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Bush poised for victory
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 04 - 11 - 2004

Bush wins the popular vote, as well as a second term in the White House, reports, Khaled Dawoud from Washington
Fears that the results of the US presidential elections might not be known for weeks turned out to be untrue despite attempts by Senator John Kerry's campaign managers to delay the announcement of the final results after disputing the vote in Ohio.
After a long and heated campaign, notable for mud-slinging and smears, the projections of pollsters ahead of voting turned out to be accurate, particularly in terms of the close competition between Bush and Kerry in a dozen contested states. What the pollsters had not predicted, though, was that George W Bush would win the popular vote with a 3.5 million majority, the largest since 1988. Bush, it seems, had convinced the American electorate that he is the leader who could be trusted to protect their security.
While the majority of states followed the voting pattern of the last election, returns in Florida sent the first signs of panic through the Kerry camp. In 2000 Bush won Florida with a narrow margin of 537 votes after a hectic recount process that lasted for 38 days. Yesterday the Republicans kept the state, this time with a 377,000 majority.
The Florida declaration was followed by a delayed call in Michigan. Traditionally a Democratic bastion, the race was obviously close, though Kerry in the end managed to hang on to the state. But the biggest battle was yet to come.
After counting votes in Ohio Bush was clearly ahead with a majority of 136,122. But Kerry refused to concede defeat until absentee and provisional ballots in the state had been counted. Absentee ballots include US citizens and soldiers living abroad, as well as those who cast their ballot by mail because they cannot vote in their own constituency. Provisional ballots were introduced following problems faced by many voters in 2000, particularly in Florida. Any citizen who wants to vote but cannot find his or her name on voter registration lists can still cast a ballot though it would be considered provisional until the voters eligibility to vote is verified.
Kerry's campaign managers insisted that absentee and provisional ballots in Ohio, which usually do not get counted until 10 days after voting day, exceeded the margin that would allow Bush to declare victory. They said there were nearly 250,000 absentee and provisional ballots in Ohio, while Republicans insisted the number did not exceed 150,000.
After it became obvious that the Ohio vote would determine the winner -- Bush had secured 254 electoral college votes against 252 for Kerry -- Democratic vice president candidate Senator John Edwards delivered a short speech to clearly disappointed supporters.
"John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that in this election, every vote would count and every vote would be counted," he said. "Tonight we are keeping our word, and we will fight for every vote."
Meanwhile President Bush, following the results at the White House, sent his White House chief of staff, Andrew Card, to the Republican headquarters at Reagan Center in Washington DC, to underline Republican party strategists' conviction that Bush had won.
"We are convinced that President Bush has won reelection with at least 286 Electoral College votes. And he also had a margin of more than three and a half million popular votes," Card said. "In Ohio President Bush has a lead of at least 140,000 votes. The Secretary of State's Office has informed us that this margin is statistically insurmountable even after the provisional ballots are considered," he added.
With a clear sense of irony, Card said that "President Bush decided to give Senator Kerry the respect of more time to reflect on the results of this election," and declared that Bush would deliver a statement himself, probably confirming victory, late yesterday (Wednesday).
Card also pointed to the strong Republican showing in the elections for all 435 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the seats in the Senate. The Republican Party increased its majority in the House by at least 10 seats, and won five extra seats in the Senate. The most humiliating defeat was suffered by the Democrats' minority leader in the Senate, Tom Daschle, who lost to Republican John Thune. It is the first time that a Democratic minority leader has lost his seat in the Senate.
While the turnout was as high as had been predicted it did not benefit the Democrats as most pollsters had predicted. Thousands of voters lined up for hours to cast their ballot, reflecting the significance of Tuesdays' elections and the deep sense of division among an increasingly polarised electorate. There were, however, no reports of clashes between supporters of the two candidates. The electoral process ran smoothly despite fears that disputes similar to those that took place in Florida in 2000 would be repeated when Democrats alleged many of their supporters were not allowed to vote. Both Republicans and Democrats had mobilised thousands of voters in the most contested states in anticipation of such problems but there were few incidents reported.
With Bush almost certain that he will be re-elected for a second four-year term his toughest challenge is expected to be restoring unity among Americans and patching Washington's damaged relations with its allies. The first indication of what the next four years hold will come when the new cabinet is announced. Will he insist on keeping all the hawkish neo- conservatives who many hold responsible for the current mess in Iraq?


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