In the first of a series of articles exploring the regional fallout of the war on Iraq one year on, Omayma Abdel-Latif reports from Damascus on how Syria is coping The life-size painting of the late Syrian President Hafez Al- Assad dominates the entrance of Damascus University. Written beneath it are the words: "Hafez Al-Assad, our father and our leader for ever." The painting is one of many of its kind on the streets of Damascus. Almost four years after his death -- he died on 10 June 2000 -- Syrians still look up to Al-Assad as their country's saviour, who shepherded them through challenges ranging from internal insurgency to regional crises. "Under his leadership, we never felt we were a weak nation," said Siham Talab, a young journalist. One year after the invasion of Iraq and the fall of Ba'ath rule in Iraq, Syria has never been in a more vulnerable situation. With the United States' army only 250 kilometres from Damascus and growing pressure to create a more inclusive political system, questions are being raised about Syria's capacity to cope with the fallout of the occupation of Iraq. Perhaps one of the significant outcomes of the occupation of Iraq is the remarkable change in the US approach towards Damascus. The rhetoric from Washington's ruling cabal was initially one of overt hostility. The masterminds of the war on Iraq viewed Syria as yet another Arab society which is mired in the past and ruled by a long-expired nationalist ideology. Many were even tempted by the short-lived victory in Iraq to go after Syria next. The Syrian regime, however, remained defiant -- at least in its discourse -- and meanwhile exerted efforts to mend fences with Washington in a face-saving manner, while the Syrian media either played down or completely ignored the US threats. In fact, the general perception in the West about a stagnant and stalled Syria is in sharp contrast to the realities on the ground -- at least in terms of the social changes that have taken place since the death of Al-Assad. The view in Syria -- on both the popular and official levels -- is that new breathing spaces are emerging and that issues such as political reform, the economic crisis which is hitting the country hard, the need to assess the Ba'ath party's relationship to the state and the urgent need to curb corruption are key themes that are shaping the public debate. Many Syrians displayed a far greater willingness than one would have found some years ago to discuss political issues openly. There are also signs of the growing politicisation of Syrian society. But there is also Syrians who say that the regime has failed to live up to expectations regarding domestic reform, and that what was believed to be the Damascus spring of freedoms and political openness was short-lived and that much still needs to be done to restore trust between the state and its citizens. However both sides of the debate agree that the country will remain opposed to change along American lines for they view it as euphemism for humiliation and submission. That Syria needs reform is almost an article of faith to most Syrians; however, it will remain a country which marches to its own beat. THE NEW SYRIA: The street of Autostrad Al-Mazza, one of Damascus's middle class neighbourhoods, is a manifestation of the new, emerging Syria. The street which houses the Dar Al- Ba'ath -- one of the state's most important buildings, hosting the Ministry of Information on the eighth floor and the Ba'ath newspaper on the sixth -- has witnessed the birth of a new culture whose symbols are manifested in Western-modelled coffee shops and cyber cafes. Such places have recently become meeting points for Syria's young and affluent, giving rise to what one Syrian sociologist described as "a silent revolution". Syrian observers argue that the changes go beyond the social realm and also affect the state realm. One significant change, according to Emad Al-Shueibi, a leading political commentator who is close to the circles of the Syrian president, is that "in today's Syria, the state is not dependent on the security services to rule the country". "In the past if we wanted to travel abroad, we needed to take the permission of the mukhabarat [the military intelligence]. Now this procedure stopped. The security service does not arrest any citizens except with a legal warrant. Their role in the state affairs is not a dominant one any more," Al-Shueibi told Al-Ahram Weekly at his office last week. Al-Shueibi pointed out that Syrian President Bashar Al- Assad has an agenda for change. The president explained his views on reform in one of his speeches: "The issue is not one of replacing individuals, but rather [the] general order of things has to evolve naturally, otherwise there was no value in replacing individuals." Bashar has striven to carry out such plans but as Syrian officials would themselves acknowledge, he has been met with fierce resistance from some elements within the system. While some Syrian officials play down the impact the occupation of Iraq had on the Syrian political scene, Bashar told Al-Arabiya TV shortly after the invasion that "what happened in Iraq has made an impact on all of us and left us thinking about how to develop our own countries". Al-Shueibi does not take such declarations to mean that Syria may succumb to US pressures. "Syria's reform plan is not the fruit of US pressure or the events in Iraq," he insisted. The process of reform, he argued, goes back some four years when Bashar took office. "He spoke about democracy and transparency, and he was personally concerned with the margins of individual freedoms. He simply does not want to be a dictator. He wants to create a system based on state and institution- building, a system which does not rely on