US and Iraqi troops are preparing an all-out assault on Falluja. But will the Sunni insurgency be put down? Salah Hemeid investigates For two months the United States army in Iraq has been bombarding Falluja. A mostly Arab Sunni city of 300,000 people, Falluja is a stronghold for supporters of the anti-American insurgency. US air strikes have killed hundreds and wounded thousands of people. Over the past week US forces have battled the resistance fighters in what might be the beginning of a massive military operation aimed at crushing the insurgency and gaining control of the town. It is looking very similar to what happened in Samaraa, another bastion of the Sunni resistance, last month. While helicopters, fighter-bombers, field artillery and tanks continued targeting what they called insurgents' hideouts, the US ground forces threw a "dynamic cordon" around the city to prevent the rebels from fleeing to other towns. Press reports quoted residents stating that explosions and heavy gunfire accompanied military clashes on the edges of the city. US tanks were pitted against fighters armed with rocket-propelled grenades and mortars. US military officials labelled the strikes "shaping operations", a term used to describe operations intended to remove enemy strong points in advance of a major assault. The operations sent a wave of panic through Falluja and sent families streaming out of the town, many of them fearing a long-awaited American offensive to retake the city. Indeed, US and Iraqi officials say the latest raids were part of an intensive campaign against foreign militants who were led by America's top enemy in Iraq, Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi. His Al-Jihad wa Al-Tawhid group has claimed responsibility for kidnappings, beheadings, car bombings and other suicide strikes throughout Iraq. The US forces say a large scale assault can only be avoided if foreign fighters are expelled from the town. While the US forces stepped up their attacks, US and Iraqi officials opened a diplomatic window of opportunity to resolve the bloody conflict. Iraqi officials have been in discussion with Falluja leaders to restore government control. This follows a precedent set in Baghdad when Iraqi authorities cut deals to end fighting with Shia militiamen. However, the Falluja talks broke down on Thursday as a result of government demands to hand over Al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian fugitive. The Falluja delegation said the demand to hand over Al- Zarqawi was an "impossible precondition". They also refused to hand over people whom the government accuses of killing, kidnapping and highway robbery. Others urged for a campaign of civil disobedience if the US forces launched their assault. Some clerics in the town have even threatened to call for a "holy war" against the American forces and the Iraqi government if they did not halt the current offensive. Is there any hope that the two-way strategy the US and the Iraqi government are using to end the Falluja insurgency will succeed? In counter-insurgency operations, military victory is important but can rarely win the war. Sound political strategies can. The aim of the government should be to win the hearts and minds of the majority of the population and thus drain the insurgents of their resources. Local tribal and political leaders in Falluja reportedly have said that they place great hopes in the American-led offensive. Once the insurgency is crushed, they hope, Sunni Arabs, including those in Falluja, will step forward to take part in the political process and run for office. As in many other parts of the Sunni areas, the people of Falluja have turned against the US occupation because they believe it excludes them politically. The Coalition Provisional Authority, established by the Americans after the war, also fails to grasp that Saddam Hussein retains a base of popular support in Iraq. Although he had been ruthless to many Sunnis, much of the Sunni Arab population either supported him directly or opposed his ouster. They feared that regime change would cost them their historic monopoly over the state and its precious resources. Heading towards the election in January to choose a National Assembly that will draft a permanent constitution and pick a provisional government, both sides may have some time for determining their next step. The new political system is expected to empower the Shia, who constitute at least 60 per cent of Iraq's population. This is an enormous shock to Iraq's Arab Sunnis who represent around 15 per cent of the Iraqi population. Without adequate Sunni representation on the National Assembly, many Sunnis fear that the constitution may not adequately protect them. Some Sunni leaders, especially those who are planning to run for office, say they still expect a large turnout from Sunni voters once they realise that they will be left behind if they do not take part in the election. The Sunni Triangle, the area west of Baghdad, including Falluja, has been a hotbed of insurgency. Sunni leaders campaigning for political office say they have begun meeting with Sunni tribal leaders to persuade them to support their candidacies. While some Sunni leaders, like those in the Association of Muslim Scholars, say free elections are not possible until the Americans leave the country, others say they may be willing to take part under certain conditions. In this case, the Sunni leaders say, their people may yet come out to vote in large numbers. Yet nobody can be sure whether Iraq's interim government will be able to reach a deal in Falluja that will end the insurgency and succeed in including the rebellious town in the political process. There are signs that the government is loosing patience. One factor which American officials consider is whether such a big assault with a high potential for casualties on both sides can be launched before the US presidential elections. Another of the factors weighing heavily on Iraqi leaders and American commanders is whether they should risk an attack during Ramadan. Religious feelings run high during this month, and the American commanders are considering delaying an assault until after Ramadan is over. However, the Americans and the Iraqi government are determined to avoid the same mistake they committed back in April. This had seen them entering into an agreement with the Falluja leaders. US troops would retreat and give the town to the soldiers of Saddam's army and Republican guard. The result of this was that the militants only grew stronger. Still, for all the carrot and stick tactics used by the government, the effectiveness of the new strategy is uncertain.
