Despite Egypt's announcement that it will host an international conference on Iraq, reports Rasha Saad, the planned gathering's fate seems far from certain Egypt announced on Saturday that it was gearing up to host an international conference dealing with the upcoming elections in Iraq. Sharm El-Sheikh was chosen as a venue, and the last week of November planned as the date. The ministerial conference, called for by Iraq and supported by the US, would be designed to help promote stability in the chaos-torn country, and to support the elections planned for January. The meeting's participants would include the Neighbouring States Group (Egypt, Kuwait, Jordan, Syria, Iran and Turkey), the G8 industrial nations, China, and envoys from the UN, the Arab League, the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, and the European Union. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiar Zebari, at the meeting of Iraqi neighbouring states held in July, first suggested a presidential-level conference be held. Both Zebari and US Secretary of State Colin Powell then reiterated the call for an international conference, but this time on the ministerial level, during their meetings with Arab officials on the fringes of the UN General Assembly meetings in New York at the end of last month. Official Foreign Ministry sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that intensive contacts are still taking place between Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and the various would-be participants, including members of the Iraqi interim government, and that the November date set for the conference might not be final. "We are still conducting deliberations with different parties and there are some outlines that we need to clarify with these parties before the meeting," the source said. "There are differences among participants concerning preparations for the conference, but there are no disputes." Privately, however, some Arab and Egyptian diplomats discounted these kinds of optimistic statements. They said the conference-related disputes went far beyond deliberations on when the conference would be held. The main dispute, according to these sources, is that the wide range of participants has different and conflicting agendas for Iraq, and that such disputes threaten the conference's very existence. Abul-Gheit hinted last week that if the conference is to take place, participants should have a consensus on its goals, agenda and final communiqué. There are major concerns, however, that these aims might be far fetched, and that the absence of specific proposals and outcomes might place the conference's fate in jeopardy. France has reportedly conditioned its participation in the conference on the withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq. French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier said last week that his country believed the conference should discuss the question of whether the US- led forces should withdraw from the country. He also said the conference should include representatives of the armed opposition. Both demands have been ruled out by Iraq. According to Zebari, the conference "is a governmental one that will not include opposition or non-governmental or political entities". He also said that the withdrawal of foreign forces was a decision to be made by the new government. "At the moment, these forces are needed." Italy's Deputy Prime Minister Gianfranco Fini, who visited Egypt last week, announced his country's blessing of the conference. Fini also told Egyptian officials that foreign troops would no longer be necessary in Iraq once elections had been held. Fini's statements were viewed as a hint that Italy would withdraw its 3,000 soldiers from Iraq after the elections. The Germans believe that a conference on Iraq should not be held just a few weeks after US elections take place on 2 November. German officials say the conference should be postponed until the new US administration settles in. "Egypt might be reconsidering its offer as it now feels uncomfortable with the idea of hosting what is perceived to be a controversial conference," said an Iraqi diplomat based in Cairo. Diplomatic sources also told the Weekly that Cairo is thinking twice about holding a conference that will not be a success. According to these sources, the main reason behind Egypt's enthusiasm to hold the conference in the first place is its fear, shared by other Arab countries, that the failure of Iraq's democratic process will drag the entire region into an abyss. While preparing for the conference, Cairo is considering three main points: first, that Egypt, like all Arab countries, is aware that the conference must meet American expectations, since the US has thrown its weight behind holding the conference and behind Egypt as the "leading candidate" to host it; second, that Egypt should guarantee that the conference outcome will be within the parameters of the Arab League's resolutions on Iraq; third, that Egypt should guarantee that it will be playing an instrumental role in the Iraqi process. This final demand, some suspect, is a sore point amongst the "higher echelons" of the Iraqi interim government "who are against this conference, and who would consider a postponement of the elections, rather than plans to secure holding them on time, more appropriate to their interests," said the Iraqi diplomat. One main reason why preparations for the summit are not easy, according to observers, is that the situation in Iraq is itself extremely complicated. The elections are intended not just to establish a parliament from which a new, more legitimate government will be drawn; the new body will also be involved in drawing up a new constitution. It will also have to resolve the central political dilemma Iraq is facing: how to distribute power between the Kurds in the north, the Shia (by far the largest sector of the population), and the Sunni minority in such a way that they remain bound together within a single state. With the elections now just four months away, the country continues to be mired in daily violence. Many in the Arab world are wondering how valid elections can be held under these circumstances; some are already suggesting postponement, an option that US and Iraqi officials are hoping the conference would help exclude. Earlier last month, King Abdullah of Jordan expressed doubts about holding the Iraqi elections on time, saying that it would be impossible to organise fair elections "given the current state of chaos there". Hisham Youssef, the Arab League secretary- general's cabinet chief, said many other League members share the Jordanian king's concerns. "The security situation might lead to a situation whereby members of the international community who are interested and willing to participate in the supervision of the elections may be prevented from doing so," Youssef said. The consequences of the prevailing chaos on the future of Iraqi elections have also drawn conflicting opinions from US officials about whether all citizens will be able to vote. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told Congress that elections must be held throughout the country, including areas gripped by violence. But Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said that if insurgents prevent Iraqis from voting in some areas, a partial vote would be better than none at all. Powell reiterates the State Department's assertion that all Iraqis must have the chance to vote if the election is to be credible. "There will be polling stations that are shot at. There will be insurgents who will still be out there who will try to keep people from voting," he said. In a recent interview, Abul-Gheit summed up the present situation in Iraq as "tragic". He explained that the country is in a real dilemma: while the foreign presence and the destruction of the Iraqi army are both to blame for the instability and chaos, any sudden withdrawal of foreign forces might accelerate a civil war. Abul-Gheit said that he trusts the Iraqis are wise enough to keep their country unified, and that the only viable fate for them involves achieving stability. "It is difficult at this moment to say how or when this goal will be achieved. I know that this process will definitely take time but I hope that this conference is one tool to achieve this target."