highly personalised power." It is true that when the then 34-year old Bashar took office in 2000 after the death of his father, there was what many considered a brief Damascus spring. Bashar's rule was based more on collective leadership than that of his father, which was highly personalised. He seemed to realise that all of the alternatives available to him, reform constituted by far the best option, so he demonstrated an ardent commitment to it. The Syrians were introduced to the world of Internet, mobile phones and satellite dishes. For the first time since 1963 when martial laws were enforced, a private newspaper called Aldomary was launched. Further, Syrian society witnessed the creation of tens of civil society groups which openly discussed the country's political and social ills in al-muntadayaat, or public discussion forums. Despite the fact that such activities were short-lived, they made an impact that could not be ignored. Syrians were now more eager to speak out critically against the state. In the offices of prominent Ba'athists and state ministers, and in the Western- modelled and other public places, the television is almost always switched on Al-Jazeera and hardly on the state-owned television. While pressure is mounting to revert to this spring of freedoms, observers argue that any ambitious reform plan, is more likely to be hindered by a bureaucracy which is accustomed to benefiting from the status quo, and by sections of the old guard who want to hold on to the privileges they amassed during the Hafez Al-Assad era. But Syrian officials who spoke to the Weekly described the view dominating the Western media discourse which portrays two wings fighting over reform as simplistic. "The picture is more complicated than one of old guard, new guard clichés, or of anti-reform and pro-reform wings. Some in the old guard are for privatisation and free trade and many of the senior members of the old guard are in fact the ones who own the Internet cafes, the Western-modelled coffee shops and the new big businesses," one member of the Ba'ath Party who asked not to be named told the Weekly. Encircled, broke and threatened by the US, Syria is still standing its ground "Every issue, be it political or social, has to go through conflicts, and [there is] no doubt that there are forces which stand against reform in Syria but there are also forces that demand it. We cannot say that there are two trends but there are shades of opinions and it is difficult to speak of one wing that has a similar view on almost all issues." Youssef Al-Faysal, secretary-general of the Syrian Communist Party" "The process of reform goes back some four years, to when Bashar took office. He spoke about democracy and transparency, and he was personally concerned with the margins of individual freedom. He simply does not want to be a dictator. He wants to create a system based on state and institution-building, a system that does not rely on highly personalised power." Emad Al-Shueibi, Syrian political commentator" But there is a general consensus, even among the staunchest supporters of the Ba'ath, that this regime will owe its durability more to a process of democratisation and to creating an inclusive political system and less to reverting to tactics of repression. This in some ways explains how Syrians can now talk openly about "corruption in the system", "the harsh and deteriorating economic situation", and "the urgent need to reform". Issues like these were almost taboo in the past. Even the state-owned papers have not shied away from discussing the price hikes and other economic problems. The Ba'ath newspaper -- the party's mouthpiece -- published last week two daring cartoons by its cartoonist Raed Khalil. One cartoon depicts a Syrian citizen trying to lift a stick set on fire -- representing the prices. Another depicts two Syrians watching in awe as two money containers with wings fly off -- representing the flight of capital out of the country. While the papers do not explicitly criticise the state policies which are responsible for the economic crisis, according to one Syrian observer the very fact that there is an acknowledgment that such a crisis exists and that it is talked about nevertheless constitutes a significant break with tradition. The crisis, according to Youssef Al-Faysal, secretary-general of the Syrian Communist Party (SCP), gave rise to popular resentment, particularly amongst the working class and civil servants. "We should admit that popular resentment exists across many sections of the society. These classes [endure] harsh economic circumstances and their economic needs should be met to maintain stability in Syria," Al-Faysal told the Weekly in an interview in the SCP headquarters in Damascus. The other aspect of the crisis, Al-Faysal continued, has to do with the demands made by a large section of the Syrian intelligentsia for the expansion of the democratic process in the country. Al-Faysal is also a member of the central command of the Progressive National Front (PNF), a coalition that works in partnership with the Ba'ath Party and which comprises seven opposition parties. Al-Faysal believes that it is imperative that the Syrian state addresses the economic situation in order to open up breathing spaces for Syrian citizens. Economic reform, however, should go hand in hand with political liberalisation and a pluralistic political order. Syrian politicians insist that the existing system does carry pluralistic features. The structure of the political system in Syria, they argue, is based on a partnership between the Ba'ath Party and the PNF. The cabinet has eight ministers who belong to the coalition. In the People's Assembly, there are 36 PNF deputies. The SCP for example has representation