Democratic challenger John Kerry is beginning to make progress, but George W Bush still has a distinct advantage in the American South, reports Paul Wulfsberg from Nashville With five months left until the US presidential elections, early polls show presumed Democratic nominee Senator John Kerry in a neck-and-neck race with Republican incumbent George W Bush. With the outcome all but assured in many staunchly Democratic or Republican states, both campaigns are focussing on a number of "battleground states". Kerry, a northerner, is contesting areas of the South, a conservative region in which George W Bush swept all 11 states in the last election. Southern Democrats, while sharing their party's economic philosophy, have often sided with Republicans on social issues such as abortion, gay rights and gun control. For nearly a century after the end of the Civil War in 1865, Southern working-class whites were stalwart Democrats. In the 1960s, however, the ascendant liberal wing of the Democratic Party pushed through civil rights legislation, and Southern Democrats began to defect to the Republican Party. "In 2000, Bush defeated Gore in the South by 70 per cent to 27 per cent among white male Southerners," observed Ferrel Guillory, director of the Programme on Southern Politics, Media and Political Life at the University of North Carolina. "Northern Democrats have not been regarded by large numbers of white Southern voters as culturally aligned." Kerry has been trying to woo these more conservative voters without alienating the left wing of his party. Distancing himself from most liberals on the sensitive issue of gay marriages in his home state of Massachusetts, legalised on 17 May, Kerry endorsed a state constitutional amendment that would outlaw same-sex marriages. His pro-gun control record is widely considered a net liability in the South. Eager to dispel many Southerners' wariness towards his steadfast environmentalism, Kerry posed for the cameras hunting pheasants in Iowa and has proclaimed himself "a life-long hunter and fisherman". Although many Southerners perceive Kerry as too liberal, political observers are not writing off Kerry's chances to pick up a few Southern states. "His best asset is his personal military experience," David Lublin, an associate professor in the School of Public Affairs at the American University, told Al- Ahram Weekly. Serving on a Navy Swift boat during the Vietnam War, Kerry earned a Silver Star, a Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts. Kerry's network of fellow Vietnam veterans has proved formidable in its grassroots mobilising ability, while also offering him a defence against Republican accusations that a liberal Democrat would be incompetent as commander-in- chief during a time of war. The South has a significant number of veterans: Florida alone is home to 1.9 million of the 26 million in the US. In the midst of a halting economic recovery and political turmoil in Iraq, President Bush's approval ratings have continued to spiral downward, from 67 per cent at the onset of war in Iraq last March to 46 per cent at the end of April this year. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Bush's sinking popularity has not directly translated into increased support for Kerry. Many moderates and some conservatives are losing faith in Bush but still have a dislike for the Massachusetts senator. The rapidly growing South, having picked up six electoral votes since the last election, is particularly important in the battle for the White House. The 11 states that seceded from the US in 1861 now have 153 of the total 538 electoral votes, more than half of the 270 needed for victory. The only Democrats to win the presidency since the 1960s -- Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 -- were all Southerners themselves and carried at least four Southern states each. While Kerry has promised to campaign vigorously across the South -- backtracking on a statement early in the primaries that "everybody always makes the mistake of looking South" -- in practice he will likely focus on Florida, Louisiana, and Arkansas. These are three of the 19 battleground states currently targeted in a $25 million advertising campaign. The Kerry campaign also has modest hopes in Tennessee, North Carolina and Virginia, and may consider stepping up its efforts in those states. "It's inconceivable that the Democratic Party will write off the South -- it's a third of the nation," said Alexander Lamis, associate professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University. In Louisiana, polls have shown Bush leading Kerry by 10 to 15 percentage points. He won the state in 2000 by a margin of 7.7 percentage points. Nonetheless, the Kerry campaign decided to put up a fight, with the senator visiting Louisiana three times in the last two months. "He may just want to put President Bush on the defensive without having a real chance of winning," said Lublin. Bush has returned fire, giving a speech and conducting a fund-raiser in Louisiana on 21 May. According to the Washington-based Pew Research Center, the number of undecided voters in the state has declined from 29 per cent to 22 per cent, an unusually low figure for so early in the campaign. Accordingly, turnout is becoming a critical factor. The black vote in Louisiana, which is expected to be well over 95 per cent Democratic and comprise at least 30 per cent of the total votes cast, could well save Kerry. However, the senator is also reaching out to working-class whites who have been hard-hit by job losses in the manufacturing sector. "The South is going through a difficult economic transition, and the Democratic Party is positioned to talk to Southern voters about its record of creating jobs," said Guillory. Democrat Bill Clinton, who emphasised economic growth , won Louisiana in both 1992 and 1996. In 2000, Bush claimed a controversial victory in Florida by a margin of 537 votes out of nearly six million cast, setting the stage for a bitter struggle in 2004. With 27 electoral votes, Florida is the second-largest former Confederate state, behind Texas with 34 electoral votes. While Florida's northern Panhandle is culturally and demographically similar to the rest of the South, southern Florida has large numbers of retired Northerners who give the Democratic Party a boost. A complicating factor is that the powerful leadership of the state's 833,000 Cuban-Americans will react unfavourably towards any candidate perceived as too lenient in dealing with Cuban President Fidel Castro. The ideological and cultural divide between North and South has led some observers to suggest that Kerry nominates a personable, middle-of-the-road Southerner, such as North Carolina Senator John Edwards or Arkansas General Wesley Clark, as a vice presidential candidate. Such a candidate might also appeal to moderate voters in other parts of the country, as Lublin points out. "If he picks Senator Edwards, it's not because he hopes to win North Carolina, but rather because of battleground states such as Ohio and Missouri that have Southern characteristics and would like Edwards. He may simply pick someone who strengthens his appeal at large." Kerry must perform a delicate balancing act between a large radicalised segment of his own party, furious at Bush but lukewarm towards Kerry, and more conservative voters who are still undecided. Democrat Al Gore's fiery speech in New York on 26 May appears to be an attempt to solidify Kerry's support among hard-core liberals. Gore called for the resignation of most top national security officials and labelled the war in Iraq as "the worst strategic fiasco in the history of the United States". Gore's speech may help mollify liberals who want the senator to take a stronger stance against the war in Iraq. Gore's position may also allow Kerry to appear moderate in comparison, since Kerry is not demanding a swift withdrawal of US troops. However, a too close association with Gore could backfire if moderate voters perceive Gore -- and by extension, Kerry -- as too liberal.
