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Not before November
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 16 - 09 - 2004

The Bush administration's bid to bring the Iraqi resistance to heel before the US presidential elections are destined to failure, writes Hassan Hamid from Baghdad
The United States-led forces in Iraq have intensified their attacks against insurgents across the country over the last week in a bid viewed by analysts here as an attempt to curb insurgency before the US elections scheduled for November this year.
This opinion has been supported by a statement made recently by US Secretary of State Colin Powell when he said the US would bring Iraqi insurgents under control and "finish the work that we started".
But many doubt that the US would be able to do that in a matter of less than two months. "The Bush administration has been acting swiftly to wipe out resistance in Iraq so it can convince American voters that the task in Iraq is finished and there will be no more US casualties," one analyst said. "But can the administration meet its target? I doubt it."
Over the last week, US troops launched fierce attacks against Iraqi villages and towns, which have seen violence over the last few months as a result of insurgency against US-led occupation. US warplanes, tanks and artillery units launched attacks against fighters of the Shia leader Moqtada Al-Sadr in Sadr City in Baghdad and insurgents in Falluja, 70km northwest of Baghdad, Samaraa, 100km north of Baghdad, and Tel Afar, 500km north of the capital.
The fieriest fighting has taken place in the city of Falluja where US forces are struggling to regain the city. US Marines lost the city last spring when they lifted a three-week siege and handed over security to the US--sanctioned Falluja Brigade, commanded by former officers in Saddam Hussein's army.
A roadside bomb also prompted the US air strikes during the week, which has led to the killing of seven US Marines. Islamic organisations in the city and residents said that the strikes had claimed the lives of tens of innocent people including children and women. The US army in Iraq said that the strikes were against strongholds of the Al-Qaeda network in Iraq led by the Jordanian militant Abu Musaab Al-Zarqawi.
The death toll among American soldiers serving in Iraq now exceeds 1,000 since US President George W Bush announced the end of the war against Iraq in May last year.
That figure has prompted Democratic presidential candidate Senator John Kerry to criticise President Bush for launching the war against Iraq. Kerry also called the war on Iraq "the wrong war at the wrong time in the wrong place".
"Kerry has started using the most popularly explosive means to defeat Bush in the elections which is mainly the death toll among the American soldiers in Iraq," another analyst said. "So Bush has ordered the army to finish the insurgency as quickly as possible."
Among the steps taken by the US army to regain control of Sunni-dominated Falluja was dissolving the Falluja Brigade, a move seen here as a step to bring Falluja back under the control of US forces.
Over the last five months, the insurgents in Falluja have been consolidating their grip, building their Islamic society and preparing for a new showdown with the Americans.
US air strikes against Falluja over the last few days have heightened tension in the city, feeding fears that an all-out American attack may be imminent. That has prompted hundreds of families to flee their homes, transforming neighbourhoods facing US positions into ghost towns.
The group has claimed to have shot down a US drone aircraft near Falluja, but the US military has reported no such loss. Al-Zarqawi's group has claimed responsibility for the series of attacks on US and Iraqi government targets over the last week, one of the heaviest weeks of fighting in Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime last year.
In Baghdad, the saddest incident in the week took place on Sunday, when tens of Iraqis were killed as a US helicopter fired on a disabled US Bradley fighting vehicle as Iraqis swarmed around it, cheering, throwing stones. Among the victims were children. The Bradley vehicle was hit by a mortar. One of the victims was an Al-Arabiya TV reporter who was reporting the incident live.
In one day of violence during the last week, at least 59 Iraqis were killed in clashes with US military across Iraq. In another day 48 Iraqis were killed and another 114 wounded when a suicide attacker blew up a truck bomb near a police recruiting office in downtown Baghdad. Other 12 police were gunned down by unknown attackers in Baqouba, 50km east of Baghdad.
Most Iraqis blame the interim government and the US troops for failing to provide the necessary security in the country.
Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi was quoted as saying that 3,000 Iraqis were killed and 12,000 were wounded this year from acts of violence. According to independent statistics, some 20,000 Iraqis were killed since the coalition forces ousted Saddam's regime. Many Iraqis believe that the figure is much higher than that.
The insurgents retaliated by launching one of their most intense mortar and rocket barrages ever in the heart of the capital.
Fighters loyal to the militant Shia cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr fired small arms and rocket- propelled grenades at US patrols in Sadr City. Many casualties among Al-Sadr's fighters were reported.
In Najaf, which was the scene of fierce fighting three weeks ago between US troops and the Al-Mahdi Army -- Al-Sadr's fighters -- hundreds of protesters marched last week through the streets of the Shia holy city to demand Moqtada Al-Sadr and his aides leave the city.
The latest bout of violence in Najaf lasted for three weeks and ended only when Iraq's most influential Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al- Sistani, brokered a peace deal in Najaf last month. The clashes left many streets, markets and buildings utterly destroyed and ruined the city's economy.
The Iraqi interim government has devoted 50 billion Iraqi dinars ($40 million) to rebuild the city.
The legacy of hostage-taking has continued during the last week. Two Australians and two East Asians were the latest people kidnapped by a militant Islamic group in Iraq near Samaraa, also the scene of violence over the last few days. Two Italian women, working with a humanitarian organisation in Baghdad, were kidnapped on 7 September. A statement signed by Islamic Jihad Organisation in Iraq said that the group threatened to kill them if Italy doesn't withdraw its troops from Iraq in 24 hours.
The Italian government has ruled out negotiating with the kidnappers of Simona Pari and Simona Torretta, both 29, who work for an Italian aid agency and were involved in school and potable water projects in Iraq.
Earlier two French reporters disappeared on a trip to the southern Iraqi city of Najaf. Militants claiming to hold the men demanded that France revoke a law banning Islamic head scarves from state schools. But the law went into effect as planned last week.
A group linked to Al-Qaeda has claimed responsibility for taking the two French hostages. These Islamic groups who usually claim responsibility for taking hostages demand countries of these nationals to withdraw their forces from Iraq or stop their cooperation with the US military in Iraq. Many of the hostages have been assassinated. Three Lebanese nationals were shot dead in Baghdad but the circumstances of their deaths were shrouded in mystery.
Meantime, Al-Qaeda second man, Ayman Al- Zawahri, released a tape aired by Al-Jazeera TV in which he said the US was on the brink of defeat in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
The release of the tape came two days before the third anniversary of the 11 September attacks on New York and Washington attributed to Al-Qaeda. A US-coalition launched attacks on Afghanistan aimed at destroying Al-Qaeda camps and the Taliban government that had hosted Bin Laden and his followers.
In the diplomatic front, Iraqi Interim President Ghazi Al-Yawar has started a European tour that took him already to Poland, Italy and Germany where he lobbied for writing off part of Baghdad's debts inherited from Saddam Hussein's regime.
His European schedule also includes Spain, Britain and the European Union headquarters in Brussels. He postponed a visit to Paris, originally meant to be the first stop on his European tour. No official reason has been given, but tensions between Paris and Baghdad heightened recently over the kidnapping of two French journalists in Iraq.


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