A year and a half after its "liberation", Iraq appears to be coming apart at the seams. Hassan Hamid reports from Baghdad The security situation in Iraq is fast deteriorating and the interim Iraqi government headed by Iyad Allawi and the United States- led occupation troops have so far failed to address the issue which could thwart the long- awaited January elections. The deplorable security situation in Iraq has resulted in the loss of more than 300 lives in the past week alone -- in the capital Baghdad, as well as elsewhere in Iraq. People in Iraq's capital city suffer almost daily street fighting, kidnappings and car bombings. Such violence has made it almost impossible for Arabs and foreigners to come to Iraq to take part in re-building the war-torn country, which has suffered three wars in two decades and 13 years of economic sanctions. Even Iraqis who have been living in Iraq for all their lives now think seriously of fleeing their homeland because of the daily bombings and kidnappings almost one and half year after the fall of Saddam Hussein. In their campaign to drive out US-led occupation troops and hamper reconstruction, insurgents have kidnapped more than 135 foreigners over the last few months. This week, a mysterious videotape claimed that a militant group held 18 Iraqi soldiers. Two Americans and one Briton were kidnapped in Baghdad. According to a videotape that appeared on a website one of the American hostages was beheaded by the Jordanian- born Islamist militant Abu Musaab Al- Zarqawi, head of Al-Qaeda network in Iraq. Islamist militants took credit for beheading three Iraqi Kurds they say cooperated with American forces, and a car bomb exploded in the northern city of Samaraa, leaving three people dead and many other wounded, including four US soldiers. While security is worsening, the planned elections in January have already driven a rift between the two main Iraqi religious groups -- the Sunni and Shia Muslims. While leaders of the Shia Muslims have stressed that the elections should be held on their agreed date, 31 January 2005, Sunni leaders dissented. "We are against holding the elections while Iraq is still under (US) occupation," a senior member of the Association of Sunni Muslims, Ahmed Al-Samarae, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "If the elections are held under these circumstances, they won't be fair and just," he said, adding, "the invaders will impose the figures they want in the so-called elected government in order to obtain a legal status for them to stay in Iraq." Ordinary Iraqis interviewed by the Weekly have also displayed the same divergence of opinion among Iraqi clerics. Some Iraqis oppose the elections while the others support it. "I doubt very much that honest and fair elections are going to take place," Ali Hamoud, a taxi driver said, adding the elections would be influenced by the occupation forces. "Allawi and his American masters should first provide us with decent security before providing us with their false democracy," Abu Sami, a shopkeeper said. "Elections should take place as soon as possible in order to choose a decent government that can put an end to this chaotic situation," Abu Firas, a book seller, said. "If we want honest and fair elections, they should be managed and supervised by the United Nations," said Abu Alaa, a retired Iraqi teacher. Even UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has expressed grave reservations about the elections. He has warned that there could not be "credible elections in Iraq if the security conditions continue as they are now". Annan opened a Pandora's box when he mentioned last week for the first time that the American- led war launched against Iraq was illegal. His comment has prompted angry reactions from Britain, the US and Australia, the main allies in the war against the regime of Saddam. Annan is allowing just 35 UN international staffers in the country until security improves, which will severely limit on-the-ground elections help from UN experts. UN staff left Iraq last year after a car bomb blew up their main headquarters in Baghdad, killing at least 23 people including Annan's representative in Iraq. The security problem in Iraq and the January elections have become an issue of contest between US President George W Bush and his rival Democratic presidential candidate Senator John Kerry. Kerry said recently that he would not have overthrown Saddam had he been in the White House, and he accused Bush of "stubborn incompetence." Bush wants to devote more than $3 billion out of the $18 billion reserved for Iraq's reconstruction campaign, to be spent on security matters in the country. Kerry recently called on Bush to do a better job rallying allies, training Iraqi security forces, hastening reconstruction plans and ensuring that elections are held on time. Britain, the US's main ally in the war against Iraq, is considering sending more troops to Iraq to boost security during the elections. Britain currently has 9,000 troops serving with the US-led coalition forces in Iraq. A US intelligence report warned that the security situation in Iraq is going to get worse before it gets better. The report, conducted by the US National Intelligence Council and presented to President Bush this summer, predicted a civil war in Iraq before the end of 2005. The potential conflict could be among the country's three main groups -- the Sunnis, the Shia and the Kurds. The document also lays out a scenario in which increased extremism and fragmentation in Iraqi society would seriously impede efforts to build a central government and adversely affect attempts to democratise the country.