in local municipalities and professional syndicates. "Those who think that the PNF's role is only marginal in Syrian politics are mistaken. The PNF plays a central role in the shaping of political decisions and debate within the Syrian ruling class," Al-Faysal explained. Scepticism, however, remains. Opponents argue that the Ba'ath Party monopolises the decision-making process in Syria and that Article Eight of the Syrian Constitution lends credence to their argument. It stipulates that "in any state organisation the Ba'ath Party has to have half of the members plus one". In other words if the cabinet is comprised of 30 members, 16 of them should be Ba'athists while the rest should be PNF and independent members. Recently the Ba'ath party issued Resolution 408 demanding the separation between the state and the party -- in other words, that the party should not interfere in the formation of current state policies and that its mission should be confined to monitor the political process. This resolution, however, according to Al-Faysal was not translated into concrete action. "Some of the Ba'athists who are accustomed to benefiting from the status quo during the past three decades are fiercely resisting the implementation of such a resolution. They simply don't want to lose their influence," he said. But Al-Faysal acknowledges that there is a section within the ruling class which supports reform and is keen to appoint non- Ba'athists to positions of influence, like Maher Dagher, who heads the state planning authority and Damascus university. He is also a non-Ba'athist. Such moves, according to Al-Faysal, do actually implement the principle of separating the party from the state. IS SYRIA NEXT?: Following the US invasion of Iraq, there was a strong feeling in Syria and across the region that the Washington hawks would not stop with Baghdad. The rhetoric from the White House was that the collapse of the regime in Iraq should teach a lesson to both Syria and Iran. Almost a year on, while the US is bogged down in Iraq, the idea that Syria would be next in a line of occupations has been dismissed by most Syrian politicians and analysts. One Syrian observer explained that there are problems between Syria and the US, and that these are not likely to be fixed by public relations campaigns, as some Syrian officials think. "I think [the] problem has to do with Syria's standing in the Arab world. Syria is a state which remains adamantly opposed to US schemes in the region and plays a role in mobilising the Arab street. The US does not want this and this is why it puts pressure on the Syrians to give up such principles," George Jabbour, a prominent Syrian intellectual and currently a member of parliament told the Weekly. This view was echoed by Al-Shueibi who believes that the problem is that "the Americans have an ideological project and they have in it impossible conditions for Syria." Syria offered significant intelligence assistance to America's 'war on terror', but when it comes to the Middle East -- particularly with regards to the issues of Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict -- one Syrian observer said that the US is not keen to strike a deal with Damascus but rather to get one concession after the other. "They want us to expel the Palestinians factions, cut our lifeline support for Hizbullah and get the Syrian army out of Lebanon, and these are core issues in Syrian political identity. So when they ask us to give those issues up, it means that we will give up our identity." the official said. He explained that while the US is implementing some of the strategies it used with Iraq in its current dealings with Syria, it is likely that the pressure on Syria will remain diplomatic in nature and that any prospect of a military action will be dismissed -- at least until the US presidential elections in November are over. The past few months have certainly witnessed an escalation of political pressure on Syria. According to this Syrian official a number of steps were taken to further push Damascus into a corner. They included US President George W Bush's ratification of the Syria Accountability Act and the Lebanon Sovereignty Act, the moral and financial backing of Syrian opposition abroad and the incitement of an anti-Syria demonstration in Lebanon. The official Syrian interpretation of the Kurdish riots which broke out in the Qameshly governorate last month is that they were "the work of external forces" to test the strength of the Syrian state and weaken its position. The US has also put pressure on Europe to impede the completion of the Euro-Syrian partnership deal. Al-Shueibi says that in the US there are two schools of thought as to how to handle the Syrian question. On the one hand, the neo-conservatives are demanding that Syria remain a high profile target but that it should be left to Israel to handle, while on the other hand there are those who take what Al- Shueibi calls a "realpolitik approach", which calls for attacking Iran and containing Syria. As Syria stands at a crossroads, social and political reform, according to Jabbour, become a strategic imperative to find an honourable exit from the country's current impasse. "Syria is today torn between two key issues: [fighting for] its national cause and its standing in the Arab world, and [facing] the urgent internal need for reform and democratisation," he said. "One cannot be replaced by the other because, for Syria to be able to face up to the external pressure and preserve its anti- imperialist approach, it will have to rely on a strong cohesive home front." Next week: The Ba'ath legacy: It is a make or break moment for Syria's Ba'ath. Can it cope with the pressure? Syrian opposition: Between a rock and a hard place
