If everyone agrees that reform is essential, its direction remains controversial, writes Ibrahim Nafie Reform is inevitable in today's world. This is not so much a function of external political demands as a fact of life in a world that is changing at breakneck speed. Developments in science, technology, economics, transport and communication -- among many other realms of human activity -- have no direct bearing on politics, yet they constantly compel societies to readjust their patterns of work and thought. Reform, as a consequence, is not a magic recipe to be used once and then all problems vanish. Rather, it is an ongoing, dynamic process that involves attuning to, and sometimes keeping ahead of, changing realities. In Egypt we face many crucial problems which have accumulated, compounded and, in some cases, become endemic over the years. These need to be faced head on. Unfortunately, however much the plethora of opinions aired in the media reflect a widespread desire for reform, they have been so divergent as to help little in identifying the direction any actual reform should take. Some advocate speeding up privatisation in order to spur the economy. Others urge pumping more of our resources into reviving the public sector. While some call for urgent legislative and bureaucratic measures to generate a climate conducive to attracting the increased levels of foreign investment needed to boost economic growth rates and create job opportunities, others warn of the latent dangers of foreign investment and plead, instead, for greater self- reliance and the absorption of job-seekers by government agencies. Clearly, whatever reforms we embark on are bound to be criticised. However, given the urgency of our situation, this is no excuse for putting it off. We have three sources on which we might draw as we attempt to identify the direction reform should take. The first is Egypt's rich and diverse experience in this domain. An examination of the different approaches we have taken to political, economic and administrative reform is certain to help us determine what works and what does not. For example, most would agree that the economic reform programme implemented in the early 1990s was both comprehensive and highly effective. The boost it gave to economic growth lasted well beyond the programme's timeframe and this, in turn, enabled us to confront the challenges of the following phase with minimum pain and disruption. Without underestimating the problems Egypt faces at present, any impartial assessment must conclude that these problems would have been much more severe were it not for the achievements of the reforms instituted in the first half of the 1990s. That programme laid solid groundwork for an economic revival. In spite of the lull in the economic reform process over the past few years there is no reason why we cannot resume that experience and build on what are perhaps the only viable foundations for economic development. A second and indispensable source comprises the opinions and aspirations of the people. Bettering people's lives is, after all, the ultimate objective of reform and the success of any reform programme is contingent upon the public's understanding and response. The only way to gauge public opinion is through opinion polls. These have been regretfully few in Egypt, although Al-Ahram's Centre for Political and Strategic Studies has been working to overcome this shortcoming. In a recent survey asking respondents what they felt were Egypt's most severe economic problems 48 per cent rated unemployment highest, followed inflation, by 20.1 per cent. Clearly, any reform programme in the coming phase must focus on alleviating unemployment if it is to have the legitimacy of popular support. Still, there are easy answers and not so easy answers. Absorbing thousands of unemployed in government bureaucracies may win popular applause but in reality it is only a cosmetic solution and only prolongs the problem. Burdening the already cumbersome and grossly overstaffed government bureaucracy with more employees will only make it more inefficient, when the fact is our unwieldy and inefficient bureaucracy is itself in dire need of reform. Also, to be frank, government salaries, especially at the starting level, are barely sufficient to make ends meet, let alone to enable the young build for their future. Instead of this impracticable and unwieldy solution, the more sensible route is to increase investment in new enterprises in order to create opportunities for real jobs that offer appropriate wages or salaries. In order to do this we must generate a climate conducive to investment and eliminate the many impediments that have accumulated over recent years and that have made even local entrepreneurs wary of expanding their businesses and exploring new investment opportunities. Simultaneously, the same policies we need to improve the investment climate will also go a long way to solving the problem of rising prices and low income levels that respondents to the Al-Ahram PSRC poll ranked second and third after unemployment. The third source of inspiration we must draw on is a clear-sighted, forward looking vision. Only this can guarantee the necessary cohesion and harmony between reform policies across diverse areas. Egypt, fortunately, has such a vision, which takes as its fundamental tenets economic deregulation, assimilating into the global economic order, administrative reform, expanding the scope of popular participation in politics and opening the avenues of advancement to younger generations. This is the vision that has long been propounded by the Egyptian leadership and that was embraced by the National Democratic Party in its last two congresses. But, we must also admit that in spite of its clarity and the emphasis it has been given, that vision is not always transformed into practice. Whether because the bureaucrats charged with putting reforms into effect are too hesitant or because they fail to understand the purpose of the reforms, all too often implementation gets clogged up in the administrative works, to the extent that it appears that national policy planners and bureaucratic executives live in different worlds. It is imperative that all parts of the government apparatus learn to work together as a team. With the challenges we have before us we can no longer afford teams in which each member remains intent on going his own way, or even on undermining the work of his colleagues while covering his own back. Teamwork means cooperation, coordination and mutual support in the pursuit of the same objectives. The success of any reform programme depends upon team spirit.
