from him that caused the first major rupture in Israel's three-month old national unity government.
As a way to "consolidate the cease- fire," Arafat suggested a three-way meeting between himself, Annan and Shimon Peres. Peres accepted the idea, since "I think the better way to fight terrorism is through diplomatic channels with the help of the military." Ariel Sharon, however, was having none of it. "Any meeting with Arafat allows him to ridicule Israel and push us into negotiating under fire," he told Israeli Radio on 17 June. At a testy cabinet meeting the same day Peres responded in kind. "I cannot allow myself to sit in a unity government where decisions are made unilaterally. The unity government has two opinions [towards meeting Arafat] and I will not accept orders from anyone." Tempers were apparently soothed at a meeting between Peres and Sharon after the cabinet scuffle. But all Israeli and Palestinian analysts are aware that the spat was a portent of things to come.
This is because Sharon will be unable to implement the Mitchell report's call for a settlement freeze and keep the right flank of his coalition. On the other hand, not implementing a freeze leaves him exposed to threats of defection from Peres and the Labour Party. Either way his days as Israel's Prime Minister could be shortened.
Which is why most Palestinians are convinced Sharon will act to scupper the cease-fire long before the stage of Mitchell's "other recommendations" is reached, if not directly, then courtesy of his followers in the settler movement.
"I doubt Ariel Sharon will allow Arafat to do to him what he did to Peres, Netanyahu and Barak," predicted the veteran Palestinian analyst. "He won't allow Arafat to destroy him politically."
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